The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to its lowest level since 2001 in August, falling to -1.59 in the month, down from July's downwardly revised reading of -0.93. All four broad categories made negative contributions to the index this month.
The three-month moving average fell to -1.09 from the previous report's reading of -0.92.
The report says a three-month average below -0.70 indicates an increased likelihood that a recession has begun. The index has been below that level for 9 months now. July's reading was initially reported at -0.67.
Of the total 85 economic indicators that make up the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, 68 made negative contributions while only 17 had positive results.
The decline was led by production indicators, which fell to -0.75 in the month, down from the -0.13 reading in July.
The sales, orders and inventories category made a negative contribution of -0.05 in August.
Employment-related indicators came in at -0.49 in the month, down from -0.44 in July.
The consumption and housing category made a contribution of -0.27 in August, a slight improvement from the -0.33 reading in July.
By Patrick McGee and edited by Stephen Huebl
©CEP News Ltd. 2008