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The Day Ahead: Philly Fed, U.S. Jobless Claims

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Market participants will be paying close attention to see if manufacturing in the Philadelphia region has deteriorated any further in December.

Economists are expecting the Philly fed survey to come in at -40.5, down from the prior -39.3 reading.

Rudy Narvas, macroeconomist at 4Cast, said the Philly Fed index will reflect extreme weakness overall in the fourth quarter, and could decline as much as 5%. Narvas said the previous month's Philly Fed index was negative from every angle, and leading indicators such as the new orders component point towards further deterioration in December.

Unemployment data continues to be an important economic indicator for the U.S. Initial jobless claims for the week ending Dec. 13 are projected to come in at 558k, a decrease from the prior week's 573k level. Continuing claims for the week ending Dec. 6 are forecast to come in at 4375K, down from the previous week 4429 figure.

Shifting the focus to Canada, retail sales will be one of three scheduled reports. Retail sales are expected to have declined 1.1% in October, after rising 1.1% in the prior month. Retail sales stripping out the automobile sales component are forecast to decline 1.0% after the prior month's 0.8% gain.

Statistics Canada will release its composite leading index for the month of November. It is expected to contract 0.4% for the month, matching the prior month's result.

Canadian international securities transactions for October are the final report out of Canada. Transactions are forecast to fall C$1 billion after contracting C$267 million in September.

In terms of speakers, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher will deliver remarks on current economic crisis at an event in Dallas.

All Times in EST:

8:30 CA International Securities Transactions October Exp: C$-1.000B Prior: C$-0.267B

8:30 CA Leading Indicators (M/M) November Exp: -0.4% Prior: -0.4%

8:30 CA Retail Sales (M/M) October Exp: -1.1% Prior: +1.1%

8:30 CA Retail Sales Less Autos (M/M) October Exp: -1.0% Prior: +0.8%

8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E December 13 Exp: +558K Prior: +573K

8:30 US Continuing Claims W/E December 6 Exp: +4375K Prior: +4429K

8:30 US State Quarterly Personal Income Q1 2007- Q3 2009

10:00 US Philadelphia Fed. December Exp: -40.5 Prior: -39.3

10:00 US Leading Indicators November Exp: -0.4% Prior: -0.8%

10:35 US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change W/E December 12 Exp:-115 Bcf Prior: -67 Bcf

13:30 US Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks on current economic crisis at an event in Dallas

By Steve Stecyk and edited by Megan Ainscow
©CEP News Ltd. 2008


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