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You are viewing Micro News from Wednesday, Feb 15, 2012 - View all recent Micro News
  • 2/15/12
    Although no significant progress was made on the call...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    The Eurogroup conference call ended moments ago with...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    FOMC Minutes: Equivocal, As-Expected, QE3 Doors Remain Open
    A few of the key paragraphs:

    "A few members observed that, in their judgment, current and prospective economic conditions--including elevated unemployment and inflation at or below the Committee's objective--could warrant the initiation of additional securities purchases before long. Other members indicated that such policy action could become necessary if the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below its mandate-consistent rate of 2 percent over the medium run. In contrast, one member judged that maintaining the current degree of policy accommodation beyond the near term would likely be inappropriate; that member anticipated that a preemptive tightening of monetary policy would be necessary before the end of 2014 to keep inflation close to 2 percent. "

    "Participants also provided qualitative information on their views regarding the appropriate path of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. A few participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy incorporated additional purchases of longer-term securities in 2012, and a number of participants indicated that they remained open to a consideration of additional asset purchases if the economic outlook deteriorated. All but one of the participants continued to expect that the Committee would carry out the normalization of the balance sheet according to the principles approved at the June 2011 FOMC meeting. That is, prior to the first increase in the federal funds rate, the Committee would likely cease reinvesting some or all payments on the securities holdings in the System Open Market Account (SOMA), and it would likely begin sales of agency securities from the SOMA sometime after the first rate increase, aiming to eliminate the SOMA’s holdings of agency securities over a period of three to five years. Indeed, most participants saw sales of agency securities starting no earlier than 2015."
    Category: MBS, FED
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  • 2/15/12
    Not much to say here... Bond markets are bullish on...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    Fed: Deadline to Request Review Under the Independent Foreclosure Review Extended to July 31
    People seeking a review of their mortgage foreclosures under the Federal banking agencies' Independent Foreclosure Review now have until July 31, 2012, to submit their requests.

    The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Federal Reserve) today announced that the deadline for submitting requests for review under the Independent Foreclosure Review has been extended. The new deadline, July 31, 2012, provides an additional three months for borrowers to request a review if they believe they suffered financial injury as a result of errors in foreclosure actions on their homes in 2009 or 2010 by one of the servicers covered by enforcement actions issued in April 2011.
    Category: INDUSTRY
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    NAHB: Builder Confidence Increases for Fifth Consecutive Month in February
    Home builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes increased for the fifth consecutive month in February, rising from 25 to 29 on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. It is the highest level the index has reached in more than four years.

    “Builder confidence has doubled since September as measured by the HMI,” said NAHB Chairman Barry Rutenberg, a home builder from Gainesville, Fla. “Given the recent improvements in new home starts and the increasing number of markets included in the NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index, this consistency suggests that the housing market is moving toward more sustainable growth.”
    Category: MBS, INDUSTRY
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    ECON: NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment Highest in Nearly Five Years
    • RTRS- U.S. FEBRUARY NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX 29 (CONSENSUS 26) VERSUS 25 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- NAHB INDEX OF CURRENT SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES 30 VERSUS 25 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- NAHB INDEX OF PROSPECTIVE BUYERS 22 VERSUS 21 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- NAHB INDEX OF HOME SALES OVER NEXT SIX MONTHS 34 VERSUS 29 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- NAHB HOUSING INDEX AND SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES INDEX BOTH AT HIGHEST SINCE MAY 2007
    Category: MBS, ECON
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    FHA: New Mortgagee Letter 2012-2
    To: All Approved Lenders

    Subject: Closing a Loan in the Name of an FHA-Approved Mortgagee Acting as a Sponsored Third-Party Originator (TPO)

    Purpose of Mortgagee Letter: This Mortgagee Letter clarifies the requirements for the origination, closing, and submission for FHA insurance endorsement of loans via the sponsored third-party origination process...
    Category: MBS, INDUSTRY
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    ECON: Industrial Production Unchanged in January
    Industrial production was unchanged in January, as a gain of 0.7 percent in manufacturing was offset by declines in mining and utilities. Within manufacturing, the index for motor vehicles and parts jumped 6.8 percent and the index for other manufacturing industries increased 0.3 percent. The output of utilities fell 2.5 percent, as demand for heating was held down by temperatures that moved further above seasonal norms; the output of mines declined 1.8 percent. Total industrial production is now reported to have advanced 1.0 percent in December; the initial estimate had been an increase of 0.4 percent. This large upward revision reflected higher output for many manufacturing and mining industries. At 95.9 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in January was 3.4 percent above its level of a year earlier. The capacity utilization rate for total industry decreased to 78.5 percent, a rate 1.8 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2011) average.
    • RTRS- JAN INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT 0.0 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.7 PCT) VS DEC +1.0 PCT (PREV +0.4 PCT)
    • RTRS- DEC CAPACITY USE RATE 78.5 PCT (CONS 78.6 PCT) VS DEC 78.6 PCT (PREV 78.1 PCT)
    • RTRS- JAN MANUFACTURING OUTPUT +0.7 PCT VS DEC +1.5 PCT, CAP USE 77.0 PCT VS DEC 76.5 PCT
    • RTRS- JAN MINING OUTPUT -1.8 PCT (DEC +0.9 PCT), UTILITIES OUTPUT -2.5 PCT (DEC-2.4 PCT)
    • RTRS- JAN INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT EX CARS/PARTS -0.3 PCT VS DEC +0.8 PCT
    • RTRS- JAN MOTOR VEHICLE ASSEMBLY RATE ROSE TO 10.17 MLN UNITS/YR FROM DEC 9.40 MLN
    As is the case for all the economic data this morning, this isn't a big market mover, even with the fairly large deviation from consensus.
    Category: MBS, ECON
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    ECON: Foreign Countries Dump Long Term Treasuries in December
    WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for December 2011. The next release, which will report on data for January 2012, is scheduled for March 15, 2012. Foreign residents decreased their holdings of long-term U.S. securities in December — net sales were $21.0 billion. Net sales by private foreign investors were $11.5 billion, and net sales by foreign official institutions were $9.5 billion.
    • RTRS- U.S. DECEMBER NET OVERALL CAPITAL INFLOW $87.1 BLN VS REVISED $42.9 BLN INFLOW IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- U.S. DECEMBER NET LONG-TERM INFLOW (EX-SWAPS/OTHER) $17.9 BLN VS REV $61.3 BLN INFLOW IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- U.S. DECEMBER NET LONG-TERM INFLOW (INCL. SWAPS/OTHER) $1.6 BLN VS REV $45.8 BLN INFLOW IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- DECEMBER NET FOREIGN SALES OF US TREASURY BONDS, NOTES $16.6 BLN VS $54.0 BLN PURCHASES IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- U.S. DECEMBER NET OFFICIAL CAPITAL OUTFLOW $25.9 BILLION VS $20.4 BLN INFLOW IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- U.S. DECEMBER NET PRIVATE CAPITAL INFLOW $113 BLN VS REV $22.5 BLN INFLOW IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- CHINA U.S. TREASURY SECURITIES HOLDINGS $1.1007 TRLN IN DECEMBER VS $1.1326 TRLN IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- JAPAN U.S. TREASURY HOLDINGS $1.0424 TRLN IN DECEMBER VS $1.0389 TRLN IN NOVEMBER
    While it's a decent-enough conversation starter, this data is not a market mover and is very backward-looking. China remains over $1.1 Trillion.
    Category: MBS, ECON
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    CAR: January California home sales, median price dip
    California home sales declined from both the prior month and year in January, according to data from the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.). The median price also was lower, primarily due to a sales increase in the distressed market.

    “Record low interest rates and favorable home prices continue to offer opportunities for potential home buyers,” said C.A.R. President LeFrancis Arnold. “If the overall economy continues its recent upward trend, we should see an improvement in the housing market throughout the year.”

    Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 517,740 in January, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. January’s sales were down 0.6 percent from December’s 520,940 pace and down 5.7 percent from the revised 548,760 sales pace recorded in January 2011. The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2012 if sales maintained the January pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
    Category: INDUSTRY
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    MBA: Purchase Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
    Mortgage applications decreased 1.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 10, 2012.

    The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index was essentially unchanged compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 0.8 percent from the previous week to its highest level since August 8, 2011. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 8.4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 7.6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
    Category: INDUSTRY
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    (Reuters) - Euro zone finance officials are examining...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    ECON: Empire State Manufacturing Much Stronger, But Reaction Limited
    The February Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity in New York State expanded for a third consecutive month. The general business conditions index rose six points to 19.5, its highest level in more than a year. The new orders index, at 9.7, was positive but down slightly, and the shipments index was little changed at 22.8. The prices paid index held steady at 25.9, while the prices received index fell eight points to 15.3, suggesting that selling prices rose at a slower pace. Employment indexes were positive and close to last month’s levels, indicating that employment levels and the average workweek continued to rise at a modest pace. Indexes for the six-month outlook, while somewhat lower than last month, remained at fairly high levels, signaling considerable optimism about the future.
    • RTRS- INDEX 19.53 IN FEBRUARY (CONSENSUS 15) VS 13.48 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- EMPLOYMENT INDEX AT 11.76 IN FEBRUARY VS 12.09 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- NEW ORDERS INDEX 9.73 IN FEBRUARY VS 13.70 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- PRICES PAID INDEX 25.88 IN FEBRUARY VS 26.37 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- SIX-MONTH BUSINESS CONDITIONS INDEX 50.38 IN FEBRUARY VS 54.87 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- BUSINESS CONDITIONS INDEX AT HIGHEST SINCE JUNE 2010
    Market reaction has been limited, both in terms of volume and movement owing to headlines concerning the possible delay of the Greek bailout that hit shortly before the NY Fed report.
    Category: MBS, ECON
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    Fed: Deadline to Request Review Under the Independent Foreclosure Review Extended to July 31
    People seeking a review of their mortgage foreclosures under the Federal banking agencies' Independent Foreclosure Review now have until July 31, 2012, to submit their requests.

    The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (Federal Reserve) today announced that the deadline for submitting requests for review under the Independent Foreclosure Review has been extended. The new deadline, July 31, 2012, provides an additional three months for borrowers to request a review if they believe they suffered financial injury as a result of errors in foreclosure actions on their homes in 2009 or 2010 by one of the servicers covered by enforcement actions issued in April 2011.
    Category: INDUSTRY
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    NAHB: Builder Confidence Increases for Fifth Consecutive Month in February
    Home builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes increased for the fifth consecutive month in February, rising from 25 to 29 on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. It is the highest level the index has reached in more than four years.

    “Builder confidence has doubled since September as measured by the HMI,” said NAHB Chairman Barry Rutenberg, a home builder from Gainesville, Fla. “Given the recent improvements in new home starts and the increasing number of markets included in the NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index, this consistency suggests that the housing market is moving toward more sustainable growth.”
    Category: MBS, INDUSTRY
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    FHA: New Mortgagee Letter 2012-2
    To: All Approved Lenders

    Subject: Closing a Loan in the Name of an FHA-Approved Mortgagee Acting as a Sponsored Third-Party Originator (TPO)

    Purpose of Mortgagee Letter: This Mortgagee Letter clarifies the requirements for the origination, closing, and submission for FHA insurance endorsement of loans via the sponsored third-party origination process...
    Category: MBS, INDUSTRY
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    CAR: January California home sales, median price dip
    California home sales declined from both the prior month and year in January, according to data from the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.). The median price also was lower, primarily due to a sales increase in the distressed market.

    “Record low interest rates and favorable home prices continue to offer opportunities for potential home buyers,” said C.A.R. President LeFrancis Arnold. “If the overall economy continues its recent upward trend, we should see an improvement in the housing market throughout the year.”

    Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 517,740 in January, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. January’s sales were down 0.6 percent from December’s 520,940 pace and down 5.7 percent from the revised 548,760 sales pace recorded in January 2011. The statewide sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2012 if sales maintained the January pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
    Category: INDUSTRY
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    MBA: Purchase Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
    Mortgage applications decreased 1.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 10, 2012.

    The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index was essentially unchanged compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 0.8 percent from the previous week to its highest level since August 8, 2011. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 8.4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.3 percent compared with the previous week and was 7.6 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
    Category: INDUSTRY
    Share:   
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  • 2/15/12
    Although no significant progress was made on the call...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    The Eurogroup conference call ended moments ago with...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    A few of the key paragraphs:

    "A few members observed that, in their judgment, current and prospective economic conditions--including elevated unemployment and inflation at or below the Committee's objective--could warrant the initiation of additional securities purchases before long. Other members indicated that such policy action could become necessary if the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below its mandate-consistent rate of 2 percent over the medium run. In contrast, one member judged that maintaining the current degree of policy accommodation beyond the near term would likely be inappropriate; that member anticipated that a preemptive tightening of monetary policy would be necessary before the end of 2014 to keep inflation close to 2 percent. "

    "Participants also provided qualitative information on their views regarding the appropriate path of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. A few participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy incorporated additional purchases of longer-term securities in 2012, and a number of participants indicated that they remained open to a consideration of additional asset purchases if the economic outlook deteriorated. All but one of the participants continued to expect that the Committee would carry out the normalization of the balance sheet according to the principles approved at the June 2011 FOMC meeting. That is, prior to the first increase in the federal funds rate, the Committee would likely cease reinvesting some or all payments on the securities holdings in the System Open Market Account (SOMA), and it would likely begin sales of agency securities from the SOMA sometime after the first rate increase, aiming to eliminate the SOMA’s holdings of agency securities over a period of three to five years. Indeed, most participants saw sales of agency securities starting no earlier than 2015."
    Category: MBS, FED
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    Not much to say here... Bond markets are bullish on...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS, alert
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    Home builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes increased for the fifth consecutive month in February, rising from 25 to 29 on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. It is the highest level the index has reached in more than four years.

    “Builder confidence has doubled since September as measured by the HMI,” said NAHB Chairman Barry Rutenberg, a home builder from Gainesville, Fla. “Given the recent improvements in new home starts and the increasing number of markets included in the NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index, this consistency suggests that the housing market is moving toward more sustainable growth.”
    Category: MBS, INDUSTRY
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    • RTRS- U.S. FEBRUARY NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX 29 (CONSENSUS 26) VERSUS 25 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- NAHB INDEX OF CURRENT SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES 30 VERSUS 25 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- NAHB INDEX OF PROSPECTIVE BUYERS 22 VERSUS 21 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- NAHB INDEX OF HOME SALES OVER NEXT SIX MONTHS 34 VERSUS 29 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- NAHB HOUSING INDEX AND SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES INDEX BOTH AT HIGHEST SINCE MAY 2007
    Category: MBS, ECON
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    To: All Approved Lenders

    Subject: Closing a Loan in the Name of an FHA-Approved Mortgagee Acting as a Sponsored Third-Party Originator (TPO)

    Purpose of Mortgagee Letter: This Mortgagee Letter clarifies the requirements for the origination, closing, and submission for FHA insurance endorsement of loans via the sponsored third-party origination process...
    Category: MBS, INDUSTRY
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    Industrial production was unchanged in January, as a gain of 0.7 percent in manufacturing was offset by declines in mining and utilities. Within manufacturing, the index for motor vehicles and parts jumped 6.8 percent and the index for other manufacturing industries increased 0.3 percent. The output of utilities fell 2.5 percent, as demand for heating was held down by temperatures that moved further above seasonal norms; the output of mines declined 1.8 percent. Total industrial production is now reported to have advanced 1.0 percent in December; the initial estimate had been an increase of 0.4 percent. This large upward revision reflected higher output for many manufacturing and mining industries. At 95.9 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in January was 3.4 percent above its level of a year earlier. The capacity utilization rate for total industry decreased to 78.5 percent, a rate 1.8 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2011) average.
    • RTRS- JAN INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT 0.0 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.7 PCT) VS DEC +1.0 PCT (PREV +0.4 PCT)
    • RTRS- DEC CAPACITY USE RATE 78.5 PCT (CONS 78.6 PCT) VS DEC 78.6 PCT (PREV 78.1 PCT)
    • RTRS- JAN MANUFACTURING OUTPUT +0.7 PCT VS DEC +1.5 PCT, CAP USE 77.0 PCT VS DEC 76.5 PCT
    • RTRS- JAN MINING OUTPUT -1.8 PCT (DEC +0.9 PCT), UTILITIES OUTPUT -2.5 PCT (DEC-2.4 PCT)
    • RTRS- JAN INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT EX CARS/PARTS -0.3 PCT VS DEC +0.8 PCT
    • RTRS- JAN MOTOR VEHICLE ASSEMBLY RATE ROSE TO 10.17 MLN UNITS/YR FROM DEC 9.40 MLN
    As is the case for all the economic data this morning, this isn't a big market mover, even with the fairly large deviation from consensus.
    Category: MBS, ECON
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for December 2011. The next release, which will report on data for January 2012, is scheduled for March 15, 2012. Foreign residents decreased their holdings of long-term U.S. securities in December — net sales were $21.0 billion. Net sales by private foreign investors were $11.5 billion, and net sales by foreign official institutions were $9.5 billion.
    • RTRS- U.S. DECEMBER NET OVERALL CAPITAL INFLOW $87.1 BLN VS REVISED $42.9 BLN INFLOW IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- U.S. DECEMBER NET LONG-TERM INFLOW (EX-SWAPS/OTHER) $17.9 BLN VS REV $61.3 BLN INFLOW IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- U.S. DECEMBER NET LONG-TERM INFLOW (INCL. SWAPS/OTHER) $1.6 BLN VS REV $45.8 BLN INFLOW IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- DECEMBER NET FOREIGN SALES OF US TREASURY BONDS, NOTES $16.6 BLN VS $54.0 BLN PURCHASES IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- U.S. DECEMBER NET OFFICIAL CAPITAL OUTFLOW $25.9 BILLION VS $20.4 BLN INFLOW IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- U.S. DECEMBER NET PRIVATE CAPITAL INFLOW $113 BLN VS REV $22.5 BLN INFLOW IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- CHINA U.S. TREASURY SECURITIES HOLDINGS $1.1007 TRLN IN DECEMBER VS $1.1326 TRLN IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- JAPAN U.S. TREASURY HOLDINGS $1.0424 TRLN IN DECEMBER VS $1.0389 TRLN IN NOVEMBER
    While it's a decent-enough conversation starter, this data is not a market mover and is very backward-looking. China remains over $1.1 Trillion.
    Category: MBS, ECON
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    (Reuters) - Euro zone finance officials are examining...
    MBS Updates are a service provided to MBS Live! subscribers only.
    Learn More | Start a Free Trial | View MBS Prices
    Category: MBS
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    The February Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity in New York State expanded for a third consecutive month. The general business conditions index rose six points to 19.5, its highest level in more than a year. The new orders index, at 9.7, was positive but down slightly, and the shipments index was little changed at 22.8. The prices paid index held steady at 25.9, while the prices received index fell eight points to 15.3, suggesting that selling prices rose at a slower pace. Employment indexes were positive and close to last month’s levels, indicating that employment levels and the average workweek continued to rise at a modest pace. Indexes for the six-month outlook, while somewhat lower than last month, remained at fairly high levels, signaling considerable optimism about the future.
    • RTRS- INDEX 19.53 IN FEBRUARY (CONSENSUS 15) VS 13.48 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- EMPLOYMENT INDEX AT 11.76 IN FEBRUARY VS 12.09 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- NEW ORDERS INDEX 9.73 IN FEBRUARY VS 13.70 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- PRICES PAID INDEX 25.88 IN FEBRUARY VS 26.37 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- SIX-MONTH BUSINESS CONDITIONS INDEX 50.38 IN FEBRUARY VS 54.87 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- BUSINESS CONDITIONS INDEX AT HIGHEST SINCE JUNE 2010
    Market reaction has been limited, both in terms of volume and movement owing to headlines concerning the possible delay of the Greek bailout that hit shortly before the NY Fed report.
    Category: MBS, ECON
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    ECON: NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment Highest in Nearly Five Years
    • RTRS- U.S. FEBRUARY NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX 29 (CONSENSUS 26) VERSUS 25 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- NAHB INDEX OF CURRENT SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES 30 VERSUS 25 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- NAHB INDEX OF PROSPECTIVE BUYERS 22 VERSUS 21 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- NAHB INDEX OF HOME SALES OVER NEXT SIX MONTHS 34 VERSUS 29 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- NAHB HOUSING INDEX AND SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES INDEX BOTH AT HIGHEST SINCE MAY 2007
    Category: MBS, ECON
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    ECON: Industrial Production Unchanged in January
    Industrial production was unchanged in January, as a gain of 0.7 percent in manufacturing was offset by declines in mining and utilities. Within manufacturing, the index for motor vehicles and parts jumped 6.8 percent and the index for other manufacturing industries increased 0.3 percent. The output of utilities fell 2.5 percent, as demand for heating was held down by temperatures that moved further above seasonal norms; the output of mines declined 1.8 percent. Total industrial production is now reported to have advanced 1.0 percent in December; the initial estimate had been an increase of 0.4 percent. This large upward revision reflected higher output for many manufacturing and mining industries. At 95.9 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production in January was 3.4 percent above its level of a year earlier. The capacity utilization rate for total industry decreased to 78.5 percent, a rate 1.8 percentage points below its long-run (1972--2011) average.
    • RTRS- JAN INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT 0.0 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.7 PCT) VS DEC +1.0 PCT (PREV +0.4 PCT)
    • RTRS- DEC CAPACITY USE RATE 78.5 PCT (CONS 78.6 PCT) VS DEC 78.6 PCT (PREV 78.1 PCT)
    • RTRS- JAN MANUFACTURING OUTPUT +0.7 PCT VS DEC +1.5 PCT, CAP USE 77.0 PCT VS DEC 76.5 PCT
    • RTRS- JAN MINING OUTPUT -1.8 PCT (DEC +0.9 PCT), UTILITIES OUTPUT -2.5 PCT (DEC-2.4 PCT)
    • RTRS- JAN INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT EX CARS/PARTS -0.3 PCT VS DEC +0.8 PCT
    • RTRS- JAN MOTOR VEHICLE ASSEMBLY RATE ROSE TO 10.17 MLN UNITS/YR FROM DEC 9.40 MLN
    As is the case for all the economic data this morning, this isn't a big market mover, even with the fairly large deviation from consensus.
    Category: MBS, ECON
    Share:   
  • 2/15/12
    ECON: Foreign Countries Dump Long Term Treasuries in December
    WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for December 2011. The next release, which will report on data for January 2012, is scheduled for March 15, 2012. Foreign residents decreased their holdings of long-term U.S. securities in December — net sales were $21.0 billion. Net sales by private foreign investors were $11.5 billion, and net sales by foreign official institutions were $9.5 billion.
    • RTRS- U.S. DECEMBER NET OVERALL CAPITAL INFLOW $87.1 BLN VS REVISED $42.9 BLN INFLOW IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- U.S. DECEMBER NET LONG-TERM INFLOW (EX-SWAPS/OTHER) $17.9 BLN VS REV $61.3 BLN INFLOW IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- U.S. DECEMBER NET LONG-TERM INFLOW (INCL. SWAPS/OTHER) $1.6 BLN VS REV $45.8 BLN INFLOW IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- DECEMBER NET FOREIGN SALES OF US TREASURY BONDS, NOTES $16.6 BLN VS $54.0 BLN PURCHASES IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- U.S. DECEMBER NET OFFICIAL CAPITAL OUTFLOW $25.9 BILLION VS $20.4 BLN INFLOW IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- U.S. DECEMBER NET PRIVATE CAPITAL INFLOW $113 BLN VS REV $22.5 BLN INFLOW IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- CHINA U.S. TREASURY SECURITIES HOLDINGS $1.1007 TRLN IN DECEMBER VS $1.1326 TRLN IN NOVEMBER
    • RTRS- JAPAN U.S. TREASURY HOLDINGS $1.0424 TRLN IN DECEMBER VS $1.0389 TRLN IN NOVEMBER
    While it's a decent-enough conversation starter, this data is not a market mover and is very backward-looking. China remains over $1.1 Trillion.
    Category: MBS, ECON
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  • 2/15/12
    ECON: Empire State Manufacturing Much Stronger, But Reaction Limited
    The February Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that manufacturing activity in New York State expanded for a third consecutive month. The general business conditions index rose six points to 19.5, its highest level in more than a year. The new orders index, at 9.7, was positive but down slightly, and the shipments index was little changed at 22.8. The prices paid index held steady at 25.9, while the prices received index fell eight points to 15.3, suggesting that selling prices rose at a slower pace. Employment indexes were positive and close to last month’s levels, indicating that employment levels and the average workweek continued to rise at a modest pace. Indexes for the six-month outlook, while somewhat lower than last month, remained at fairly high levels, signaling considerable optimism about the future.
    • RTRS- INDEX 19.53 IN FEBRUARY (CONSENSUS 15) VS 13.48 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- EMPLOYMENT INDEX AT 11.76 IN FEBRUARY VS 12.09 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- NEW ORDERS INDEX 9.73 IN FEBRUARY VS 13.70 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- PRICES PAID INDEX 25.88 IN FEBRUARY VS 26.37 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- SIX-MONTH BUSINESS CONDITIONS INDEX 50.38 IN FEBRUARY VS 54.87 IN JANUARY
    • RTRS- BUSINESS CONDITIONS INDEX AT HIGHEST SINCE JUNE 2010
    Market reaction has been limited, both in terms of volume and movement owing to headlines concerning the possible delay of the Greek bailout that hit shortly before the NY Fed report.
    Category: MBS, ECON
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  • 2/15/12
    FOMC Minutes: Equivocal, As-Expected, QE3 Doors Remain Open
    A few of the key paragraphs:

    "A few members observed that, in their judgment, current and prospective economic conditions--including elevated unemployment and inflation at or below the Committee's objective--could warrant the initiation of additional securities purchases before long. Other members indicated that such policy action could become necessary if the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below its mandate-consistent rate of 2 percent over the medium run. In contrast, one member judged that maintaining the current degree of policy accommodation beyond the near term would likely be inappropriate; that member anticipated that a preemptive tightening of monetary policy would be necessary before the end of 2014 to keep inflation close to 2 percent. "

    "Participants also provided qualitative information on their views regarding the appropriate path of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. A few participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy incorporated additional purchases of longer-term securities in 2012, and a number of participants indicated that they remained open to a consideration of additional asset purchases if the economic outlook deteriorated. All but one of the participants continued to expect that the Committee would carry out the normalization of the balance sheet according to the principles approved at the June 2011 FOMC meeting. That is, prior to the first increase in the federal funds rate, the Committee would likely cease reinvesting some or all payments on the securities holdings in the System Open Market Account (SOMA), and it would likely begin sales of agency securities from the SOMA sometime after the first rate increase, aiming to eliminate the SOMA’s holdings of agency securities over a period of three to five years. Indeed, most participants saw sales of agency securities starting no earlier than 2015."
    Category: MBS, FED
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