ECON: Consumer Confidence Slightly Higher Than Expected
- Main index 81.5 vs 79.0 forecast
- Last month revised to 81.0 from 80.3 previously
- Present Situation Index 70.7 vs 73.6 previously
- Expectation Index 88.7 vs 86.0 previously
- Jobs "hard to get" 33.0 vs 35.2 previously, lowest since Sept 2008
Market reaction: Treasuries weaken just over 1bp in 10yr yields. MBS shed a few ticks but neither are following through with further selling as yet.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in July, increased slightly in August. The Index now stands at 81.5 (1985=100), up from 81.0 in July. The Present Situation Index decreased to 70.7 from 73.6. The Expectations Index increased to 88.7 from 86.0 last month.
The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was August 15.
Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators: “Consumer Confidence increased slightly in August, a result of improving short-term expectations. Consumers were moderately more upbeat about business, job and earning prospects. In fact, income expectations, which had declined sharply earlier this year with the payroll tax hike, have rebounded to their highest level in two and a half years. Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, on the other hand, was somewhat less favorable than last month.”
Consumers’ assessment of current conditions moderately declined. Those stating business conditions are “good” decreased to 18.4 percent from 20.8 percent, while those stating business conditions are “bad” was virtually unchanged at 24.8 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was mixed. Those claiming jobs are “plentiful” decreased to 11.4 percent from 12.3 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” declined to 33.0 percent from 35.2 percent.