Weakness persists for Treasuries and MBS following...

As mentioned as a possibility in the previous alert...

In case you missed the many mentions of it last week...

Of course this COULD be one of those "initial knee...

We have a decent little pop in volume and volatility...

FICO’s quarterly survey of bank risk professionals found a reversal in the sentiment of U.S. lenders, as expectations for loan repayments and credit availability were more upbeat in the first quarter of 2012 than they had been during the previous quarter. The survey, conducted for FICO by the Professional Risk Managers’ International Association (PRMIA), found fewer lenders expecting a rise in delinquencies on home loans, car loans, and small business loans than at any time since FICO launched its survey in early 2010.

Optimism appears to be growing
In the latest survey, the number of respondents expecting mortgage delinquencies to rise during the next six months was 12 percentage points lower than last quarter – dropping from 47 to 35 percent. The survey found 28 percent of respondents expected delinquencies on small business loans to increase, which is 11 percentage points lower than last quarter. And 20 percent of respondents expected delinquencies on car loans to increase, 13 percentage points lower than last quarter.

With regard to credit cards, 32 percent of respondents expected delinquencies to increase. That is an improvement of seven percentage points over last quarter and it is the lowest figure since the second quarter of 2011.

“As unemployment falls, even modestly, and four years of deleveraging begin to pay dividends, bankers are allowing themselves to feel some optimism,” said Dr. Andrew Jennings, chief analytics officer at FICO and head of FICO Labs. “Of course, we’re not out of the woods. Foreclosures continue to put pressure on home prices, and jobs are coming back slowly. But we seem to be headed in the right direction. If we can avoid major bumps in the road, such as a spillover effect from the Eurozone crisis, we should continue to see delinquencies drop.”

Heading into this afternoon's FOMC Minutes, markets...

*+1.3 pct vs +1.5 pct forecast
* last month revised to -1.1 from -1.0
* excluding transportation +0.9 vs -0.5 last month
* excluding Defense +1.1 vs -1.3 last month

New orders for manufactured goods in February, up three of the last four months, increased $6.0 billion or 1.3 percent to $468.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.1 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.9 percent.

Shipments, up nine consecutive months, increased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $462.6 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent January increase.

Unfilled orders, up twenty-two of the last twenty-three months, increased $12.1 billion or 1.3 percent to $931.1 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent January increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.23, up from 6.12 in January.

Inventories, up twenty-eight of the last twenty-nine months, increased $2.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $616.8 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.6 percent January increase. The inventories-toshipments ratio was 1.33, unchanged from January.

Overnight volume was fairly light and 10yr yields held...

FICO’s quarterly survey of bank risk professionals found a reversal in the sentiment of U.S. lenders, as expectations for loan repayments and credit availability were more upbeat in the first quarter of 2012 than they had been during the previous quarter. The survey, conducted for FICO by the Professional Risk Managers’ International Association (PRMIA), found fewer lenders expecting a rise in delinquencies on home loans, car loans, and small business loans than at any time since FICO launched its survey in early 2010.

Optimism appears to be growing
In the latest survey, the number of respondents expecting mortgage delinquencies to rise during the next six months was 12 percentage points lower than last quarter – dropping from 47 to 35 percent. The survey found 28 percent of respondents expected delinquencies on small business loans to increase, which is 11 percentage points lower than last quarter. And 20 percent of respondents expected delinquencies on car loans to increase, 13 percentage points lower than last quarter.

With regard to credit cards, 32 percent of respondents expected delinquencies to increase. That is an improvement of seven percentage points over last quarter and it is the lowest figure since the second quarter of 2011.

“As unemployment falls, even modestly, and four years of deleveraging begin to pay dividends, bankers are allowing themselves to feel some optimism,” said Dr. Andrew Jennings, chief analytics officer at FICO and head of FICO Labs. “Of course, we’re not out of the woods. Foreclosures continue to put pressure on home prices, and jobs are coming back slowly. But we seem to be headed in the right direction. If we can avoid major bumps in the road, such as a spillover effect from the Eurozone crisis, we should continue to see delinquencies drop.”

Weakness persists for Treasuries and MBS following...

As mentioned as a possibility in the previous alert...

In case you missed the many mentions of it last week...

Of course this COULD be one of those "initial knee...

We have a decent little pop in volume and volatility...

FICO’s quarterly survey of bank risk professionals found a reversal in the sentiment of U.S. lenders, as expectations for loan repayments and credit availability were more upbeat in the first quarter of 2012 than they had been during the previous quarter. The survey, conducted for FICO by the Professional Risk Managers’ International Association (PRMIA), found fewer lenders expecting a rise in delinquencies on home loans, car loans, and small business loans than at any time since FICO launched its survey in early 2010.

Optimism appears to be growing
In the latest survey, the number of respondents expecting mortgage delinquencies to rise during the next six months was 12 percentage points lower than last quarter – dropping from 47 to 35 percent. The survey found 28 percent of respondents expected delinquencies on small business loans to increase, which is 11 percentage points lower than last quarter. And 20 percent of respondents expected delinquencies on car loans to increase, 13 percentage points lower than last quarter.

With regard to credit cards, 32 percent of respondents expected delinquencies to increase. That is an improvement of seven percentage points over last quarter and it is the lowest figure since the second quarter of 2011.

“As unemployment falls, even modestly, and four years of deleveraging begin to pay dividends, bankers are allowing themselves to feel some optimism,” said Dr. Andrew Jennings, chief analytics officer at FICO and head of FICO Labs. “Of course, we’re not out of the woods. Foreclosures continue to put pressure on home prices, and jobs are coming back slowly. But we seem to be headed in the right direction. If we can avoid major bumps in the road, such as a spillover effect from the Eurozone crisis, we should continue to see delinquencies drop.”

Heading into this afternoon's FOMC Minutes, markets...

*+1.3 pct vs +1.5 pct forecast
* last month revised to -1.1 from -1.0
* excluding transportation +0.9 vs -0.5 last month
* excluding Defense +1.1 vs -1.3 last month

New orders for manufactured goods in February, up three of the last four months, increased $6.0 billion or 1.3 percent to $468.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.1 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.9 percent.

Shipments, up nine consecutive months, increased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $462.6 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent January increase.

Unfilled orders, up twenty-two of the last twenty-three months, increased $12.1 billion or 1.3 percent to $931.1 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent January increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.23, up from 6.12 in January.

Inventories, up twenty-eight of the last twenty-nine months, increased $2.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $616.8 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.6 percent January increase. The inventories-toshipments ratio was 1.33, unchanged from January.

Overnight volume was fairly light and 10yr yields held...

*+1.3 pct vs +1.5 pct forecast
* last month revised to -1.1 from -1.0
* excluding transportation +0.9 vs -0.5 last month
* excluding Defense +1.1 vs -1.3 last month

New orders for manufactured goods in February, up three of the last four months, increased $6.0 billion or 1.3 percent to $468.4 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. This followed a 1.1 percent January decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.9 percent.

Shipments, up nine consecutive months, increased $0.3 billion or 0.1 percent to $462.6 billion. This followed a 0.6 percent January increase.

Unfilled orders, up twenty-two of the last twenty-three months, increased $12.1 billion or 1.3 percent to $931.1 billion. This followed a 0.7 percent January increase. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.23, up from 6.12 in January.

Inventories, up twenty-eight of the last twenty-nine months, increased $2.2 billion or 0.4 percent to $616.8 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.6 percent January increase. The inventories-toshipments ratio was 1.33, unchanged from January.