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You are viewing Micro News from Thursday, Feb 13, 2014 - View all recent Micro News
  • 2/13/14
    Bond Markets Stronger After 30yr Auction

    The 30yr Bond Auction was decent though not stellar.  Demand was a bit lower than average, but so was the awarded yield.  Additionally, a larger-than-normal portion of the demand was accounted  for by indirect bidders, which suggests healthier demand for the debt outside the primary dealers (typically a proxy for foreign buying).

    10yr yields moved down to 2.73 from 2.748 immediately following the auction.  They consolidated there and just now broke to 2.728--new lows for the day.

    MBS moved modestly higher, falling in line with previous highs at 104-15 in Fannie 4.0s.  They'll likely move higher if Treasuries hold this break below 2.73.  Positive reprices aren't out of the question, but not likely to be widespread if they're seen at all.  Another 2 ticks of improvement would make them more likely.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 2/13/14
    Bond Markets Stronger Overnight, Stronger Still Following Data

    Treasuries opened in weaker territory in Asia but then began slogging back toward unchanged levels by European hours.  Strength in  British and German debt after yesterday's rout helped Treasuries move into positive territory by the domestic open.  From there, it's been moderately weaker Jobless Claims and much weaker Retail Sales pushing both Treasuries and MBS beyond yesterday's strongest levels.

    Fannie 4.0s are up 9 ticks to 104-12 and 10yr yields are down 2bps to 2.7428.  Closing below 2.75 today is important in order to avoid negative technical implications.

    Here's a recap of the data.

    Retail Sales

    • January Sales -0.4 vs +0.0 forecast
    • Excluding autos 0.0 vs +0.1 forecast
    • Excluding autos/building supplies/gasoline -0.3 vs +0.2 forecast
    • Our take on share of market movement: 7/10.  Claims certainly started things off, but Retail Sales reported a bit late, making it's impact more discrete and noticeable.
    • Full Release

    Jobless Claims

    • 339k vs 330k forecast, 331k previously
    • Continued Claims 2.953 mln vs 2.964 mln forecast
    • Our take on share of market movement: 3/10.  This was close enough to consensus not to be a significant source of inspiration.  Nonetheless, markets have been hungry for data and the moderate weakness here made for moderate strength in bond markets, or at least gave the green light to the overnight predisposition toward strength.
    • Full Release
    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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  • 2/13/14

    The 30yr Bond Auction was decent though not stellar.  Demand was a bit lower than average, but so was the awarded yield.  Additionally, a larger-than-normal portion of the demand was accounted  for by indirect bidders, which suggests healthier demand for the debt outside the primary dealers (typically a proxy for foreign buying).

    10yr yields moved down to 2.73 from 2.748 immediately following the auction.  They consolidated there and just now broke to 2.728--new lows for the day.

    MBS moved modestly higher, falling in line with previous highs at 104-15 in Fannie 4.0s.  They'll likely move higher if Treasuries hold this break below 2.73.  Positive reprices aren't out of the question, but not likely to be widespread if they're seen at all.  Another 2 ticks of improvement would make them more likely.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 2/13/14

    Treasuries opened in weaker territory in Asia but then began slogging back toward unchanged levels by European hours.  Strength in  British and German debt after yesterday's rout helped Treasuries move into positive territory by the domestic open.  From there, it's been moderately weaker Jobless Claims and much weaker Retail Sales pushing both Treasuries and MBS beyond yesterday's strongest levels.

    Fannie 4.0s are up 9 ticks to 104-12 and 10yr yields are down 2bps to 2.7428.  Closing below 2.75 today is important in order to avoid negative technical implications.

    Here's a recap of the data.

    Retail Sales

    • January Sales -0.4 vs +0.0 forecast
    • Excluding autos 0.0 vs +0.1 forecast
    • Excluding autos/building supplies/gasoline -0.3 vs +0.2 forecast
    • Our take on share of market movement: 7/10.  Claims certainly started things off, but Retail Sales reported a bit late, making it's impact more discrete and noticeable.
    • Full Release

    Jobless Claims

    • 339k vs 330k forecast, 331k previously
    • Continued Claims 2.953 mln vs 2.964 mln forecast
    • Our take on share of market movement: 3/10.  This was close enough to consensus not to be a significant source of inspiration.  Nonetheless, markets have been hungry for data and the moderate weakness here made for moderate strength in bond markets, or at least gave the green light to the overnight predisposition toward strength.
    • Full Release
    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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