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You are viewing Micro News from Friday, Jan 24, 2014 - View all recent Micro News
  • 1/24/14
    'Tail Risk' Situation Boosts Bonds; Strongest Levels of The Day

    In a bell-curve distribution of possible and probable outcomes, there is a good probability that outcomes (in this case, that's a generic term for "events that can affect bond markets") will fall within a certain range of positivity and negativity.   Tail risk is the risk that events fall outside that range of probability.  Such events are less common/less-expected, but have a bigger impact on markets. 

    tail risk

    Right now, bond markets are realizing positive tail risk from a particularly sharp sell-off in global risk assets.  Even if we simply look at S&Ps, the situation is serious.  They're in the midst of their worst 2-day sell-off since the June 19th FOMC Announcement.  Emerging markets are faring even worse.

    Treasuries and other safe-haven assets are beneficiaries.  MBS are doing their best to keep pace and today has been better than yesterday in that  regard.  Fannie 4.0s are up 3/8ths of a point now at 104-16 and 10yr yields are down 4.6 bps at 2.73%.  The rally is only really limited by how panicked global risk assets can become. 

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 1/24/14
    Big Improvements Overnight Moderating Into Domestic Session

    It's another data-free session and global financial markets have taken the opportunity to freak out like it's going out of style.  Risk assets were pummeled relentlessly and safe-havens experienced mind-bending improvements.  For instance, 10yr yields, who--a few days ago--were facing resistance at 2.82, fell all the way to 2.706!  All of this has been in lock step with stocks, Yen, and 47 other polarized risk assets.

    Treasury Stocks Yen

    The above chart of Treasuries, S&P, and Yen is a few minutes old now.  They've all bounced in unison, but just slightly.  Point being, we can't yet conclude that the mind-bending move lower is unequivocally giving way to a mind-bending move in the other direction.

    Then there's MBS.  Poor old MBS are just now barely breaking above yesterday's highs (whereas Treasuries haven't been in yesterday's territory at all since before 3am).  As we discussed yesterday, MBS just can't and won't keep up with Treasuries into these risk-off moves. 

    The highest probability bet for the rest of the day is for bond markets to continue following stocks et. al.  The overnight rally was very opportunistic, and the fact that it deviates so far from expected ranges means that trading positions get forcibly "stopped-out."  In other words, anyone with a trading position that benefits from higher rates is forced to become a buyer at some point if rates move far enough lower.  That phenomenon (forced short-covering) along with simply algorithmic buying due to technical tripwires being crosses, is happening en masse today.  When this panic has run its course, there's a risk the opposite will happen en masse.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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  • 1/24/14

    In a bell-curve distribution of possible and probable outcomes, there is a good probability that outcomes (in this case, that's a generic term for "events that can affect bond markets") will fall within a certain range of positivity and negativity.   Tail risk is the risk that events fall outside that range of probability.  Such events are less common/less-expected, but have a bigger impact on markets. 

    tail risk

    Right now, bond markets are realizing positive tail risk from a particularly sharp sell-off in global risk assets.  Even if we simply look at S&Ps, the situation is serious.  They're in the midst of their worst 2-day sell-off since the June 19th FOMC Announcement.  Emerging markets are faring even worse.

    Treasuries and other safe-haven assets are beneficiaries.  MBS are doing their best to keep pace and today has been better than yesterday in that  regard.  Fannie 4.0s are up 3/8ths of a point now at 104-16 and 10yr yields are down 4.6 bps at 2.73%.  The rally is only really limited by how panicked global risk assets can become. 

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 1/24/14

    It's another data-free session and global financial markets have taken the opportunity to freak out like it's going out of style.  Risk assets were pummeled relentlessly and safe-havens experienced mind-bending improvements.  For instance, 10yr yields, who--a few days ago--were facing resistance at 2.82, fell all the way to 2.706!  All of this has been in lock step with stocks, Yen, and 47 other polarized risk assets.

    Treasury Stocks Yen

    The above chart of Treasuries, S&P, and Yen is a few minutes old now.  They've all bounced in unison, but just slightly.  Point being, we can't yet conclude that the mind-bending move lower is unequivocally giving way to a mind-bending move in the other direction.

    Then there's MBS.  Poor old MBS are just now barely breaking above yesterday's highs (whereas Treasuries haven't been in yesterday's territory at all since before 3am).  As we discussed yesterday, MBS just can't and won't keep up with Treasuries into these risk-off moves. 

    The highest probability bet for the rest of the day is for bond markets to continue following stocks et. al.  The overnight rally was very opportunistic, and the fact that it deviates so far from expected ranges means that trading positions get forcibly "stopped-out."  In other words, anyone with a trading position that benefits from higher rates is forced to become a buyer at some point if rates move far enough lower.  That phenomenon (forced short-covering) along with simply algorithmic buying due to technical tripwires being crosses, is happening en masse today.  When this panic has run its course, there's a risk the opposite will happen en masse.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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