Markets are currently pricing in the following probabilities for future interest rate moves as of the close on Wednesday:
FED - OIS Implied Rates
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 50bp cut and an 8% chance of a 75bp cut by the next meeting on Oct. 29.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 50bp cut and a 12% chance of a 75bp cut by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 15% chance of a 25bp cut by Aug. 4, 2009.
BOC - OIS Implied Rates
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25bp cut and an 17% chance of a 50bp cut by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25bp cut and a 43% chance of a 50bp cut by Sept. 2, 2009.
BOJ - OIS Implied Rates
Markets are pricing in a 10% chance of a 25bp cut by the next meeting on Oct. 31.
Markets are pricing in a 24% chance of a 25bp cut by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 43% chance of a 25bp cut by April 7, 2009.
RBA - OIS Implied Rates
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 50bp cut and an 83% chance of a 75bp cut by the next meeting on Nov. 4.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 100bp cut and a 96% chance of a 125bp cut by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 175bp cut and an 80% chance of a 200bp cut by June 2, 2009.
BOE - SONIA Implied Rate
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 75bp cut and a 20% chance of a 100bp cut by the next meeting on Nov. 6.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 50bp cut and a 90% chance of a 75bp cut by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 150bp cut and a 64% chance of a 175bp cut by May 7, 2009.
ECB - EONIA Implied Rate
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25bp cut and a 14% chance of a 50bp cut by the next meeting on Nov. 6.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25bp cut and a 52% chance of a 50bp cut by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 75bp cut and a 58% chance of a 100bp cut by May 7, 2009.
By Ryan Szporer and edited by Nancy Girgis
©CEP News Ltd. 2008