Investor sentiment remains optimistic this morning after markets surged on Tuesday following a consumer confidence report that rose beyond all forecasts. European and Asian markets followed suit on Wednesday, with the Nikkei closing with a gain of 1.37%, the Shanghai up 1.71%, the German Dax up 0.13%, and the Eurostoxx climbing 0.32%.
The only major release for the U.S. on Wednesday is the April report for Existing Home Sales, to be published at 10 am. Analysts expect to see a small gain in sales of previously constructed homes, following a 3.0% decrease in March. The consensus view among economists is to see an annualized pace of 4.67 million sales in April, up from 4.57 million in the March report.
“Home affordability has certainly helped drive buyers back into the market, especially those searching for existing homes where prices have fallen the most due to foreclosures,” said BTMU’s Ellen Zentner. “Nevertheless, affordability is at an all-time high, mortgage rates are very low, and the government’s $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit is hard to ignore.”
Not everyone is optimistic about the report, however. Analysts from IHS Global Insight said existing sales have recently been driven by distressed sales versus weak demand, and in April “weak demand will win this tug-of-war, resulting in another drop in existing home sales.” They forecast a figure of 4.47 million sales.
In the last report, the level of inventory overhang was 9.8 months, moving up from 9.7 months in February. A 6-month level is considered healthy.
Elsewhere in the housing market, the weekly MBA report indicated early in the morning that loan applications decreased 14.2% in the week ending May 22.
Analysts from BMO Capital Markets said Wednesday’s housing data may take a backseat to the 1 pm Treasury auction, which will sell $35 billion of 5-year notes.
“Given the seismic jump in long-term yields in recent weeks, a weak auction could further pound the Treasury market,” said BMO economist Douglas Porter. “Yesterday’s $40 billion 2-year auction met with strong demand, but the bond market tanked in any event on the upswing in consumer sentiment, and there are concerns that the longer maturities will not see the same strong response.”
Outside of data and auctions, the FT reported that Stanford professor John B. Taylor (of ‘Taylor rule’ fame) believes U.S. public debt will continue to rise at a faster rate than GDP, inducing fears that the U.S. could lose its AAA-rating.