Markets are currently pricing in the following probabilities for future interest rate moves as of the close on Thursday:
FED - OIS Implied Rates
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25bp cut and an 80% chance of a 50bp cut by year-end.
Markets are pricing in no chance of hike by Sept. 15, 2009.
BOC - OIS Implied Rates
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 50bp cut and a 54% chance of a 75bp cut by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 100bp cut and an 8% chance of a 125bp cut by Sept. 2, 2009.
BOJ - OIS Implied Rates
Markets are pricing in a 2% chance of a 25bp cut by year-end
Markets are pricing in an 11% chance of a 25bp cut by May 22, 2009.
RBA - OIS Implied Rates
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 100bp cut and a 92% chance of a 125bp cut by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 225bp cut and a 72% chance of a 250bp cut by June 30, 2009.
RBNZ - OIS Implied Rates
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 125bp cut and a 68% chance of a 150bp cut by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 225bp cut and a 59% chance of a 250bp cut by Sept. 10, 2009.
BOE - SONIA Implied Rate
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 100bp cut and an 86% chance of a 125bp cut by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 150bp cut and a 65% chance of a 175bp cut by June 4, 2009.
ECB - EONIA Implied Rate
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 50bp cut and a 75% chance of a 75bp cut by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 100bp cut and a 67% chance of a 125bp cut by June 4, 2009.
By Ryan Szporer and edited by Nancy Girgis
©CEP News Ltd. 2008