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June 2009 - Fed and Economy Watch

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  • Mid-Day Recap: Markets Turn Sour on Weak Consumer Confidence

    Comments (0)
    by Patrick McGee on June 30 2009, 11:20 AM
    Despite early gains in the first minutes of trading, all three indexes are rapidly erasing Monday’s gains in the first 90 minutes of the session. The data has been mixed this morning, with consumer confidence falling, contraction in the Midwest slowing down, and house prices displaying a sign or two of stabilization. As off 11:00, the S&P 500 has shed 1.08% to 917, the Dow is down 1.13% to 8433, and the Nasdaq is 0.47% lower at 1835. The day began with the 9:00 release of the the Case-Shiller
    Read More

  • Consumer Confidence Stumbles as Labor Market Stagnates

    Comments (1)
    by Patrick McGee on June 30 2009, 10:44 AM
    Consumers weren’t as optimistic about economic recovery as analysts had assumed, a survey released Tuesday said. The Conference Board’s index of Consumer Confidence failed to build on its substantial gains in May, as overall sentiment retreated to 49.3 from a prior reading of 54.8. This is the first drop in sentiment since February. Both components fell this month: The Present Situation index shrunk to 24.8 from 29.7, while the Expectations index declined to 65.5 from 71.5 in May. “With
    Read More

  • Chicago PMI Indicates Recessionary Forces Slowing in June

    Comments (0)
    by Patrick McGee on June 30 2009, 10:23 AM
    Service and manufacturing in the Midwest continued to be in deep contraction in June, but the pace of slowdown improved in line with market expectations. The ISM-Chicago Business Barometer advanced by 5 points to a 39.9 reading in June, a decent improvement from the weak reading in May but still 10 points away from expansion. The report “continued to reinforce the consensus observation that this recession not only is deep, but also is broadly based,” a press release said. Details of the
    Read More

  • The Day Ahead: Q2 to End on Upbeat Note

    Comments (1)
    by Patrick McGee on June 30 2009, 8:32 AM
    It’s the final day of the first half of the year and markets look poised to climb. The US$ index is slightly lower, equity futures are pointing to an extension of Monday’s gains, and oil prices are inching closer to $72 per barrel (in Asian markets WTI broke $73 per barrel on news that a refinery had been attacked in Nigeria.) The day brings three major macro releases to markets, beginning with house prices at 9am (expected to post a record decline), followed by a regional output report
    Read More

  • Mid-Morning Recap: Markets Hope for Progress in Second Half of '09

    Comments (0)
    by Patrick McGee on June 29 2009, 11:05 AM
    Stocks opened slightly higher on Monday, took a dip in the early minutes of trading, but by 11 am all three indexes were climbing. No major data releases are scheduled for today but early trading suggests investors are optimistic about the monthly employment and manufacturing figures to be released in the coming days. Roughly 90 minutes into the session, the S&P 500 has climbed 0.80% to 926, building on top of the most rapid three-month gain in seven decades. The Dow is performing even better
    Read More

  • Stimulus Checks Boost Income in May, Savings Rate a 16 Year High

    Comments (0)
    by Patrick McGee on June 26 2009, 9:18 AM
    Personal income levels advanced far more than forecasts in May, helping consumption see its first gain in three months, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported. The rise in income is directly related to social security checks sent out in the month, so the gain is temporary and doesn’t reflect fundamental improvement in the economy. “Personal tax cuts and government income support have brought consumers back from the dead, but the recuperation period promises to be a lengthy one,”
    Read More

  • The Day Ahead: Market Awaiting Consumer Data

    Comments (0)
    by Patrick McGee on June 26 2009, 8:02 AM
    Steady gains in the S&P 500 yesterday managed to erase all the losses from earlier in the week. The index now stands 0.93% higher on the week, though futures are pointing to a lower open ahead of data at 8:30. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is down, oil is once again higher than $71, and gold has hit a 2-week high. Data this morning will have a big influence on whether markets end the week climbing or plummeting. The Personal Income & Outlays report is a key forward-looking survey on three
    Read More

  • Mid-Morning Recap: Stocks Ascend as Bernanke Defends Fed Action

    Comments (0)
    by Patrick McGee on June 25 2009, 11:03 AM
    Stocks are off to a healthy start in the first hour of trading despite news from the labor market that jobless claims were rising. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke defended the central bank’s role in Bank of America’s acquisition of Merrill Lynch, stating that the Fed acted with the “highest integrity” throughout the process. The Nasdaq is leading with a 0.92% advance in 1809, while the Dow has climbed 0.66% to 8354, and the S&P 500 is up 0.61% to 906. Data driving
    Read More

  • Q1 GDP Revised Up, Jobless Claims Soar

    Comments (0)
    by Patrick McGee on June 25 2009, 9:05 AM
    The pace of contraction from January to March was slightly slower than expected, but the most recent data on the labor market was worse than forecasts, according to two releases at 8:30 this morning. The final report on first-quarter GDP improved to -5.5%, up from -5.7% in the last estimate. Forecasters had assumed the GDP numbers would be unrevised. Two culprits were responsible for the change: businesses reduced fewer inventories than originally though, while imports ― which are a subtraction in
    Read More

  • The Day Ahead: Trading Mixed Ahead of Labor Data, Bernanke Testimony

    Comments (0)
    by Patrick McGee on June 25 2009, 8:13 AM
    Stock futures are mixed ahead of a light Thursday. Aside from the weekly jobless claims report, only one other release is on the schedule and it’s the final revision to Q1 GDP. With markets characteristically looking ahead the revisions for January to March are unlikely to carry much weight. However, at 10:00 Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will face questions about the acquisition of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America. Given that it’s just a day after the Fed’s latest policy statement
    Read More

  • FOMC Maintains Expansionary Policy. No Surprises in Statement

    Comments (15)
    by Patrick McGee on June 24 2009, 3:00 PM
    No major surprises in the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement today. The FOMC said the pace of economic contraction is slowing and should gradually resume to sustainable levels. They gave no sign of tightening policy in the near future, vowing to “employ all available tools” and keeping the Fed Funds rate rate at “exceptionally low levels . . . for an extended period.” The FOMC also said it would purchase $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities this year. Key
    Read More

  • Mid-Morning Recap: Recovery Rally After Strong Durable Goods Report and Revised Housing Data

    Comments (0)
    by Patrick McGee on June 24 2009, 11:11 AM
    Ahead of the afternoon policy statement from the Federal Reserve, markets are recovering from losses over the past week, led by an unexpectedly positive report on durable goods. Roughly 90 minutes into the session, the Nasdaq is leading the way with a 2.22% surge to 1805, while the S&P is back above 900 at with a 1.59% gain to 909, and the Dow is up 1.08% o to 8413. Driving the early morning gains was the 8:30 am Durable Goods release, which came in far above forecasts with a 1.8% increase in
    Read More

  • Rebound in Durable Goods Orders Boosts Equity Futures

    Comments (0)
    by Patrick McGee on June 24 2009, 8:53 AM
    New orders for durable goods came in well above even the most optimistic expectations in May. Led by gains across the board, new orders increased by 1.8% for the second month in a row, in stark contrast to expectations for a 0.5% decline. Forecasts had ranged from -2.0% to +1.0%. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were higher by nearly 75 points after the release, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also point to a higher open. The advance adds some credential to the argument that the economy
    Read More

  • The Day Ahead: Markets Looking Up Ahead of Fed's Policy Announcement

    Comments (0)
    by Patrick McGee on June 24 2009, 8:03 AM
    Stocks were mixed yesterday as the S&P 500 made minor gains but the Dow and Nasdaq inched lower. This morning futures are up as investors anticipate the afternoon announcement from the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee. The central bank is unlikely to alter short-term interest rates, but investors will be looking for signs of future tightening in the accompanying press release, and any new forecasts on the growth outlook could have a direct impact on the market. “With the Fed
    Read More

  • The Day Ahead: Markets Optimistic Ahead of Real Estate Data

    Comments (0)
    by Patrick McGee on June 23 2009, 8:29 AM
    After dropping 3.06% to begin the week yesterday, S&P 500 futures are moderately higher before Tuesday’s opening bell. Twin releases from the real estate market will help determine if those gains can be extended upon. The monetary policy meeting from the FOMC begins this morning but no announcements on policy will be released until tomorrow afternoon. Investors will be speculating upon potential decisions the Fed could make on purchasing long-term bonds, while the key target rate is widely
    Read More
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