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You are viewing Micro News from Thursday, Dec 12, 2013 - View all recent Micro News
  • 12/12/13
    Market participation dwindled rapidly after the 30yr...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
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  • 12/12/13
    Treasuries Challenging Pre-Auction Levels After Initial Selling Pressure
    Although 30yr WI yields (the "when issued" yields used as a baseline for auction expectations--not seen on the dashboard) aren't yet back to pre-auction levels, 10yr cash yields (seen on the dashboard) are now lower than their 1pm levels.

    Cornerstone MBS Live member Jeff Anderson pointed out earlier that an initial pop of selling could give way to a relief rally considering that this week's Treasury supply needs are out of the way. That assessment is looking good so far.

    10's are down to 2.862 and MBS continue to outperform. Fannie 4.0s are up 1 tick at 103-12, connoting modest positive reprice potential for some lenders.
    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 12/12/13
    Fannie 4.0s are down from 103-11 to 103-07, enough...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 12/12/13
    Weaker After Data but Trying to Bounce Now
    Bond markets were dead quiet overnight, both in terms of volume and volatility. 10yr yields crossed the 8am starting line right where they finished yesterday's race but then began moving slightly higher ahead of the morning's economic data.

    After the stronger-than-expected Retail Sales report, both MBS and Treasuries sold-off at a medium pace. 10's crested 2.87 (vs 2.85 opening levels) and Fannie 4.0s dropped from 103-11 to 103-06. The move ignored the volatile swing in Jobless Claims.

    Selling momentum stalled at 5:45am and has reversed to somewhat positive effect. Fannie 4.0s are back up to 103-10, 1 tick lower on the day. Treasuries haven't clawed back quite as much but are still better off than their post data highs--currently just over 2.86.

    The morning's next data--Business Inventories at 10am--is a 3rd tier market mover at best. The focus for the rest of the day is more appropriately placed on the 30yr Bond Auction. Although details are released at 1pm, it can affect trading beforehand. In general, bond markets are more conservative ahead of a Thursday Treasury auction, provided the auction is close to expectations.
    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 12/12/13
    ECON: Jobless Claims Much Higher Than Expected, but with a Catch
    - Claims 368k vs 320k forecast, 300k previously
    - 4-wk avg 328,750 vs 322,750 previously
    - Continued Claims 2.791 vs 2.75 million forecast
    - Market Reaction: largely discounted due to the fact that claims have been horribly inconsistent into the end of the year between the government shutdown and holidays. Market participants don't read as much into these bigger deviations as the deviations would seem to suggest.

    In the week ending December 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 368,000, an increase of 68,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 300,000. The 4-week moving average was 328,750, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised average of 322,750. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.1 percent for the week ending November 30, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 30 was 2,791,000, an increase of 40,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 2,751,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,793,500, a decrease of 4,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 2,798,250.
    Category: MBS, ECON
    Share:   
  • 12/12/13
    ECON: Retail Sales Stronger Than Expected
    - Sales +0.7 vs +0.6 forecast, biggest rise since June
    - Excluding Autos +0.4 vs +0.2 forecast
    - Market Reaction: Bond markets weaker on this headline as Claims data (which was weaker) is easier to discount due to the holiday schedule causing more issues for the weekly report (whereas Sales is monthly).

    The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $432.3 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 4.7 percent (±0.7%) above November 2012. Total sales for the September through November 2013 period were up 4.1 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The September to October 2013 percent change was revised from +0.4 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.6 percent (±0.3%).

    Retail trade sales were up 0.6 percent (±0.5%) from October 2013, and 4.6 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Auto and other motor vehicle dealers were up 10.9 percent (±2.1%) from November of 2012 and nonstore retailers were up 9.4 percent (±2.1%) from last year.
    Category: MBS, ECON
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  • 12/12/13
    Market participation dwindled rapidly after the 30yr...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 12/12/13
    Although 30yr WI yields (the "when issued" yields used as a baseline for auction expectations--not seen on the dashboard) aren't yet back to pre-auction levels, 10yr cash yields (seen on the dashboard) are now lower than their 1pm levels.

    Cornerstone MBS Live member Jeff Anderson pointed out earlier that an initial pop of selling could give way to a relief rally considering that this week's Treasury supply needs are out of the way. That assessment is looking good so far.

    10's are down to 2.862 and MBS continue to outperform. Fannie 4.0s are up 1 tick at 103-12, connoting modest positive reprice potential for some lenders.
    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 12/12/13
    Fannie 4.0s are down from 103-11 to 103-07, enough...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 12/12/13
    Bond markets were dead quiet overnight, both in terms of volume and volatility. 10yr yields crossed the 8am starting line right where they finished yesterday's race but then began moving slightly higher ahead of the morning's economic data.

    After the stronger-than-expected Retail Sales report, both MBS and Treasuries sold-off at a medium pace. 10's crested 2.87 (vs 2.85 opening levels) and Fannie 4.0s dropped from 103-11 to 103-06. The move ignored the volatile swing in Jobless Claims.

    Selling momentum stalled at 5:45am and has reversed to somewhat positive effect. Fannie 4.0s are back up to 103-10, 1 tick lower on the day. Treasuries haven't clawed back quite as much but are still better off than their post data highs--currently just over 2.86.

    The morning's next data--Business Inventories at 10am--is a 3rd tier market mover at best. The focus for the rest of the day is more appropriately placed on the 30yr Bond Auction. Although details are released at 1pm, it can affect trading beforehand. In general, bond markets are more conservative ahead of a Thursday Treasury auction, provided the auction is close to expectations.
    Category: MBS, UPDATE
    Share:   
  • 12/12/13
    - Claims 368k vs 320k forecast, 300k previously
    - 4-wk avg 328,750 vs 322,750 previously
    - Continued Claims 2.791 vs 2.75 million forecast
    - Market Reaction: largely discounted due to the fact that claims have been horribly inconsistent into the end of the year between the government shutdown and holidays. Market participants don't read as much into these bigger deviations as the deviations would seem to suggest.

    In the week ending December 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 368,000, an increase of 68,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 300,000. The 4-week moving average was 328,750, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised average of 322,750. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.1 percent for the week ending November 30, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 30 was 2,791,000, an increase of 40,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 2,751,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,793,500, a decrease of 4,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 2,798,250.
    Category: MBS, ECON
    Share:   
  • 12/12/13
    - Sales +0.7 vs +0.6 forecast, biggest rise since June
    - Excluding Autos +0.4 vs +0.2 forecast
    - Market Reaction: Bond markets weaker on this headline as Claims data (which was weaker) is easier to discount due to the holiday schedule causing more issues for the weekly report (whereas Sales is monthly).

    The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $432.3 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 4.7 percent (±0.7%) above November 2012. Total sales for the September through November 2013 period were up 4.1 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The September to October 2013 percent change was revised from +0.4 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.6 percent (±0.3%).

    Retail trade sales were up 0.6 percent (±0.5%) from October 2013, and 4.6 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Auto and other motor vehicle dealers were up 10.9 percent (±2.1%) from November of 2012 and nonstore retailers were up 9.4 percent (±2.1%) from last year.
    Category: MBS, ECON
    Share:   
  • 12/12/13
    ECON: Jobless Claims Much Higher Than Expected, but with a Catch
    - Claims 368k vs 320k forecast, 300k previously
    - 4-wk avg 328,750 vs 322,750 previously
    - Continued Claims 2.791 vs 2.75 million forecast
    - Market Reaction: largely discounted due to the fact that claims have been horribly inconsistent into the end of the year between the government shutdown and holidays. Market participants don't read as much into these bigger deviations as the deviations would seem to suggest.

    In the week ending December 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 368,000, an increase of 68,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 300,000. The 4-week moving average was 328,750, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's revised average of 322,750. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.1 percent for the week ending November 30, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending November 30 was 2,791,000, an increase of 40,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 2,751,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,793,500, a decrease of 4,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 2,798,250.
    Category: MBS, ECON
    Share:   
  • 12/12/13
    ECON: Retail Sales Stronger Than Expected
    - Sales +0.7 vs +0.6 forecast, biggest rise since June
    - Excluding Autos +0.4 vs +0.2 forecast
    - Market Reaction: Bond markets weaker on this headline as Claims data (which was weaker) is easier to discount due to the holiday schedule causing more issues for the weekly report (whereas Sales is monthly).

    The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $432.3 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 4.7 percent (±0.7%) above November 2012. Total sales for the September through November 2013 period were up 4.1 percent (±0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The September to October 2013 percent change was revised from +0.4 percent (±0.5%)* to +0.6 percent (±0.3%).

    Retail trade sales were up 0.6 percent (±0.5%) from October 2013, and 4.6 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Auto and other motor vehicle dealers were up 10.9 percent (±2.1%) from November of 2012 and nonstore retailers were up 9.4 percent (±2.1%) from last year.
    Category: MBS, ECON
    Share:   
 
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