"In another effort to advance the Obama Administration’s Open Government Initiative, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development today launched a public database to help the research community better understand the characteristics of households receiving assistance under the Department’s main rental programs..."

- Economic Activity Increased At A Modest To Moderate Pace
- Manufacturing Continued At A Steady Pace
- Nonfinancial Services Activity Remained Stable Or Increased
- Banking Conditions Generally Improved
- Consumer Spending Generally Positive, Outlook Modestly Optimistic
- Housing Market Conditions Improved Somewhat
- Hiring Increased Slightly Across Several Districts
- Wage Pressures Generally Contained
- Prices Stable; Some Pass-Through Of Higher Input Costs

"Demand for residential mortgage loans increased in New York, Richmond, and Kansas City; mortgage demand was flat to moderately stronger in St. Louis and softened in Kansas City. Cleveland noted increases in requests for commercial real estate lending, while contacts in Chicago and San Francisco noted improvement in the availability of credit for this sector. Meanwhile Philadelphia and Kansas City reported flat or steady commercial real estate lending. Demand for commercial real estate loans was flat to moderately stronger in St. Louis.

Overall lending standards remained restrictive in San Francisco and Richmond and were largely unchanged in St. Louis and Kansas City. Lending standards tightened further for commercial borrowers in New York. Credit conditions in Chicago improved slightly, while quality improved in Philadelphia and Kansas City. Delinquencies were steady or declined in Cleveland. Mortgage delinquencies were steady in the New York District but delinquencies decreased in other loan categories..."

For all the apparent drama on the short term charts...

After a stronger-than-expected Chicago PMI bond markets...

"In the housing sector, affordability has increased dramatically as a result of the decline in house prices and historically low interest rates on conventional mortgages. Unfortunately, many potential buyers lack the down payment and credit history required to qualify for loans; others are reluctant to buy a house now because of concerns about their income, employment prospects, and the future path of home prices. On the supply side of the market, about 30 percent of recent home sales have consisted of foreclosed or distressed properties, and home vacancy rates remain high, putting downward pressure on house prices. More-positive signs include a pickup in construction in the multifamily sector and recent increases in homebuilder sentiment..."

• RTRS - Chicago Purchasing Management Index 64.0 In February (Consensus 61.5) Vs 60.2 In January
• RTRS - Chicago Purchasing Mgmt New Orders Index 69.2 In February Vs 63.6 In January
• RTRS - Chicago Purchasing Management Prices Paid Index 65.6 In February Vs Vs 62.4 In January
• RTRS - Chicago PMI Employment Index 64.2 In February Vs 54.7 In January
• RTRS - Chicago Purchasing Management Production Index 67.8 In February Vs 63.8 In January
• RTRS - Chicago Purchasing Management Index At Highest Since April 2011
• RTRS - Chicago PMI New Orders Index At Highest Since March 2011
• RTRS - Chicago PMI Employment Index At Highest Since May 1984

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the February CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER rose to its highest level in ten months. The barometer also marked a 29th month of expansion and its fourth consecutive month above 60. Increases were seen in six of eight Business Activity Indexes, highlighted by a very large advance in Employment.

Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTC) today reported a net loss of $2.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2011, compared with a net loss of $5.1 billion in the third quarter of the year. The company’s net loss in the fourth quarter reflected $5.5 billion in credit-related expenses, the substantial majority of which were related to its legacy (pre-2009) book of business and due largely to a decline in home prices. These charges were partially offset by a growing percentage of net revenues from the company’s highquality new book of business.

For the full year of 2011, Fannie Mae reported a net loss of $16.9 billion, compared with a loss of $14.0 billion for 2010. The increase in the net loss for the year was due primarily to a $6.1 billion increase in net fair value losses in 2011. This resulted from losses in the company’s risk management derivatives in 2011 caused by a significant decline in interest rates during the year. These fair value losses on the company’s derivatives were offset by fair value gains during 2011 related to its mortgage investments; however, only a portion of these investments is recorded at fair value in its financial statements...

Roughly 3 hours before this morning's GDP release,...

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 1.8 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent.

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from private inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an upturn in private inventory investment and accelerations in PCE and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, a downturn in federal government spending, an acceleration in imports, and a larger decrease in state and local government spending.

"In another effort to advance the Obama Administration’s Open Government Initiative, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development today launched a public database to help the research community better understand the characteristics of households receiving assistance under the Department’s main rental programs..."

- Economic Activity Increased At A Modest To Moderate Pace
- Manufacturing Continued At A Steady Pace
- Nonfinancial Services Activity Remained Stable Or Increased
- Banking Conditions Generally Improved
- Consumer Spending Generally Positive, Outlook Modestly Optimistic
- Housing Market Conditions Improved Somewhat
- Hiring Increased Slightly Across Several Districts
- Wage Pressures Generally Contained
- Prices Stable; Some Pass-Through Of Higher Input Costs

"Demand for residential mortgage loans increased in New York, Richmond, and Kansas City; mortgage demand was flat to moderately stronger in St. Louis and softened in Kansas City. Cleveland noted increases in requests for commercial real estate lending, while contacts in Chicago and San Francisco noted improvement in the availability of credit for this sector. Meanwhile Philadelphia and Kansas City reported flat or steady commercial real estate lending. Demand for commercial real estate loans was flat to moderately stronger in St. Louis.

Overall lending standards remained restrictive in San Francisco and Richmond and were largely unchanged in St. Louis and Kansas City. Lending standards tightened further for commercial borrowers in New York. Credit conditions in Chicago improved slightly, while quality improved in Philadelphia and Kansas City. Delinquencies were steady or declined in Cleveland. Mortgage delinquencies were steady in the New York District but delinquencies decreased in other loan categories..."

"In the housing sector, affordability has increased dramatically as a result of the decline in house prices and historically low interest rates on conventional mortgages. Unfortunately, many potential buyers lack the down payment and credit history required to qualify for loans; others are reluctant to buy a house now because of concerns about their income, employment prospects, and the future path of home prices. On the supply side of the market, about 30 percent of recent home sales have consisted of foreclosed or distressed properties, and home vacancy rates remain high, putting downward pressure on house prices. More-positive signs include a pickup in construction in the multifamily sector and recent increases in homebuilder sentiment..."

Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTC) today reported a net loss of $2.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2011, compared with a net loss of $5.1 billion in the third quarter of the year. The company’s net loss in the fourth quarter reflected $5.5 billion in credit-related expenses, the substantial majority of which were related to its legacy (pre-2009) book of business and due largely to a decline in home prices. These charges were partially offset by a growing percentage of net revenues from the company’s highquality new book of business.

For the full year of 2011, Fannie Mae reported a net loss of $16.9 billion, compared with a loss of $14.0 billion for 2010. The increase in the net loss for the year was due primarily to a $6.1 billion increase in net fair value losses in 2011. This resulted from losses in the company’s risk management derivatives in 2011 caused by a significant decline in interest rates during the year. These fair value losses on the company’s derivatives were offset by fair value gains during 2011 related to its mortgage investments; however, only a portion of these investments is recorded at fair value in its financial statements...

- Economic Activity Increased At A Modest To Moderate Pace
- Manufacturing Continued At A Steady Pace
- Nonfinancial Services Activity Remained Stable Or Increased
- Banking Conditions Generally Improved
- Consumer Spending Generally Positive, Outlook Modestly Optimistic
- Housing Market Conditions Improved Somewhat
- Hiring Increased Slightly Across Several Districts
- Wage Pressures Generally Contained
- Prices Stable; Some Pass-Through Of Higher Input Costs

"Demand for residential mortgage loans increased in New York, Richmond, and Kansas City; mortgage demand was flat to moderately stronger in St. Louis and softened in Kansas City. Cleveland noted increases in requests for commercial real estate lending, while contacts in Chicago and San Francisco noted improvement in the availability of credit for this sector. Meanwhile Philadelphia and Kansas City reported flat or steady commercial real estate lending. Demand for commercial real estate loans was flat to moderately stronger in St. Louis.

Overall lending standards remained restrictive in San Francisco and Richmond and were largely unchanged in St. Louis and Kansas City. Lending standards tightened further for commercial borrowers in New York. Credit conditions in Chicago improved slightly, while quality improved in Philadelphia and Kansas City. Delinquencies were steady or declined in Cleveland. Mortgage delinquencies were steady in the New York District but delinquencies decreased in other loan categories..."

For all the apparent drama on the short term charts...

After a stronger-than-expected Chicago PMI bond markets...

"In the housing sector, affordability has increased dramatically as a result of the decline in house prices and historically low interest rates on conventional mortgages. Unfortunately, many potential buyers lack the down payment and credit history required to qualify for loans; others are reluctant to buy a house now because of concerns about their income, employment prospects, and the future path of home prices. On the supply side of the market, about 30 percent of recent home sales have consisted of foreclosed or distressed properties, and home vacancy rates remain high, putting downward pressure on house prices. More-positive signs include a pickup in construction in the multifamily sector and recent increases in homebuilder sentiment..."

• RTRS - Chicago Purchasing Management Index 64.0 In February (Consensus 61.5) Vs 60.2 In January
• RTRS - Chicago Purchasing Mgmt New Orders Index 69.2 In February Vs 63.6 In January
• RTRS - Chicago Purchasing Management Prices Paid Index 65.6 In February Vs Vs 62.4 In January
• RTRS - Chicago PMI Employment Index 64.2 In February Vs 54.7 In January
• RTRS - Chicago Purchasing Management Production Index 67.8 In February Vs 63.8 In January
• RTRS - Chicago Purchasing Management Index At Highest Since April 2011
• RTRS - Chicago PMI New Orders Index At Highest Since March 2011
• RTRS - Chicago PMI Employment Index At Highest Since May 1984

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the February CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER rose to its highest level in ten months. The barometer also marked a 29th month of expansion and its fourth consecutive month above 60. Increases were seen in six of eight Business Activity Indexes, highlighted by a very large advance in Employment.

Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTC) today reported a net loss of $2.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2011, compared with a net loss of $5.1 billion in the third quarter of the year. The company’s net loss in the fourth quarter reflected $5.5 billion in credit-related expenses, the substantial majority of which were related to its legacy (pre-2009) book of business and due largely to a decline in home prices. These charges were partially offset by a growing percentage of net revenues from the company’s highquality new book of business.

For the full year of 2011, Fannie Mae reported a net loss of $16.9 billion, compared with a loss of $14.0 billion for 2010. The increase in the net loss for the year was due primarily to a $6.1 billion increase in net fair value losses in 2011. This resulted from losses in the company’s risk management derivatives in 2011 caused by a significant decline in interest rates during the year. These fair value losses on the company’s derivatives were offset by fair value gains during 2011 related to its mortgage investments; however, only a portion of these investments is recorded at fair value in its financial statements...

Roughly 3 hours before this morning's GDP release,...

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 1.8 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent.

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from private inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an upturn in private inventory investment and accelerations in PCE and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, a downturn in federal government spending, an acceleration in imports, and a larger decrease in state and local government spending.

• RTRS - Chicago Purchasing Management Index 64.0 In February (Consensus 61.5) Vs 60.2 In January
• RTRS - Chicago Purchasing Mgmt New Orders Index 69.2 In February Vs 63.6 In January
• RTRS - Chicago Purchasing Management Prices Paid Index 65.6 In February Vs Vs 62.4 In January
• RTRS - Chicago PMI Employment Index 64.2 In February Vs 54.7 In January
• RTRS - Chicago Purchasing Management Production Index 67.8 In February Vs 63.8 In January
• RTRS - Chicago Purchasing Management Index At Highest Since April 2011
• RTRS - Chicago PMI New Orders Index At Highest Since March 2011
• RTRS - Chicago PMI Employment Index At Highest Since May 1984

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the February CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER rose to its highest level in ten months. The barometer also marked a 29th month of expansion and its fourth consecutive month above 60. Increases were seen in six of eight Business Activity Indexes, highlighted by a very large advance in Employment.

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 1.8 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.8 percent.

The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from private inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an upturn in private inventory investment and accelerations in PCE and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, a downturn in federal government spending, an acceleration in imports, and a larger decrease in state and local government spending.