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You are viewing Micro News from Tuesday, Dec 31, 2013 - View all recent Micro News
  • 12/31/13
    Fannie 4.0s are now down 7 ticks on the day to 102...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
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  • 12/31/13
    ECON: Consumer Confidence Stronger Than Expected
    • Dec Consumer Confidence 78.1 vs 76.0 Forecast
    • Nov revised to 72.0 from 70.4
    • Present Situation 76.2 vs 73.5 in Nov, highest since April 2008
    • Market Reaction: holding post Chicago PMI improvement, leaving us somewhere between the day's highs and lows

    The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had decreased in November, rebounded in December. The Index now stands at 78.1 (1985=100), up from 72.0 in November. The Present Situation Index increased to 76.2 from 73.5. The Expectations Index increased to 79.4 from 71.1 last month.   

    The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was December 17.

    Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference
    Board: “Consumer confidence rebounded in December and is now close to
    pre-government shutdown levels (September 2013, 80.2). Sentiment
    regarding current conditions increased to a 5 ½ year high (April 2008,
    81.9), with consumers attributing the improvement to more favorable
    economic and labor market conditions. Looking ahead, consumers expressed
    a greater degree of confidence in future economic and job prospects,
    but were moderately more pessimistic about their earning prospects.
    Despite the many challenges throughout 2013, consumers are in better
    spirits today than when the year began.”

    Consumer Confidence

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 12/31/13
    ECON: Chicago PMI Weaker Than Expected
    • PMI 59.1 vs 61.0 forecast
    • Employment index 51.6 vs 60.9 previously (lowest since April)
    • Reaction: Bond markets regain some of the ground lost this morning

    The December Chicago Business Barometer softened to 59.1 from 63.0 in November, the second consecutive monthly decline following October’s surge to65.9, the highest since March 2011.

    The moderation in December was led by a second month of slippage in New Orders and declines in four of the five components that comprise the Barometer.

    In spite of December’s slowdown, the Barometer continued to point to reasonably firm growth and the three month average rose to the highest since May 2011.

    Chicago area purchasers continued to report an expansion in business activity,albeit at a slower rate in New Orders, Production and Order Backlogs. Employment fell significantly to just above 50 in December.

    Full Release

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 12/31/13
    ECON: Case Shiller Home Prices Stronger Than Expected
    • October 20-city Home Prices +1.0 vs +0.8 forecast, 1.0 previously  (sept)
    • Non-adjusted +0.2  vs +0.7 forecast
    • +13.6 pct year-over-year vs +13.0 forecast
    • Sept 20-metro area year-on-year home price increase largest since Feb 2006

    Data through October 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted year-over-year gains of 13.6%. This is their highest gain since February 2006 and marks the seventeenth consecutive month that both Composites increased on an annual basis.

    In October 2013, the two Composites showed a small gain of 0.2% for the month. Eighteen cities posted lower monthly rates in October than in September. After 19 months of gains, San Francisco showed a slightly negative return. Phoenix held onto its streak and posted its 25th consecutive increase.

    Full Release

    Case Shiller Home Prices

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 12/31/13
    Holding Moderate Losses After First Data

    Bond markets were weaker in the overnight session, but volume was excruciatingly low with Europe out today and tomorrow for the New Year Holiday.  Additionally, 10yr yields made another "lower high," hitting 3.002 compared to 3.015 in the previous session and 3.02 in the session before that.

    Those highs were seen just after 6:30am and yields have consolidated a bit since then but continue to trade in weaker territory (roughly 2bps or 0.02 higher than yesterday). 

    MBS are moderately weaker with Fannie 4.0s down 3 ticks (3/32nds or .09375) at 103-02. 

    This morning's Case Shiller Home Price data was slightly stronger than expected on a seasonally adjusted basis.  At first glance, it seems to have coincided with some volume and weakness in bonds, but the alignment isn't perfect.  Most of the activity happened in the run-up to the data and "activity" is definitely a stretch in the first place. 

    That said, I wouldn't rule out a bit more activity surround the Chicago PMI data at 9:45am (keep an eye out for volatility at 9:42am as a hint of a big beat/miss) and the Consumer Confidence data at 10am.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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  • 12/31/13
    Fannie 4.0s are now down 7 ticks on the day to 102...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 12/31/13
    • Dec Consumer Confidence 78.1 vs 76.0 Forecast
    • Nov revised to 72.0 from 70.4
    • Present Situation 76.2 vs 73.5 in Nov, highest since April 2008
    • Market Reaction: holding post Chicago PMI improvement, leaving us somewhere between the day's highs and lows

    The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had decreased in November, rebounded in December. The Index now stands at 78.1 (1985=100), up from 72.0 in November. The Present Situation Index increased to 76.2 from 73.5. The Expectations Index increased to 79.4 from 71.1 last month.   

    The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was December 17.

    Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference
    Board: “Consumer confidence rebounded in December and is now close to
    pre-government shutdown levels (September 2013, 80.2). Sentiment
    regarding current conditions increased to a 5 ½ year high (April 2008,
    81.9), with consumers attributing the improvement to more favorable
    economic and labor market conditions. Looking ahead, consumers expressed
    a greater degree of confidence in future economic and job prospects,
    but were moderately more pessimistic about their earning prospects.
    Despite the many challenges throughout 2013, consumers are in better
    spirits today than when the year began.”

    Consumer Confidence

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 12/31/13
    • PMI 59.1 vs 61.0 forecast
    • Employment index 51.6 vs 60.9 previously (lowest since April)
    • Reaction: Bond markets regain some of the ground lost this morning

    The December Chicago Business Barometer softened to 59.1 from 63.0 in November, the second consecutive monthly decline following October’s surge to65.9, the highest since March 2011.

    The moderation in December was led by a second month of slippage in New Orders and declines in four of the five components that comprise the Barometer.

    In spite of December’s slowdown, the Barometer continued to point to reasonably firm growth and the three month average rose to the highest since May 2011.

    Chicago area purchasers continued to report an expansion in business activity,albeit at a slower rate in New Orders, Production and Order Backlogs. Employment fell significantly to just above 50 in December.

    Full Release

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 12/31/13
    • October 20-city Home Prices +1.0 vs +0.8 forecast, 1.0 previously  (sept)
    • Non-adjusted +0.2  vs +0.7 forecast
    • +13.6 pct year-over-year vs +13.0 forecast
    • Sept 20-metro area year-on-year home price increase largest since Feb 2006

    Data through October 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted year-over-year gains of 13.6%. This is their highest gain since February 2006 and marks the seventeenth consecutive month that both Composites increased on an annual basis.

    In October 2013, the two Composites showed a small gain of 0.2% for the month. Eighteen cities posted lower monthly rates in October than in September. After 19 months of gains, San Francisco showed a slightly negative return. Phoenix held onto its streak and posted its 25th consecutive increase.

    Full Release

    Case Shiller Home Prices

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 12/31/13

    Bond markets were weaker in the overnight session, but volume was excruciatingly low with Europe out today and tomorrow for the New Year Holiday.  Additionally, 10yr yields made another "lower high," hitting 3.002 compared to 3.015 in the previous session and 3.02 in the session before that.

    Those highs were seen just after 6:30am and yields have consolidated a bit since then but continue to trade in weaker territory (roughly 2bps or 0.02 higher than yesterday). 

    MBS are moderately weaker with Fannie 4.0s down 3 ticks (3/32nds or .09375) at 103-02. 

    This morning's Case Shiller Home Price data was slightly stronger than expected on a seasonally adjusted basis.  At first glance, it seems to have coincided with some volume and weakness in bonds, but the alignment isn't perfect.  Most of the activity happened in the run-up to the data and "activity" is definitely a stretch in the first place. 

    That said, I wouldn't rule out a bit more activity surround the Chicago PMI data at 9:45am (keep an eye out for volatility at 9:42am as a hint of a big beat/miss) and the Consumer Confidence data at 10am.

    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
 
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