Slight Bounce Back After Significantly Weaker Opening Levels
While it doesn't necessarily feel safe to hope for any sort of inspiring rally this morning, bond markets have at least held their ground for now.
After weakening at a quick pace for the duration of Friday's session, Monday's overnight trading was only moderately unfriendly by comparison with 10yr yields drifting a bp or two higher by the domestic open. A stronger-than-expected Durable Goods report launched 10's above 2% for the first time since April 2012 and took Fannie 3.0 MBS to 103-00.
The weakest levels were seen just ahead of the opening bell for equities where futures had already apparently topped out after a moderately positive response to Durable Goods. Stocks have generally been falling since then, with S&P futures off 7 points from their pre-open highs.
A weaker-than-expected Pending Home Sales report added to the negative momentum for stocks, but disconcertingly, bond markets haven't been as interested in responding. There's an ominous short term inflection point at 1.97 in 10yr yields, and we have yet to even attempt a break below.
Analogous levels in 3.0 MBS would be 103-09 to 103-10. We're somewhat closer to a test on both sides of the market with 10's at 1.9739 and Fannie 3.0s currently at 103-08. From there, the next pivot points lie at Friday's outer limits of 1.9523 and 103-12 respectively.