As Republicans and Democrats battle over details of the bailout package, Fed funds futures are pricing in a 68% chance of a 25 bps cut and a 32% chance of a 50 bps cut for the next Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for October 29.
Led by Roy Blunt, House Republicans have agreed to return to the negotiating table on Friday to salvage legislation geared at saving the financial system in the United States.
The announcement came after a press conference from Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid explaining that while both sides agree that a serious threat to the financial system exists and needs to be resolved, Republicans have different opinions on how the legislation should be formulated.
Strategists at BBH are pricing in a 25 bps cut at the next FOMC meeting and a 30% chance of a 50 bps cut.
"The pendulum of market sentiment has swung hard away from a rate hike that the market had flirted with and toward a rate cut. Recent comments from Bernanke seem to reflect a growing concern about the downside risks to growth," the strategists wrote. "The Fed funds futures strip has an October rate cut and a December rate cut nearly fully discounted in current prices."
Markets are now pricing in a rate cut for the year-end meeting on December 16. The implied probability is factoring in a 49.5% chance of a 25 bps cut, a 41.8% chance of a 50 bps cut and an 8.7% chance of a 75 bps cut.
Meanwhile, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard (non-voter) does not see the need for a rate cut. In a question and answer session following his speech on the U.S. economic outlook, Bullard said rate cuts would not be effective in the current economic climate and that the impact of the previous cuts should be felt this fall.
Looking ahead to the meeting scheduled on January 28, Fed funds futures are pricing in a 48.5% chance of a 25 bps cut, down from the 54.5% expectation a day ago. The expectation for a 50 bps cut has grown to 37.4% from 23.7% a day ago, and from 6.2% a week ago. For the first time, markets are pricing in a 7.6% chance of a 75 bps rate cut.
All data taken at 1:45 pm
By Steve Stecyk and edited by Sarah Sussman
©CEP News Ltd. 2008