A second look at U.S. Q4 GDP, followed by the Chicago PMI and some Fed speak, tops the economic news of the day while Canada will receive its fourth quarter current account balance.
At 8:30 a.m. EST, Statistics Canada will release its fourth-quarter current account of the balance of payments. Economists expect a deficit of C$5.1 billion, compared to Q3's C$5.6 billion surplus.
Also at 8:30 a.m. EST, Statistics Canada will release its industrial product and raw materials price indexes for January. Economists expect the IPPI to fall another 0.5% month-over-month, following the 1.9% decline previously, while the RMPI is forecast to decline 2.3% on the month, after a 15.4% contraction in December.
Turning to the U.S., at 8:30 a.m. EST, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its second look at U.S. fourth-quarter GDP. Economists expect the economy to have contracted an annualized 5.4%, compared to the advance estimate of -3.8%. Consumer spending is expected to fall 3.7%, compared to the 3.5% fall initially reported, and no revisions are expected to the GDP price index and core PCE, which came in at -0.1% and +0.6%, respectively.
At 9:45 a.m. EST, the Institute for Supply Management will release its February manufacturing PMI for Chicago. The headline index is expected to fall to 33.0 from 33.3. Economists will also pay attention to new orders, employment and prices paid, which came in at 30.7, 34.8 and 39.8, respectively, in January.
At 9:45 a.m. EST, Reuters and the University of Michigan will release their final February consumer sentiment index, which economists expect to be revised to a reading of 56.0 from 56.2. Markets will also pay attention to the current conditions index, estimated to come in at 67.1, the economic outlook index, projected to come in at 49.1, as well as one-year inflation expectations, which came in at 1.6% in the preliminary report.
At 10 a.m. EST, the Institute for Supply Management will release its Milwaukee PMI for February, which is expected to pick up two points to 35.0.
At 10:45 a.m. EST, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen (voter) and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (non-voter) will speak on oil price shocks at an event in New York City.
At 1:45 p.m. EST, Chicago Fed President Eric Rosengren (voter) and Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser (non-voter) will speak on monetary policy at an event in New York City.
8:30 CA Current Account (BOP) Q4 Exp: -$5.1B Prior: +$5.6B
8:30 CA Industrial Product Price (M/M) January Exp: -0.5% Prior: -1.9%
8:30 CA Raw Materials Price Index (M/M) January Exp: -2.3% Prior: -15.4%
8:30 US GDP (Q/Q) (Annualized) Q4 Preliminary Exp: -5.4% Prior: -3.8%
8:30 US Personal Consumption Exp: -3.7% Prior: -3.5%
8:30 US GDP Price Index Q4 Exp: -0.1% Prior: -0.1%
8:30 US Core PCE (Q/Q) Q4 Exp: +0.6% Prior: +0.6%
9:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager February Exp: +33.0 Prior: +33.3
10:00 US University of Michigan/Reuters Confidence February Final Exp: +56.0 Prior: +56.2
10:00 US NAPM-Milwaukee February Exp: +35.0 Prior: +33.0
10:45 US Fed's Yellen, Bullard Comment on Oil Prices and Policy
By Erik Kevin Franco and edited by Stephen Huebl
©CEP News Ltd. 2009