It will be a relatively busy final day before Christmas with the release of Canadian Gross Domestic Product for October and the latest jobless claims figures out of the United States.
Canadian GDP is forecast to have declined to 0.3% in October after rising 0.1% in the prior month.
"I think when the history books are written on this front we are likely to determine the recession began in earnest in Canada in October and then really gathered momentum in November," said BMO deputy chief economist Doug Porter of Statistics Canada's monthly GDP report.
October is expected to be the first of several negative months of growth, Scotiabank economist Karen Cordes said. Scotiabank is forecasting three consecutive quarters of negative growth beginning in the closing months of 2008.
The U.S. Personal Consumption and Expenditure report is expected to give further evidence that American consumers are cutting back on their spending. Personal consumption is expected to drop back by 0.7% in November, following a 1.0% decrease in October
The inflation measures of this report will be less important than the spending and income components, as inflation worries are off the radar due to rapidly declining commodity prices. The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation is the PCE core deflator, which strips out volatile food and energy components. It is expected to remain flat for the second straight month, following a 0.2% uptick in September. Annually, the index set to come in at 2.0%, equivalent to the Fed's unofficial target level.
Personal income for the month is projected to come in flat in November after rising 0.3% in the previous month. Annually, personal income is set to decline 0.7%, after dropping 1.0% in the prior month.
Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at TD Securities, said wages grew in November, but the personal income index will likely remain flat as rising wages will be offset by the loss of half-a-million jobs.
Orders for big ticket items in November are expected to remain soft in the release of the Census Bureau's durable goods report. Economists expect a 3% drop after the previous month's sharp 6.9% decline. The closely-watched ex-transportation component is also expected to fall by 3.0% in November, fallowing a 5.4% decline in the previous month.
"With the US economy deep in recession, and many of its largest trading partners in no better shape, the fortune of the US manufacturing sector is on a clear downward trend," said Meny Grauman from CIBC World Markets. Grauman expects the declines to be led by another sharp fall in commercial aircraft orders along with unprecedented weakness in the auto sector.
U.S. unemployment data will come in the form of weekly jobless claims. Initial jobless claims are expected to continue to rise in the week ending Dec. 20, to 558k from the prior month's 554k level. Continuing claims are projected to rise to 4410k from the previous week's 4384k figure.
Markets will be interested to see if energy prices will continue their downward trend with the release of Department of Energy crude oil inventories. According to analyst estimates, crude oil inventories are expected to increase by 500k barrels, compared to the prior 525k gain. Gasoline inventories are forecast to increase by 750k barrels following the previous 1295k gain. Distillate inventories are set to rise to 700k, down from last week's 2936K increase.
All Times in EST
Wednesday:
7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications W/E December 19 Prior: +2.9%
8:30 CA Gross Domestic Product (M/M) October Exp: -0.3% Prior: +0.1%
8:30 US Personal Income November Exp: 0.0% Prior: +0.3%
8:30 US Personal Spending November Exp: -0.7% Prior: -1.0%
8:30 US PCE Deflator (Y/Y) November Exp: +1.5% Prior: +3.2%
8:30 US PCE Core (M/M) November Exp: 0.0% Prior: 0.0%
8:30 US PCE Core (Y/Y) November Exp: +2.0% Prior: +2.1%
8:30 US Durable Goods Orders November Exp: -3.0% Prior: -6.2% Revised: -6.9%
8:30 US Durables Ex Transportation November - Exp: -3.0% Prior: -4.4% Revised: -5.4%
8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E December 20 Exp: 555K Prior: 554K
8:30 US Continuing Claims W/E December 13 Exp: 4410K Prior: 4384K
10:35 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories W/E December 19 Exp: +900K Prior:+525K
10:35 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories W/E December 19 Exp:+750K Prior:+1295K
10:35 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory W/E December 19 Exp: +900K Prior:+2936K
10:35 US DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization W/E December 19 Exp: -0.13% Prior: +3.1%
12:00 US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change W/E December 19 Exp: -140 Bcf Prior: -124 Bcf
By Steve Stecyk and edited by Stephen Huebl
©CEP News Ltd. 2008