http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Mortgage News Daily https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-10162026 Fri, 16 Oct 2026 19:46:23 GMT 6ad28d441d0f9c937d6162a7 Matthew Graham Could Have Been Better. Could Have Been Worse If the bond market was a Mario Bro, it found a gold star at some point on Wednesday. As Thursday afternoon, the gold star ran out of juice and we're back to regular old Mario. In other words, astonishing resilience/bullishness has been replaced by a sideways-to-slightly-weaker grind. It could be as simple as the desire among traders to consolidate recent gains without getting too carried away. Ongoing selling in tech stocks ostensibly allowed for another bond rally, so the fact that we lost a bit of ground could end up looking like an important clue about resistance. A mid-day spike in oil prices may have added just a bit of upward pressure in yields, but it's more likely correlation>causation as oil has been higher all week. Losses were minimal as of 3pm, leaving most of the week's rally intact.  Econ Data / Events import prices 1.1% vs 0.8% f'cast, 0.5% prev Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/10162026-existing-home-sales-nar-inventory-prices-appr Fri, 16 Oct 2026 18:52:00 GMT 6ad273b8fb67acb196edb79c Matthew Graham If you're busy, we can make this quick. Existing home sales dropped sharply from over 6m units per year starting in 2022 and had bottomed out around 4m units per year by the end of 2023. They've done essentially nothing exciting since then and the latest update is no exception. The end.  If you prefer to read an article-sized article, here you go: Existing-home sales edged higher in September with The National Association of REALTORS® reporting a 1.5% increase to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million . August and September mark the two slowest months for home sales this year, as higher borrowing costs continued to limit the pool of qualified buyers. “Further increases in mortgage rates in recent weeks mean fewer buyers can qualify to purchase a home,” Yun said. Freddie Mac's average 30-year fixed rate climbed to 6.86% in September , up from 6.67% in August and 6.35% a year earlier. Inventory continued to offer buyers more options than they had a year ago, although the latest increase was relatively modest. Total housing inventory reached 1.60 million units , up 1.9% from August and 4.6% year over year . Buyers may also have more room to negotiate as homes take longer to sell. The median time on market increased to 33 days , up from 31 days in August. Yun said the combination of higher inventory and longer selling times could require sellers to offer price reductions or other incentives to attract buyers. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/10162026-mortgage-applications-mba Fri, 16 Oct 2026 18:45:00 GMT 6ad27229b90b52e3f5c78e92 Matthew Graham Mortgage applications continued to lose ground as mortgage rates held near their highest levels in nearly three years. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.7% decline in total mortgage application volume for the week ending October 9. That's an important date, because a substantial majority of a fairly sharp decline in interest rates occurred AFTER October 9. As such, next week's data is a great opportunity to see the impact of lower rates.  Purchase activity took another step back, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index falling 4% for the week and running 16% below year-ago levels . Refinances were nearly unchanged, slipping just 0.4%, but remained 56% lower than a year earlier. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged up to 7.50% , its highest level since November 2023 and more than a percentage point above its level a year ago. MBA's Joel Kan notes, “As a result, borrowers continue to rely more on ARM loans to help lower their monthly payments." ARMs accounted for 10.5% of all applications , the highest share since October 2025. The refinance share also ticked higher, reaching 37.7% of total applications from 37.0% the previous week, with a 5% drop in FHA refinance applications being the main driver of the small overall decline. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 7.50% (from 7.49%) | Points: 0.83 (from 0.84) 15yr Fixed: 6.87% (from 6.71%) | Points: 0.90 (from 1.05) Jumbo 30yr: 7.49% (from 7.39%) | Points: 0.70 (from 0.52) FHA: 7.19% (from 7.14%) | Points: 1.21 (from 1.36) 5/1 ARM: 6.54% (from 6.43%) | Points: 1.13 (from 1.69) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-10162026 Fri, 16 Oct 2026 18:18:00 GMT 6ad26fc9b90b52e3f5c78e91 Matthew Graham After dropping sharply over the past 5 days, mortgage rates finally reminded us that they're still capable of moving higher. Thankfully, today's bump was modest in the recent context, only adding 0.04% to a 30yr fixed that had fallen 0.27% since October 7th.  Even though today's losses were minimal, they're potentially informative. Much of this week's improvement can be traced to concerns surrounding tech companies, and possible warning signs about a reduction in AI-related spending/investment throughout the sector.  While it's too early to draw any conclusions about such things, we can certainly observe a strong correlation between tech stocks and interest rates as of October 8th. What's notable about today is that rates refused to follow tech stocks any lower, even though the NASDAQ had an even worse day than it did on Wednesday.  The counterpoint--if there is one--is that oil prices launched higher, which may have prevented bonds/rates from getting too excited. Still, oil has been moving higher during the same time frame that rates have been improving, so one could easily ask "why does oil suddenly matter now?" There's not really a great answer to that question, so we're left to conclude that bonds/rates are feeling a bit of resistance after this week's bull run.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-10162026 Fri, 16 Oct 2026 15:28:07 GMT 6ad21b550d7399e5c1764dd5 Rob Chrisman The MBA believes that 2027’s production will be 5 percent less than 2026’s and be below $2 trillion. “Rob, are you hearing that, with volumes down (units and volume), lenders are once again examining keeping entire loan originator workforces?” Indeed I am. At the most basic level, as we move through autumn and into winter with no sign of greatly improved rates and the spring “home buying season” five months away, lenders are asking, “Is the LO carrying him/herself?” Lenders are moving LOs to part-time status, cutting benefits when possible, or suggesting they “find success elsewhere.” Many are shifting. RETR reports that from January through September 9, 2026, independent mortgage bankers lost roughly 100 net loan officers, representing approximately $1.8 billion in production, while the non-delegated, broker and wholesale channels gained 327 net loan officers and nearly $7 billion in production. Technology-enabled platforms make it easier to move production into operating models with lower costs and more efficient fulfillment. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are presented by nCino, the platform for agentic AI in mortgage lending. nCino is helping mortgage lenders deliver a faster, simpler path to homeownership. Today’s has an interview with SF Realtor Arrian Binnings on how real estate agents and mortgage originators build effective partnerships and how AI may change their work.) Lender and Brokers Products, Services, and Software Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-10162026 Fri, 16 Oct 2026 14:06:37 GMT 6ad23d951d0f9c937d60c30b Matthew Graham The past two days saw a unique confluence of factors that led to a precipitous, unexpected, and fairly large rally in the bond market. The easiest scapegoat is the general notion of fear surrounding AI/tech share prices and debt contagion. One simple effect was investors reallocating out of stocks and into bonds. Another effect could be investors shifting out of AI corporate debt into safer havens. Either way, it doesn't feel like a coincidence that tech stocks slid roughly 5% over the exact same time frame as the 10yr rallied from 5.34 to 5.07. If we use the QQQ ETF as a loose benchmark for tech, today isn't great, but it's better than yesterday's lows. The flood of short-covering and value buying in bonds has run its course and there would need to be fresh motivations for additional gains--either from a renewed tech rout or troublingly weak economic data. None of today's reports are remotely important enough for that, so unless tech tanks hard, we wouldn't expect the rally to extend. Modest weakness in the AM is entirely forgivable and perhaps even reassuring. In other words, we could have imagined a sharper pull-back on a morning like this. If bonds end up rallying more than is justified by other inputs, it would be a positive indication for bigger-picture trend shift potential. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-10152026 Thu, 15 Oct 2026 20:09:00 GMT 6ad1379928369b9c212bb86f Matthew Graham Mortgage rates dropped again today, and at a much faster pace than yesterday's decline. Top tier 30yr fixed rates are now down to 7.33% for the average lender, a drop of more than 0.25% from the long-term highs seen just last week. There are a lot of moving parts behind the scenes so let's focus on what we can know or at least reasonably conclude. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Is this the big shift in rates we've been waiting for?  The kind that sometimes follows sustained spikes to long-term highs? While there's a chance the past 5 days COULD serve as the early indication of a broader rate recovery, it's far too soon to bank on it. The key reason is that much of the paradoxical strength of the past 2 days has been fueled by contagion concerns in the tech space. What does the tech space have to do with rates? Is it more important than inflation and economic growth? First off, the tech space and economic growth have a ton of overlap right now. If there's an ongoing pull-back in investor sentiment surrounding AI/tech stocks, and additional concern over certain companies (like Coreweave) having a contagion-like impact on other companies, all of that carries implications for economic data in the future.  The other consideration is AI-related corporate debt. This has been a big driver of upward pressure in rates at times. If investor sentiment is souring on AI-related debt, it decreases the expectations for excess issuance of that debt which, in turn, helps more mainstream rates like Treasuries and mortgages. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-10152026 Thu, 15 Oct 2026 20:07:12 GMT 6ad141a01d0f9c937d5ef729 Matthew Graham Exciting Times, But Don't Get Too Excited There's no question that the past 5 days have been the best 5 days that we've seen in a long time in terms of direction movement in rates. They're made all the more miraculous because the past 2 days included much higher inflation readings. In a vacuum, inflation data was bad for rates. But the opposing forces are/were stronger in this case. There are two to consider: AI/tech correction and bond seller exhaustion. We've said for a while that yields would eventually be high enough to prompt some value buying and that 5.34-5.35% may be 2026's version of 2023's 5.00%. As luck would have it, that factor coincided with a rapid increase in the tech sector, primarily driven by Coreweave, but with the word "contagion" also being thrown around. Here's why you should temper excitement: to whatever extent "contagion" doesn't materialize, bonds will lose a good amount of the support they've recently enjoyed. What we've seen so far could be considered "act 1" of a very enjoyable show, but it could also be a short story that ends here. The only surefire justification for a bigger rally is a sustained economic slowdown, preferable coinciding with the war ending and oil falling.  Econ Data / Events Core PPI m/m (Sep) 0.7% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev Core PPI y/y (Sep) 5.0% vs 4.4% f'cast, 4.6% prev PPI m/m (Sep) 1.3% vs 0.5% f'cast, 0.4% prev PPI y/y (Sep) 6.3% vs 5.3% f'cast, 5.4% prev Retail Sales (Sep) 0.8% vs 0.3% f'cast, 1.2% prev Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Sep) 0.1% vs 0.3% f'cast, 1.4% prev Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-10152026 Thu, 15 Oct 2026 15:50:15 GMT 6ad0c9741569105a538de705 Rob Chrisman “My coworker asked me how I’m doing this morning. Yet another third party trying to steal my data!” Data travels at the speed of light. Mickey D’s is reportedly using artificial intelligence to “dynamically” price its burgers. Imagine a lender trying that! AI filled the exhibition hall at the MBA’s conference this week. I don’t use AI to write this Commentary, but perhaps I should tack “AI” onto the end of it in case I want to raise money or attract more readers. On second thought, nah, we’re good as it is. But along those lines, AI is the focal point in today’s Chrisman LLC Demo Day, the second such free showcase of third-party provider’s products for lenders at 1PM ET. (Advances in document intelligence and large language models can now address various problems, enabling AI to identify issues upfront, generate explanations in real time, validate documents and flag fraud, and even match borrowers with alternative loan products without changing existing credit standards. This may create an incremental shift toward AI-assisted decisioning.) Featuring demos from Cotality, Wilqo, MOZAIQ Agentic AI, One Diligence, Indecomm, NightOwl, and OptifiNow. Seven companies, 10 minutes each, one connected pipeline. Chrisman Marketplace members receive free demo access. Join the Marketplace to participate as a vendor. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are presented by nCino, the platform for agentic AI in mortgage lending. nCino is helping mortgage lenders deliver a faster, simpler path to homeownership. Today’s has an interview with Polunsky Beitel Green’s Andy Duane and Tye McWhorter on DSCR lending: the growing questions around underwriting, state-by-state licensing and disclosure requirements, and regulatory and legal risk.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-10152026 Thu, 15 Oct 2026 13:42:29 GMT 6ad0e7641d0f9c937d5e435e Matthew Graham Core PPI was up 0.7 vs 0.3 forecast this morning. That's something that would normally send yields much higher. But everything is different this morning. Bonds rallied sharply in the overnight session and added a bit more to the gains after the 8:30am data. This is on top of yesterday's stunning comeback after getting rocked by higher CPI. To a small extent, the "control group" Retail Sales number may have helped, but the 8:30am gains have more to do with investors waiting to see PPI and finding it would add less than 0.1% to PCE in 2 weeks. This allows the market to maintain its focus on the biggest motivation of the past 2 days: concerns over an AI debt bubble (and big losses in several AI stocks) leading investors to reallocate bond exposure back into Treasuries and portfolio managers to pare equities holdings in favor of bonds. All of the above conveniently coincided with bond yields hitting decades-long highs last week and still being high enough to look like a good buying opportunity today. In the days ahead, it will be useful to keep the historical context in mind. We've seen our fair share of 30bp corrections that have given way to additional selling. For now, this is a sneak preview or a trial balloon for a bigger correction that COULD happen, but isn't necessarily guaranteed. It's what the beginning of such a correction would look like, but things could reverse surprisingly quickly if the market finds a reason to calm down on AI fears.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full