Data from the U.S. manufacturing sector as well as the latest U.S. weekly jobless claims will be the main source of interest for markets as a tumultuous year comes to end.
Markets will be looking at the Chicago PMI for any hint of recovery in December. In November, the Chicago manufacturing survey dropped to 33.8, its lowest level since 1982. Economists are expecting it to reach a fresh low of 33.
ISM manufacturing will be released at the end of the week. Economists Brian Bethune and Nigel Gault from IHS Global Insight are predicting the ISM-manufacturing in December will rebound to a reading of 34, below the consensus expectation of 35.4.
"Manufacturers are taking aggressive action to reduce production in line with weak demand, and on top of this do not want to be caught with unwanted inventories," they wrote.
The U.S. employment situation will also continue to be in the spotlight, with economists forecasting initial weekly jobless claims to come in at 575k, down from the previous week's reading of 586k.
TD economic strategist Ian Pollick, however, said he expects initial jobless claims to accelerate as the labour market remains under considerable stress. "This report is weak, as has been the case since mid August, and we expect it to get worse as the U.S. economy continues to implode," Pollick wrote." It is only a matter of time until the 600K level of initial claims is breached."
Analysts at Barchart.com point out that last week's initial and continuing claims are hovering below 16 year highs. "That indicates that layoffs are continuing at a strong pace and that the number of people on the unemployment rolls is piling up quickly, thus pushing the unemployment rate higher," they wrote in a note to clients.
On Tuesday, the U.S. Conference Board will be releasing its consumer confidence index for December. In the prior month, consumer confidence dropped to 45.5. Economists from IHS Global Insight expect little change in consumer confidence. "We expect that Conference Board consumer confidence will remain steady in December, with heavy cross-currents pushing confidence in contradictory directions", they wrote.
All times in EST.
Monday
13:00 US U.S. to Sell $26B 3-Month Bills
13:00 US U.S. to Sell $27B 6-Month Bills
Tuesday
9:00 US S&P/CaseShiller Composite-20 Y/Y OCT Exp: -17.9% Prior: -17.4%
9:00 US S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index OCT Prior: +161.6
9:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager DEC Exp: +33 Prior: +33.8
10:00 US Consumer Confidence DEC Exp: +45.5 Prior: +44.9
13:00 US U.S. to Sell 4-Week Bills
14:00 US SpendingPulse Gas Demand Week Ending 26-Dec Prior: +9.41
17:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence Week Ending 28-Dec Prior: -48
Wednesday
7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications Week Ending 26-Dec Prior: +48.0%
8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Week Ending 27-Dec Exp: +575K Prior: +586K
8:30 US Continuing Claims Week Ending 20-Dec Prior: +4370K
10:00 US NAPM-Milwaukee DEC Prior: +35
10:35 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Week Ending 26-Dec Prior: -3101K
10:35 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories Week Ending 26-Dec Prior: +3336K
10:35 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory Week Ending 26-Dec Prior: +1814K
10:35 US DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization Week Ending 26-Dec Prior: +0.56%
10:35 US DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory Week Ending 26-Dec Prior: +1173K
10:35 US API U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Week Ending 26-Dec Prior: -4201K
10:35 US API U.S. Gasoline Inventories Week Ending 26-Dec Prior: +1714K
10:35 US API U.S. Distillate Inventory Week Ending 26-Dec Prior: -667K
12:00 US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change Week Ending 26-Dec Prior: -147
Thursday
There are no economic events scheduled for Thursday.
Friday
10:00 US ISM Manufacturing DEC Exp: +35.4 Prior: +36.2
10:00 US ISM Prices Paid DEC Exp: +20 Prior: +25.5
By Steve Stecyk and edited by Stephen Huebl
©CEP News Ltd. 2008