Stronger Overnight, Marginally Weaker To Start
Bond markets began the overnight session in positive territory on weaker Asian equities markets and strengthening in Yen. 10yr yields remained well correlated with Yen throughout the session, with both turning a weaker corner around 4:30am, along with German Bunds. As is frequently the case, Bunds set the tone for most of the European session and led the charge (gently) higher in yield for Treasuries.
10's came in the door almost perfectly in line with yesterday's closing marks, as did MBS, with both weakening slightly before and after stronger-than-expected NY Fed Manufacturing data. Fannie 3.0s began at 102-30+ and are down two ticks to 102-28+ at the moment. S&P's have clawed back from a few points of weakness overnight to sit almost perfectly in line with yesterday's close.
With Empire State out of the way, and the stronger reading having been weathered well by bond markets, attention shifts to Industrial Production at 9:15am followed by an eye on the stock lever at the 9:30 opening bell and Consumer Sentiment at 9:55am.
So far markets are looking "well-behaved," into a 3-day weekend, and our belief in a genuine indecisiveness among traders regarding current levels is playing out well so far. Big surprises in data may change that, and the afternoon before a 3-day weekend can always "leak" in either direction, but apart from those eventualities (and perhaps big G20 headlines), so far, so good.