"Across all operations in the schedule listed below, the Desk plans to purchase approximately $44 billion and sell approximately $43 billion in Treasury securities over the month of April."

There were some slight changes in the size of the buybacks... 2036-2042 range down from $1.75-2.25 bln to $1.50-2.00 bln. 2020-2022 Buybacks down from $4.50-5.25 bln to $4.25-5.00 bln.

Slightly negative for bond markets here as it decreases the level of guaranteed commitment to the long end, although mitigated by the fact that the overall scheduled buying amount remained unchanged. (In other words, the change is that the Fed is only promising $1.50 bln and $4.25 bln in those two operations whereas before they were in for a quarter of a billion dollars more.

Yet another alert to emphasize the seriousness of the...

This is more of an addendum to the previous alert to...

This isn't necessarily a negative reprice alert, but...

On the one hand, MBS are at their best levels of the...

• RTRS - US Consumer Sentiment Final March 76.2 (Consensus 74.7) Vs Preliminary March 74.3
• RTRS - Current Conditions Index Final March 86.0 (Consensus 84.5) Vs Preliminary March 84.2
• RTRS - Consumer Expectations Index Final March 69.8 (Consensus 68.0) Vs Preliminary March 68.0
• RTRS - 12-Month Economic Outlook Index Final March 79 Vs Preliminary March 74
• RTRS - 1-Year Inflation Outlook Final March 3.9 Pct Vs Preliminary March 4.0 Pct
• RTRS - 5-Year Inflation Outlook Final March 3.0 Pct Vs Preliminary March 3.0 Pct
• RTRS - Consumer Sentiment Index And Current Conditions Index At Highest Since February 2011

*PMI at 62.2 vs 63.0 consensus, 64.0 in Feb
*New Orders 63.3 vs 69.2 last time
*Prices Paid 70.1 vs 65.6 in Feb
*Employment Index 56.3 vs 64.2 last time

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the March Chicago Business Barometer paused after February's ten month high. While slowing, the Chicago Business Barometer marked its fifth month above 60, a 2-1/2 year period of expansion and trend data improved. Increases were seen in five of eight Business Activity Indexes, highlighted by significant advances in Prices Paid and Inventories, and a notable lengthening in lead times for Production Material.

So far, this morning is not living up to any expectations...

*spending up 0.8 vs 0.6 consensus
*income up 0.2 vs 0.4 consensus
*core PCE price index +0.1, as expected
*Core PCE year-over-year up 2.3 vs 2.4 consensus

Personal income increased $28.2 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $18.9 billion, or 0.2 percent, in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $86.0 billion, or 0.8 percent. In January, personal income increased $26.5 billion, or 0.2 percent, DPI increased $5.0 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and PCE increased $40.9 billion, or 0.4 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real disposable income decreased 0.1 percent in February, compared with a decrease of 0.2 percent in January. Real PCE increased 0.5 percent, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent.

"Across all operations in the schedule listed below, the Desk plans to purchase approximately $44 billion and sell approximately $43 billion in Treasury securities over the month of April."

There were some slight changes in the size of the buybacks... 2036-2042 range down from $1.75-2.25 bln to $1.50-2.00 bln. 2020-2022 Buybacks down from $4.50-5.25 bln to $4.25-5.00 bln.

Slightly negative for bond markets here as it decreases the level of guaranteed commitment to the long end, although mitigated by the fact that the overall scheduled buying amount remained unchanged. (In other words, the change is that the Fed is only promising $1.50 bln and $4.25 bln in those two operations whereas before they were in for a quarter of a billion dollars more.

Yet another alert to emphasize the seriousness of the...

This is more of an addendum to the previous alert to...

This isn't necessarily a negative reprice alert, but...

On the one hand, MBS are at their best levels of the...

• RTRS - US Consumer Sentiment Final March 76.2 (Consensus 74.7) Vs Preliminary March 74.3
• RTRS - Current Conditions Index Final March 86.0 (Consensus 84.5) Vs Preliminary March 84.2
• RTRS - Consumer Expectations Index Final March 69.8 (Consensus 68.0) Vs Preliminary March 68.0
• RTRS - 12-Month Economic Outlook Index Final March 79 Vs Preliminary March 74
• RTRS - 1-Year Inflation Outlook Final March 3.9 Pct Vs Preliminary March 4.0 Pct
• RTRS - 5-Year Inflation Outlook Final March 3.0 Pct Vs Preliminary March 3.0 Pct
• RTRS - Consumer Sentiment Index And Current Conditions Index At Highest Since February 2011

*PMI at 62.2 vs 63.0 consensus, 64.0 in Feb
*New Orders 63.3 vs 69.2 last time
*Prices Paid 70.1 vs 65.6 in Feb
*Employment Index 56.3 vs 64.2 last time

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the March Chicago Business Barometer paused after February's ten month high. While slowing, the Chicago Business Barometer marked its fifth month above 60, a 2-1/2 year period of expansion and trend data improved. Increases were seen in five of eight Business Activity Indexes, highlighted by significant advances in Prices Paid and Inventories, and a notable lengthening in lead times for Production Material.

So far, this morning is not living up to any expectations...

*spending up 0.8 vs 0.6 consensus
*income up 0.2 vs 0.4 consensus
*core PCE price index +0.1, as expected
*Core PCE year-over-year up 2.3 vs 2.4 consensus

Personal income increased $28.2 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $18.9 billion, or 0.2 percent, in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $86.0 billion, or 0.8 percent. In January, personal income increased $26.5 billion, or 0.2 percent, DPI increased $5.0 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and PCE increased $40.9 billion, or 0.4 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real disposable income decreased 0.1 percent in February, compared with a decrease of 0.2 percent in January. Real PCE increased 0.5 percent, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent.

• RTRS - US Consumer Sentiment Final March 76.2 (Consensus 74.7) Vs Preliminary March 74.3
• RTRS - Current Conditions Index Final March 86.0 (Consensus 84.5) Vs Preliminary March 84.2
• RTRS - Consumer Expectations Index Final March 69.8 (Consensus 68.0) Vs Preliminary March 68.0
• RTRS - 12-Month Economic Outlook Index Final March 79 Vs Preliminary March 74
• RTRS - 1-Year Inflation Outlook Final March 3.9 Pct Vs Preliminary March 4.0 Pct
• RTRS - 5-Year Inflation Outlook Final March 3.0 Pct Vs Preliminary March 3.0 Pct
• RTRS - Consumer Sentiment Index And Current Conditions Index At Highest Since February 2011

*PMI at 62.2 vs 63.0 consensus, 64.0 in Feb
*New Orders 63.3 vs 69.2 last time
*Prices Paid 70.1 vs 65.6 in Feb
*Employment Index 56.3 vs 64.2 last time

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the March Chicago Business Barometer paused after February's ten month high. While slowing, the Chicago Business Barometer marked its fifth month above 60, a 2-1/2 year period of expansion and trend data improved. Increases were seen in five of eight Business Activity Indexes, highlighted by significant advances in Prices Paid and Inventories, and a notable lengthening in lead times for Production Material.

*spending up 0.8 vs 0.6 consensus
*income up 0.2 vs 0.4 consensus
*core PCE price index +0.1, as expected
*Core PCE year-over-year up 2.3 vs 2.4 consensus

Personal income increased $28.2 billion, or 0.2 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $18.9 billion, or 0.2 percent, in February, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $86.0 billion, or 0.8 percent. In January, personal income increased $26.5 billion, or 0.2 percent, DPI increased $5.0 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and PCE increased $40.9 billion, or 0.4 percent, based on revised estimates.

Real disposable income decreased 0.1 percent in February, compared with a decrease of 0.2 percent in January. Real PCE increased 0.5 percent, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent.

"Across all operations in the schedule listed below, the Desk plans to purchase approximately $44 billion and sell approximately $43 billion in Treasury securities over the month of April."

There were some slight changes in the size of the buybacks... 2036-2042 range down from $1.75-2.25 bln to $1.50-2.00 bln. 2020-2022 Buybacks down from $4.50-5.25 bln to $4.25-5.00 bln.

Slightly negative for bond markets here as it decreases the level of guaranteed commitment to the long end, although mitigated by the fact that the overall scheduled buying amount remained unchanged. (In other words, the change is that the Fed is only promising $1.50 bln and $4.25 bln in those two operations whereas before they were in for a quarter of a billion dollars more.