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National Average	%	Change
30 Yr FRM	3.87%	0.00%
15 Yr FRM	3.16%	0.02%
1 Yr ARM	2.78%	0.02%
5/1 Yr ARM	2.83%	0.03%
30 YR	3.13%	0.00%
Fed Prime	3.25%	0.00%

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Chance of 75 bps Fed Rate Cut Rises to 80% Following Nonfarm Payrolls

Fed funds futures are pricing in an 80% chance of a 75 bps rate cut by year-end following the sharpest drop in U.S. nonfarm payrolls since December 1974. The implied probability has climbed steadily from no chance to 64% a day ago. However, markets remain...

Published Fri, Dec 12 2008 3:40 PM by CEP News Feed

Filed under: fed funds futures
Chance of 75bps Fed Rate Cut Rises to 68% Following Higher Jobless Claims

Fed funds futures are pricing in a 68% chance for a 75 bps rate cut by year-end following higher-than-expected U.S. jobless claims and a weak factory orders report. The implied probability for a 75bps rate cut has increased steadily from no chance a month...

Published Thu, Dec 12 2008 5:37 PM by CEP News Feed

Filed under: interest rates, fed funds futures
Chance of 75bps Fed Rate Cuts Increases Despite Latest Government Intervention

Fed fund futures are pricing in a 40% chance of a 75bp rate cut by the year end, following negative U.S. housing data and the U.S. Government's announcement that it will pump $800 billion to revive mortgage and consumer credit markets. However, markets...

Published Tue, Nov 11 2008 5:41 PM by CEP News Feed

Filed under: interest rates, fed funds futures
Markets Pricing 80% Chance of a 50 bps Fed Cut as Core CPI Turns Negative

Fed funds futures are pricing in an 80% chance of a 50 bps rate cut by the year-end FOMC meeting, following a negative drop in the core CPI rate. The implied probability for a 50 bps rate cut has fallen steadily from 94% a week ago to 88% a day ago. The...

Published Wed, Nov 11 2008 5:05 PM by CEP News Feed

Filed under: fed funds futures
Fed Funds Futures Traders Expecting FOMC to Cut by 50 Basis Points

A stock market selloff in holiday-thinned trading led Fed funds futures traders to aggressively price in U.S. interest rate cuts. Fed funds futures are pricing in a 92% chance that the Federal Reserve will slash rates by 50 basis points at the Dec. 16...

Published Tue, Nov 11 2008 3:52 PM by CEP News Feed

Filed under: fed funds futures
Markets Price 80% Chance of 50bp Fed Cut as AIG Loan Agreement is Revamped

Fed funds futures are pricing in an 80% chance that the Federal Reserve will slash rates by 50 bps by Dec. 16 following the U.S. Treasury's announcement that it will revise its loan agreement with U.S. insurance company AIG. However, the implied probability...

Published Mon, Nov 11 2008 4:32 PM by CEP News Feed

Filed under: interest rates, fed funds futures
Markets Lean Towards 50 Bps Fed Rate Cut on Eve of Presidential Election

On the eve of the U.S. presidential election, Fed funds futures are pricing in an 83.4% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 50 bps at the next FOMC meeting on Dec. 16. In a note to clients, economists at Capital Economics wrote that regardless...

Published Tue, Nov 11 2008 4:01 PM by CEP News Feed

Filed under: federal reserve, interest rates, fed funds futures
Fed Funds Future Price In 50 bps Rate Cut, Leave Room for a Possible 75bp Cut

On the eve of the Oct 29 FOMC meeting, Fed funds futures are fully priced in for a minimum 50 bps rate cut but are also factoring in a 38% chance for a 75bp cut . The consensus among economists is less than certain. Of the 65 economists polled by Bloomberg...

Published Tue, Oct 10 2008 5:49 PM by CEP News Feed

Filed under: fed funds futures, fed funds futures
Markets Pricing in 42% Chance of 50 bps Cut on Downbeat Data

Fed funds futures are back to pricing in a 50 bps rate cut for the Oct. 16 Federal Reserve meeting on a day that saw U.S. advance retail sales fall and producer price inflation rise above expectations. Markets remain fully priced in for a minimum 25bp...

Published Wed, Oct 10 2008 4:19 PM by CEP News Feed

Filed under: fed funds futures, rate cut
Fed Funds Price in 100% Chance of a Cut as Congress Battles Over Bailout Plan

As Republicans and Democrats battle over details of the bailout package, Fed funds futures are pricing in a 68% chance of a 25 bps cut and a 32% chance of a 50 bps cut for the next Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for October 29. Led by Roy Blunt, House...

Published Fri, Sep 09 2008 1:45 PM by CEP News Feed

Filed under: interest rates, fed funds futures, congress, bailout
Fed Funds Price in 100% Chance of Rate Cut as Markets Rally

Fed funds futures have priced in a 100% chance of a rate cut for the next FOMC meeting scheduled for October 29, as markets rallied today on a CNBC report that the U.S. government has come up with a plan to deal with the financial crisis in the U.S. Markets...

Published Thu, Sep 09 2008 4:44 PM by CEP News Feed

Filed under: federal reserve, interest rates, fed funds futures

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Chance of 75 bps Fed Rate Cut Rises to 80% Following Nonfarm Payrolls

Chance of 75bps Fed Rate Cut Rises to 68% Following Higher Jobless Claims

Chance of 75bps Fed Rate Cuts Increases Despite Latest Government Intervention

Markets Pricing 80% Chance of a 50 bps Fed Cut as Core CPI Turns Negative

Fed Funds Futures Traders Expecting FOMC to Cut by 50 Basis Points

Markets Price 80% Chance of 50bp Fed Cut as AIG Loan Agreement is Revamped

Markets Lean Towards 50 Bps Fed Rate Cut on Eve of Presidential Election

Fed Funds Future Price In 50 bps Rate Cut, Leave Room for a Possible 75bp Cut

Markets Pricing in 42% Chance of 50 bps Cut on Downbeat Data

Fed Funds Price in 100% Chance of a Cut as Congress Battles Over Bailout Plan

Fed Funds Price in 100% Chance of Rate Cut as Markets Rally

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