As commodity prices continue to fall due to weakening demand around the globe, producer prices in the U.S. are expected to deflate in October, while the year-over-year increases should be slashed significantly. Markets are unlikely to give the report much attention however, as inflation is no longer considered a threat.
The consensus expects the all-items index to fall back by 1.8% in the month, which would mark the third straight month of deflating prices. Expectations from the 76 economists surveyed vary widely, however, ranging from -0.3% to -1.9%. September prices fell 0.4%.
In addition to falling commodity prices, economists at IHS Global Insight said the recent slowdown in manufacturing has reduced demand for durable goods and capital equipment, which has eased price pressures in each stage of production.
On a year-over-year basis, the all-items index is set to advance by 6.2%, a figure well above the Fed's preferred rate, but far below the 8.7% advance seen in the prior month's index.
Looking at the core rate, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, the consensus is looking for a 0.1% rise, following a larger-than-expected 0.4% advance in September. Expectations range from -0.4% to +0.3%.
The forecasting team at JPMorgan expects core inflation to continue moderating in the medium-term.
"Falling commodity prices and softer economic conditions could soon translate to a moderation in core inflation, and indeed this is already happening at the intermediate goods stage," they wrote. "Plunging agricultural prices also suggest a moderation in food inflation."
Analysts from Barclays said the risk is to the downside of the consensus, as other factors are at work besides commodities to pull prices down.
"The core PPI can be unusually volatile in October due to price changes related to the auto model-year end turnover," they wrote. "There is also some chance of a downward surprise in this component."
Annually, core PPI inflation is expected to rise by 4.0% - the same rate seen in the last report.
On the report's market potential, Colin Cieszynski, an analyst from CMC Markets Canada, said the PPI report could have some short term effect in equity markets, but that it's unlikely since traders' top concern is on growth.
"Things have come down so much that it is unlikely to have an upside surprise," Cieszynski said. "It is not a report I would think would drive a big negative response right now. We know inflation is coming down and it's publicly visible."
The Bureau of Labor Statisticss report on producer prices comes just one day ahead of the more important consumer price index, which economists expect to fall by 0.8%. In the core measure, CPI is expected to rise by 2.4%. Those expectations could change following the PPI release.
By Patrick McGee and edited by Stephen Huebl
©CEP News Ltd. 2008