Fed funds futures are back to pricing in a 50 bps rate cut for the Oct. 16 Federal Reserve meeting on a day that saw U.S. advance retail sales fall and producer price inflation rise above expectations.
Markets remain fully priced in for a minimum 25bp rate cut, but are now factoring in a 42% chance that the Fed funds rate will be lowered to 1.00% from 1.25%.
U.S. retail sales fell by more than expected on both fronts in September, as the all-items index declined by 1.2%, while retail sales excluding autos declined 0.6%, according to advance estimates released from the Department of Commerce.
The U.S. Department of Labor's seasonally adjusted core measure of producer price inflation grew above expectations with a 0.4% month-over-month increase in September, pushing the annual advance to a 17-year high at 4.0%. The all-items measure of producer price inflation fell 0.4% in the month, marking the second month of deflation.
Economists from RDQ expect that the decline in commodity prices will push core goods prices lower, resulting in a Fed rate cut in October.
"The Fed will expect the weakness in commodity prices and the decline in energy costs to feed through to finished goods production and will not be unduly concerned by this gain," the economists wrote. "We still see the Fed cutting the [F]ed funds target rate by 25 basis points on October 29th."
For the Dec. 16 meeting, the implied probability is fully priced in for a 50 bps rate cut. Markets have now begun to price in a 17% chance of a 75bp cut, which would lower the Fed funds rate to 0.75%.
Looking ahead to the Jan. 28, 2009 FOMC meeting, markets remain fully priced in for a 50bp rate cut. Markets are also factoring in an 11.6% chance of a 75bp cut and a 7.9% chance of no rate change.
By Steve Stecyk and edited by Sarah Sussman
©CEP News Ltd. 2008