Stock indexes were unable to hold onto their morning gains on Wednesday, ending the day down about 0.5%.To begin Thursday, that decline looks set to continue as the morning news is grim, and a Jobless Claims report failed to indicate any turnaround in the labor market.
Just before 8am EST, Dow futures were down 43 points, S&P 500 futures had fallen 5.6 points, and Nasdaq futures had slid 9.75 points.
Speaking to Bloomberg News on Wednesday, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said that “until the price of homes flattens out we still have a very serious potential mortgage crisis.” He also said banks were still in need of large capital injections.
Greenspan expects second-quarter growth to decline by an annual rate of 1.0%.
The Wall Street Journal notes that the U.S. government plans to pump another $7.0 billion into GM’s financing arm, GMAC, under a program that could be worth close to $14 billion.
Jumping back to data news, the 8:30 release of Jobless Claims is one of the most important data points this week, as it is the survey week for the official NonFarm Payrolls report for May.
The report, just released, indicates that 631,000 people filed for initial unemployment benefits in the week ending May 16, compared to an upwardly revised 643,000 is the previous week. Analysts were expecting claims to fall to 625k.
Just before the release, Jennifer Lee from BMO Capital Market said: “It is a widely accepted view that claims will remain elevated in the coming months due to, among other things, auto sector shutdowns. Continuing claims remain an important indicator to judge how much higher the jobless rate will climb and when the recession will end.”
Continuing Claims also rose 75k for the week ending May 9 to 6.662 million, a new all-time high. The rise indicates that those losing their jobs are finding it extremely difficult to regain employment.
At 10, two more indexes could help shape the morning’s market direction.
The Philadelphia Fed’s Business Conditions Index is expected to improve for the third straight month, though conditions overall remain quite negative. The consensus looks for a -18 reading compared to a -24.4 score in April. An upside surprise in the Empire State manufacturing survey is boosting expectations for the regional manufacturing report.
April’s Leading Indicators Index, a key forward-looking survey, is also released at 10. Analysts at DeutscheBank expect rising stock prices and improved consumer sentiment to give the survey sizable gains, though it won’t be pointing towards economic growth just yet.
After markets close, two officials from the Fed will give an update on the economic outlook. Charles Plosser, president of the Philadelphia Fed, will speak before Money Marketeers of New York University at 7 pm, while his equivalent at the Boston Fed, Eric Rosengren, will address the Worcester Economic Club at 7:45 pm.