The 0.1% drop in consumer prices marks the first overall decline in prices in over two years, and some economists are saying the moderation could have a direct effect on the Fed's target funds rate.
The seasonally-adjusted U.S. Consumer Price Index rose in line with expectations on both fronts, as the core rate ticked up 0.2% (0.194%) in August, contributing to a 2.5% year-over-year change. Total inflation fell 0.1% (-0.137%) in the month but rose 5.4% on the year, according to data released by the U.S. Labor Department on Tuesday.
The decline in prices was led by a fall in energy prices, which fell 3.1% in August, in contrast to a 27.2% year-over-year gain. Gas prices fell 4.2% in the month but have risen 35.6% in the year, and fuels & utilities fell 1.1% in the month but rose 15.3% on the year.
Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at TD Securities, called the details of the report "fairly mixed," noting that energy prices fell for the first time since February, as anticipated, but that prices for food, apparel, and recreation each edged higher in the month. But overall, he said prices should continue to fall in the coming months, which will give some room for the Fed to cut rates if it is deemed necessary.
"With the FOMC meeting today, the decline in the headline index and evidence that core consumer prices may also be moderating will come as some relief," Mulraine said.
Going further in the same line of thinking, Paul Ferley, assistant chief economist at RBC Capital Markets, said the Fed will "likely take some comfort in the moderation" from the report, and he even forecasted a 50 basis point cut in Tuesday's meeting.
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nflationary risks are likely to take a backseat to the downside risks to growth that have emerged in recent days where financial market turmoil has ratcheted up the cost of capital once again," he said.
As of 9:40 EDT, 100% of Fed Funds Futures were calling for a rate cut. Seventy-six percent were pricing in a 25 basis point cut; the remaining 24% are pricing in a half-point cut.
Jennifer Lee, economics at BMO Capital Markets, noted that housing fell 0.1%, the first month-to-month drop in over five years.
On the 1.5% decline in transportation prices, Ferley said the decrease "reflects weakening demand and attempts by the auto companies to move out the 2008 models before the 2009 lines arrive."
There were no revisions to the prior month's data. The annual gains in inflation were one-tenth above expectations in both the core and all-items indexes.
The Fed's unofficial target rate for core inflation - which excludes volatile food and energy components - is 2.0% year-over-year.
Prior to the release, some were skeptical the report would have any influence on the Fed's decision, to be announced at 2:15 EDT.
Mark Frey, vice-president of FX trading at Custom House, said, "I think all the data is going to be taking a back seat to the events. Yes, you might get some short term chop and volatility from it but no one is trading data, they are trading events," he said.
By Patrick McGee and edited by Stephen Huebl
©CEP News Ltd. 2008