A combination of final fourth quarter GDP statistics for the United States, alongside weekly jobless claims data and some Fed speakers are the day's main economic events for the North American session on Thursday.
Economists expect fourth quarter GDP to have contracted an annualized 6.6%, compared to the advance estimate of -6.2%. Consumer spending is expected to fall 4.4%, compared to the 4.3% fall previously reported. No revisions are expected to the GDP price index and core PCE, which came in at +0.5% and +0.6% respectively. The release is slated for 8:30 a.m. EDT.
Simultaneously, the U.S. Labor Department will release initial and continuing jobless claims for the weeks ending March 21 and 14 respectively. Economists expect initial jobless claims to rise to 650k from 646k the week prior. Meanwhile, continuing claims are expected to reach 5475k compared to the 5473k reported previously.
According to a research note from Wachovia, the ongoing increase in initial claims "suggests that we will see another outsized decline in nonfarm payrolls and further increases in the unemployment rate¥With total revenue declining at its worst pace since the late 1950s, many businesses and governments are in survival mode and have no choice but to cut jobs."
Also of interest will be speeches from two FOMC voting members: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, due to speak at 5 a.m. EDT, and Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, due to speak from 9:25 a.m. EDT. Markets are also due to hear comments from Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, speaking from noon EDT, and Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern, from 1 p.m. EDT.
At 10 a.m. EDT U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on financial regulation, but this is likely to be a repeat of recent testimony from the Treasury Secretary.
The 1 p.m. EDT auction of $24 billion in U.S. seven-year notes could also garner the attention of market participants.
All times in EDT.
Schedule
5:00 US Fed's Lockhart Speaks at Banque de France Conference
8:30 US GDP (Q/Q) (Y/Y) Q4 Final Exp: -6.6% Prior: -6.2%
8:30 US Personal Consumption Q4 Exp: -4.4% Prior: -4.3%
8:30 US GDP Price Index Q4 Exp: +0.5% Prior: +0.5%
8:30 US Core PCE (Q/Q) Q4 Exp: +0.8% Prior: +0.8%
8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E March 20 Exp: +650K Prior: +646K
8:30 US Continuing Claims W/E March 14 Exp: +5475K Prior: +5473K
9:25 US Fed's Lacker Speaks to students at College of Charleston
10:00 US Geithner Testifies to House Financial Panel on Regulation
10:30 US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change W/E March 20 Prior: -30
12:00 US Fed's Fisher speaks on the global economic crisis
13:00 US Fed's Stern speaks in Minneapolis on `Too Big to Fail'
13:00 US Treasury to Sell $24B 7-Year Notes
By Erik Kevin Franco
©CEP News Ltd. 2009