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You are viewing Micro News from Tuesday, Mar 19, 2013 - View all recent Micro News
  • 3/19/13
    This alert is more of an update to the previous update...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 3/19/13
    Bond Market Gains Holding Ground Amid Volatility
    The day thus far has been a prodigious parade of Cyprus-related headlines with the most recent few falling on mostly deaf ears as domestic markets reach the burnout stages of their attention span. The whole universe of "risk" bottomed out in unison around 1:30pm as stock prices, Euros, Bund yields, and US Treasuries all hit their session lows and slowly began marching in the other direction.

    For MBS, this also marked the highs in terms of price with Fannie 3.0s touching 103-07. Since then, we've gotten one more headline:

    RTRS- - ECB SAYS TAKES NOTE OF CYPRUS PARLIAMENT VOTE, REAFFIRMS COMMITMENT TO PROVIDE LIQUIDITY AS NEEDED WITHIN RULES

    This understandably spooked bond markets, but the reaction was surprisingly brief. 10's Spiked quickly from 1.91 to 1.92 and are now back down to 1.905. Equities spiked. The Euro spiked BIG. Now both of those are at least halfway back down to previous levels.

    MBS dipped from 103-04 to 103-02 and are back to 103-04. It's too soon to tell if the ECB headline is going to have some sort of lasting effect that solidifies the reversal, but at the very least, that's a possibility. That said, the predominant momentum looks to be more sideways (as opposed to higher in rate or lower in MBS Prices) for now, possibly even turning back toward bullishness. We'll let you know if that changes.
    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 3/19/13
    Though there are no confirmed statements, the Cypriot...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 3/19/13
    Holding Modest Gains, Waiting For Cyprus To Vote
    Bond markets began the overnight session weaker, heading higher in yield for most of the Asian trading hours. The stock lever was well-connected and stock prices began to fall along with Treasury yields. This was most salient after a spokesman for Cyprus said that Parliament would not be able to approve the bank levy.

    Several hours later, details emerged regarding some structural changes to the plan that would spare deposits under €20k, and adjust the percentage to 6.7 for deposits from €20k - €100k. Anything over that would get hit with 9.9%. We'd emphasize the murkiness of the details at this point though. Even within the past hour, other reputable sources are mentioning that Cyprus considering removing the levy on everything under €100k and raising it over the previously sacred 10% mark on deposits over €100k. This sounds a lot like the 15.6% plan mentioned in wires late yesterday.

    Whatever the case, the vote--if it happens today--should be coming up in a few hours and more than anything, this dominates the market's focus.

    Housing Starts data was completely glossed-over in terms of market reaction. S&P Futures bottomed out at 6:50am and moved back to overnight highs, being careful not to break them. Treasuries acquiesced to the "risk-on" bounce, but certainly haven't followed equities, preferring instead to simply level off in the middle of yesterday's overnight session.

    This leaves 10yr yields at 1.9355 and Fannie 3.0s up 3 ticks at 103-01. S&P futures are 2.75 pts higher at 1549.50 vs overnight and AM highs near 1551.

    There are no further economic reports out today, and to reiterate, we're waiting on Cyprus news, including, but not limited to (and not necessarily counting on) a parliamentary vote.
    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 3/19/13
    ECON: Housing Starts Slightly Higher Than Expected
    - Feb Starts 917k vs 915k Consensus
    - Jan Starts revised to 910k from 890k
    - Permits 946k vs 925k Consensus
    - Both metrics highest since June 2008
    - Market Reaction: Housing Starts traditionally have a high margin of error. This print is no exception with a ±13.7% on Starts. Even then, we wouldn't expect a major reaction to this data given the other events in play r soon to be in play (Cyprus, FOMC...)

    The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for February 2013:

    BUILDING PERMITS
    Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 946,000. This is 4.6 percent (±0.8%) above the revised January rate of 904,000 and is 33.8 percent (±1.4%) above the February 2012 estimate of 707,000. Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 600,000; this is 2.7 percent (±0.7%) above the revised January figure of 584,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 316,000 in February.

    HOUSING STARTS
    Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 917,000. This is 0.8 percent (±10.6%)* above the revised January estimate of 910,000 and is 27.7 percent (±13.7%) above the February 2012 rate of 718,000. Single-family housing starts in February were at a rate of 618,000; this is 0.5 percent (±12.1%)* above the revised January figure of 615,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 285,000.

    HOUSING COMPLETIONS
    Privately-owned housing completions in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 711,000. This is 0.6 percent (±10.0%)* below the revised January estimate of 715,000, but is 24.3 percent (±12.2%) above the February 2012 rate of 572,000. Single-family housing completions in February were at a rate of 574,000; this is 3.6 percent (±11.7%)* above the revised January rate of 554,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 130,000.
    Category: MBS, ECON
    Share:   
 
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  • 3/19/13
    This alert is more of an update to the previous update...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 3/19/13
    The day thus far has been a prodigious parade of Cyprus-related headlines with the most recent few falling on mostly deaf ears as domestic markets reach the burnout stages of their attention span. The whole universe of "risk" bottomed out in unison around 1:30pm as stock prices, Euros, Bund yields, and US Treasuries all hit their session lows and slowly began marching in the other direction.

    For MBS, this also marked the highs in terms of price with Fannie 3.0s touching 103-07. Since then, we've gotten one more headline:

    RTRS- - ECB SAYS TAKES NOTE OF CYPRUS PARLIAMENT VOTE, REAFFIRMS COMMITMENT TO PROVIDE LIQUIDITY AS NEEDED WITHIN RULES

    This understandably spooked bond markets, but the reaction was surprisingly brief. 10's Spiked quickly from 1.91 to 1.92 and are now back down to 1.905. Equities spiked. The Euro spiked BIG. Now both of those are at least halfway back down to previous levels.

    MBS dipped from 103-04 to 103-02 and are back to 103-04. It's too soon to tell if the ECB headline is going to have some sort of lasting effect that solidifies the reversal, but at the very least, that's a possibility. That said, the predominant momentum looks to be more sideways (as opposed to higher in rate or lower in MBS Prices) for now, possibly even turning back toward bullishness. We'll let you know if that changes.
    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 3/19/13
    Though there are no confirmed statements, the Cypriot...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 3/19/13
    Bond markets began the overnight session weaker, heading higher in yield for most of the Asian trading hours. The stock lever was well-connected and stock prices began to fall along with Treasury yields. This was most salient after a spokesman for Cyprus said that Parliament would not be able to approve the bank levy.

    Several hours later, details emerged regarding some structural changes to the plan that would spare deposits under €20k, and adjust the percentage to 6.7 for deposits from €20k - €100k. Anything over that would get hit with 9.9%. We'd emphasize the murkiness of the details at this point though. Even within the past hour, other reputable sources are mentioning that Cyprus considering removing the levy on everything under €100k and raising it over the previously sacred 10% mark on deposits over €100k. This sounds a lot like the 15.6% plan mentioned in wires late yesterday.

    Whatever the case, the vote--if it happens today--should be coming up in a few hours and more than anything, this dominates the market's focus.

    Housing Starts data was completely glossed-over in terms of market reaction. S&P Futures bottomed out at 6:50am and moved back to overnight highs, being careful not to break them. Treasuries acquiesced to the "risk-on" bounce, but certainly haven't followed equities, preferring instead to simply level off in the middle of yesterday's overnight session.

    This leaves 10yr yields at 1.9355 and Fannie 3.0s up 3 ticks at 103-01. S&P futures are 2.75 pts higher at 1549.50 vs overnight and AM highs near 1551.

    There are no further economic reports out today, and to reiterate, we're waiting on Cyprus news, including, but not limited to (and not necessarily counting on) a parliamentary vote.
    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 3/19/13
    - Feb Starts 917k vs 915k Consensus
    - Jan Starts revised to 910k from 890k
    - Permits 946k vs 925k Consensus
    - Both metrics highest since June 2008
    - Market Reaction: Housing Starts traditionally have a high margin of error. This print is no exception with a ±13.7% on Starts. Even then, we wouldn't expect a major reaction to this data given the other events in play r soon to be in play (Cyprus, FOMC...)

    The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for February 2013:

    BUILDING PERMITS
    Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 946,000. This is 4.6 percent (±0.8%) above the revised January rate of 904,000 and is 33.8 percent (±1.4%) above the February 2012 estimate of 707,000. Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 600,000; this is 2.7 percent (±0.7%) above the revised January figure of 584,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 316,000 in February.

    HOUSING STARTS
    Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 917,000. This is 0.8 percent (±10.6%)* above the revised January estimate of 910,000 and is 27.7 percent (±13.7%) above the February 2012 rate of 718,000. Single-family housing starts in February were at a rate of 618,000; this is 0.5 percent (±12.1%)* above the revised January figure of 615,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 285,000.

    HOUSING COMPLETIONS
    Privately-owned housing completions in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 711,000. This is 0.6 percent (±10.0%)* below the revised January estimate of 715,000, but is 24.3 percent (±12.2%) above the February 2012 rate of 572,000. Single-family housing completions in February were at a rate of 574,000; this is 3.6 percent (±11.7%)* above the revised January rate of 554,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 130,000.
    Category: MBS, ECON
    Share:   
  • 3/19/13
    ECON: Housing Starts Slightly Higher Than Expected
    - Feb Starts 917k vs 915k Consensus
    - Jan Starts revised to 910k from 890k
    - Permits 946k vs 925k Consensus
    - Both metrics highest since June 2008
    - Market Reaction: Housing Starts traditionally have a high margin of error. This print is no exception with a ±13.7% on Starts. Even then, we wouldn't expect a major reaction to this data given the other events in play r soon to be in play (Cyprus, FOMC...)

    The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for February 2013:

    BUILDING PERMITS
    Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 946,000. This is 4.6 percent (±0.8%) above the revised January rate of 904,000 and is 33.8 percent (±1.4%) above the February 2012 estimate of 707,000. Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 600,000; this is 2.7 percent (±0.7%) above the revised January figure of 584,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 316,000 in February.

    HOUSING STARTS
    Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 917,000. This is 0.8 percent (±10.6%)* above the revised January estimate of 910,000 and is 27.7 percent (±13.7%) above the February 2012 rate of 718,000. Single-family housing starts in February were at a rate of 618,000; this is 0.5 percent (±12.1%)* above the revised January figure of 615,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 285,000.

    HOUSING COMPLETIONS
    Privately-owned housing completions in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 711,000. This is 0.6 percent (±10.0%)* below the revised January estimate of 715,000, but is 24.3 percent (±12.2%) above the February 2012 rate of 572,000. Single-family housing completions in February were at a rate of 574,000; this is 3.6 percent (±11.7%)* above the revised January rate of 554,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 130,000.
    Category: MBS, ECON
    Share:   
 
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