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You are viewing Micro News from Tuesday, Mar 12, 2013 - View all recent Micro News
  • 3/12/13
    MBS At Highs Though Ranges Remain Narrow
    Treasuries have cut a linear path back to the doorstep of Friday's NFP sell-off. In the hours leading up to Friday's NFP, 10yr yields broke above 2.012 around 6:30am and with only one brief exception, never made it back below. 2.012 came into play again today as the lowest yield seen just before the noon hour.

    This raised some back-of-mind concerns that it could again act as resistance and offer some motivation for afternoon weakness. Thus far, this hasn't been the case as 10's retraced only to 2.0260 and are slightly lower at the moment at 2.0226 . Equities markets are forming consolidative triangles right in line with Friday afternoon's highs, ostensibly for a break toward yesterday's lows or highs by today's close.

    MBS continue to underperform day-over-day but have seen steady gains in a narrow range. Fannie 3.0s are up 8 ticks in today, cutting a 4 ticks range from 102-07 to 102-11. The current stability and moderate gains are entering territory that suggests a positive reprice or two, though we'd emphasize that this is less likely than the charts might make it seem (due to the narrow ranges). We also have a cautious eye on 10's unwillingness to break pre-NFP technical levels.

    The stock lever hasn't been overly connected today, but the bounces at the lows of the day (in TSY yields and stock prices) did coincide. The eventual break out of this mid-day triangle in equities could be the next source of guidance for indecisive bond markets.
    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 3/12/13
    Bond Markets Improve All Night, Holding Gains This AM
    Although Treasuries moved slightly higher in yield during the first few hours of the overnight session, the rest saw better buying. This was especially true during European hours, but more importantly, we're hearing that it's been true in general since Friday's NFP. That bodes well for the current grind over 2.00% to be something other than a consolidation before another move higher, IF we can avoid any major shocks between now and the next big-ticket market mover.

    As for what that mover might be, it's still up for grabs at the moment, but the list includes the Italian political landscape, FOMC next week, tradeflow/technical snowballs, or even a freakishly huge deviation from expectations in tomorrow's Retail Sales. The one mover to rule them all would be a big miss or big beat in the next payrolls report, but given our current distance from that, we're guessing 2.0 or 2.10 will have given out well in advance.

    So far this morning, we're a lot closer to testing 2.0% with 10's currently down 3 bps at 2.096 at the moment and Fannie 3.0s up 6 ticks at 102-09. Equities futures are right in line with 4pm levels and strength/stability there doesn't seem to be much of a concern for bond markets, both in general and especially post-NFP. There's no significant economic data on tap this morning and the 3yr Auction at 1pm is perennially likely to be a non-event.
    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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  • 3/12/13
    Treasuries have cut a linear path back to the doorstep of Friday's NFP sell-off. In the hours leading up to Friday's NFP, 10yr yields broke above 2.012 around 6:30am and with only one brief exception, never made it back below. 2.012 came into play again today as the lowest yield seen just before the noon hour.

    This raised some back-of-mind concerns that it could again act as resistance and offer some motivation for afternoon weakness. Thus far, this hasn't been the case as 10's retraced only to 2.0260 and are slightly lower at the moment at 2.0226 . Equities markets are forming consolidative triangles right in line with Friday afternoon's highs, ostensibly for a break toward yesterday's lows or highs by today's close.

    MBS continue to underperform day-over-day but have seen steady gains in a narrow range. Fannie 3.0s are up 8 ticks in today, cutting a 4 ticks range from 102-07 to 102-11. The current stability and moderate gains are entering territory that suggests a positive reprice or two, though we'd emphasize that this is less likely than the charts might make it seem (due to the narrow ranges). We also have a cautious eye on 10's unwillingness to break pre-NFP technical levels.

    The stock lever hasn't been overly connected today, but the bounces at the lows of the day (in TSY yields and stock prices) did coincide. The eventual break out of this mid-day triangle in equities could be the next source of guidance for indecisive bond markets.
    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 3/12/13
    Although Treasuries moved slightly higher in yield during the first few hours of the overnight session, the rest saw better buying. This was especially true during European hours, but more importantly, we're hearing that it's been true in general since Friday's NFP. That bodes well for the current grind over 2.00% to be something other than a consolidation before another move higher, IF we can avoid any major shocks between now and the next big-ticket market mover.

    As for what that mover might be, it's still up for grabs at the moment, but the list includes the Italian political landscape, FOMC next week, tradeflow/technical snowballs, or even a freakishly huge deviation from expectations in tomorrow's Retail Sales. The one mover to rule them all would be a big miss or big beat in the next payrolls report, but given our current distance from that, we're guessing 2.0 or 2.10 will have given out well in advance.

    So far this morning, we're a lot closer to testing 2.0% with 10's currently down 3 bps at 2.096 at the moment and Fannie 3.0s up 6 ticks at 102-09. Equities futures are right in line with 4pm levels and strength/stability there doesn't seem to be much of a concern for bond markets, both in general and especially post-NFP. There's no significant economic data on tap this morning and the 3yr Auction at 1pm is perennially likely to be a non-event.
    Category: MBS, UPDATE
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