With the Federal Reserve's key lending rate at its lowest level ever, the door has been opened to speculate on what the U.S. central bank will discuss in its two-day meeting beginning Tuesday. The Fed isn't expected to deviate from the status quo, but analysts will be watching for any comment on the policy outlook.
"The two issues that are normally central - where the target funds rate is going and how the committee describes the economy - will likely be the two least interesting aspects of the meeting statement," said Michael Feroli, U.S. economist at JPMorgan.
Usually the Fed's Open Market Committee meetings conclude with a statement indicating the target for its key lending rate, but on Dec. 16 that rate was slashed to less than 0.25% and the Fed made it clear that rates will hold at "exceptionally low levels...for some time." With traditional monetary policy now out of the picture, Fed watchers expect board members to discuss the progress of quantitative easing - the Fed's policy of flooding the system with liquidity.
When the Fed shifted direction to a series of lending programs, the central bank's balance sheet ballooned to $2.1 trillion, compared to around $910 billion in January 2007.
Analysts at Barclays Capital said the economic data since the last meeting have "remained consistent with a sharp contraction in real GDP growth and employment," which suggests the Fed has no impetus to change policy.
Other data have been mixed: financial markets have fallen around 9% since mid-December and 10-year Treasury yields have risen 35 basis points, but the TED spread - an implicit measure of how trusting banks are - has fallen dramatically since peaking in mid-October.
"Overall, the case for credit easing remains intact, and we expect the Fed to continue to pursue this policy aggressively in coming months," the Barclays analysts said.
Even if the statement is on the dull side, there should be plenty for markets to watch out for, specifically with regard to purchasing longer-term Treasuries.
Rudy Narvas, macroeconomist at 4Cast, said the rise in 30-year fixed rate mortgages as well as Treasury yields puts pressure on the Fed to start buying government bonds, particularly 10-year bonds, to bring the overall level of rates lower.
"This should support the housing market through not only the creation of new mortgages but also encourage more refinancing, particularly the wave of [adjustable rate mortgages] that are set for reset over the next year or so," he said, adding that such a move could prevent foreclosures which are devastating the housing market.
JPMorgan's Feroli also said any talk of purchasing longer-term Treasuries will be the most interesting aspect of the statement. However, the Fed may be reluctant to take such action, he said.
"Unlike the Fed's reserve management procedures, where the effect on short rates is fairly well-established, there is no firm understanding of how responsive longer rates would be to Fed purchases," Feroli commented.
He added that some members of the FOMC are already concerned about the Fed's expanding balance sheet, and they may argue that such purchases "either constitute a reckless expansion of the monetary base or represent an involvement with fiscal policy that could jeopardize the Fed's independence in the longer-run."
In the previous statement, the Fed said it is "evaluating the potential benefits" of buying Treasuries.
Aside from purchasing Treasuries, the FOMC statement has little room to comment on new lending facilities.
Indeed, the FOMC does not even have responsibility for the Fed's liquidity operations. That task is left to the board of Governors, as Capital Economics' Paul Ashworth pointed out in a note to clients.
"With interest rates a non-issue, FOMC members are sure to spend most of the meeting discussing the Fed's various liquidity measures, including the possibility of buying Treasury securities again," he said. "However, any changes are more likely to be announced in a separate press release from the Board of Governors."
Two days after the Fed's statement, markets will see the release of Q4 GDP, which will be the most important data point of the week.
By Patrick McGee and edited by Stephen Huebl
©CEP News Ltd. 2009