The possibility of large rate cuts from the Bank of England and European Central Bank will top the early morning's economic news, followed by U.S. jobless claims and the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index for Canada.
At 7 a.m. EST, the BOE is expected to lower its Bank Rate 50 bps to 4.00%, but economists are not ignoring the possibility of more aggressive action, including a 100bp cut. A 75bp cut is fully priced in by the markets.
At 7:45 a.m. EST, the European Central Bank is unanimously expected to cut rates by 50 bps to 3.25%, a view also fully shared by markets.
U.S. weekly jobless claims for the week ending Nov. 1 is main U.S. data point of the day and will be released at 8:30 a.m. EST. Weekly jobless claims are expected to total 447k from 479k the week prior. Continuing claims for the week ending Oct. 25 are expected to rise to 3743k versus 3715k previously.
At 10 a.m. EST, Canadian dollar traders will pay attention to the Ivey School of Business' Canadian manufacturing PMI, which is expected to decline to 55.0 in October from 61.0 in September. Note that the Bank of Canada does not look at this data point since it is not adjusted for seasonality.
At 10:35 a.m. EST, energy traders will look at the Energy Information Administration's natural gas storage for week ending Oct. 31, which is expected to rise 24 Bcf after 46 Bcf gain in previous week.
Thursday's Events:
7:00 GB BOE Announces Rates Exp 4.00% Prior 4.50%
7:45 EU ECB Announces Interest Rates Exp: 3.25% Prior: 3.75%
8:30 EU Trichet Speaks at ECB Monthly News Conference
8:30 CA Building Permits (M/M) September Exp: -1.0% Prior: -13.5%
8:30 CA Bankruptcy Statistics September (Prior: +5.8%)
8:30 CA Provincial Economic Accounts 2007
8:30 US Nonfarm Productivity Q3 Preliminary Exp: +0.7% Prior: +4.3%
8:30 US Unit Labor Costs Q3 Preliminary Exp: +3.0% Prior: -0.5%
8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims Week Ending 1-Nov Exp: 477K Prior: 479K
8:30 US Continuing Claims Week Ending 25-Oct Exp: 3743K Prior: 3715K
10:00 CA Ivey Purchasing Managers Index October Exp: 55.0 Prior: 61.0
10:35 US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change Week Ending 31-Oct Exp: +30 Bcf Prior: +46 Bcf
19:00 US Fed's Warsh Speaks to Investors, Economists in New York
US ICSC Chain Store Sales (Y/Y) October Exp: +0.7% Prior: +1.0%
By Erik Kevin Franco and edited by Nancy Girgis
©CEP News Ltd. 2008