ECON: GDP Slightly Lower Than Expected, Consumer Spending Decelerates
- GDP +2.7 vs +2.8 consensus
- Final Sales +1.9 vs +2.5 consensus
- Consumer Spending +1.4, smallest rise since Q211
- Business Inventory change accounts for .77 of GDP
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.7 percent in the third quarter of 2012 (that
is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.3 percent.
The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for
the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.0
percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).
The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, federal government spending,
residential fixed investment, and exports that were partly offset by negative contributions from
nonresidential fixed investment and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a
subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased slightly.
The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected upturns in private inventory
investment and in federal government spending, a deceleration in imports, an acceleration in residential
fixed investment, and a smaller decrease in state and local government spending that were partly offset
by a downturn in nonresidential fixed investment and decelerations in exports and in PCE.