http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mortgage-rates Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06112026 Thu, 11 Jun 2026 20:00:00 GMT 6a2b15f8434b29dedc2b1a48 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates began the day in uneventful fashion with the average lender right in line with yesterday's latest levels. Things might have gotten off to a slightly better start, but higher inflation in this morning's econ data and discouraging war-related headlines put upward pressure on bond yields (yields and rates are technically the same thing and they move in the same direction). The bulk of the day remained uneventful but that changed abruptly at 1:30pm when news circulated that Trump cancelled today's planned air strikes and said that both sides had approved final details of a permanent ceasefire, and that a time/place of a deal signing would be announced shortly. Markets reacted swiftly with stocks rallying, oil falling, and rates dropping. Mortgage lenders prefer to set rates only once per day, but they will make mid-day changes if the underlying bond market makes a big enough move. Today's was easily big enough, and a vast majority of lenders made friendly revisions to their daily rate offerings in short order. The net effect brough the average lender to the lowest levels since last Thursday. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06102026 Wed, 10 Jun 2026 18:32:00 GMT 6a29afc8b54b9c7998ad256e Matthew Graham There's been remarkably little change in mortgage rates so far this week. Monday saw a modest increase vs Friday, but since then, there's been essentially no change. Today's rates were technically 0.01% lower than yesterday's, but many lenders were perfectly unchanged. This is an acceptable result given the presence of high stakes economic data and ongoing war related headlines. The data in question was the Consumer Price Index (CPI), an inflation report that occasionally causes significant volatility for rates. Today's CPI (for the month of May) came in right in line with expectations, and slightly lower than expected when excluding food and energy prices. It seems to bear repeating that when CPI comes in lower than expected or lower versus the previous month, this rarely means that prices are falling. Rather, prices simply didn't go up quite as much as last month, but they're still rising at an unacceptably quick pace. Fortunately, rates get in position for forecasted results. Thus, the data merely needs to align with forecasts to avoid causing volatility. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06092026 Tue, 09 Jun 2026 19:42:00 GMT 6a286e9f660bc1b07a4d6a90 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates put an end to the most recent spike that followed last Friday's jobs report. Most of the upward movement happened on Friday, but yesterday offered a modest aftershock. Those two days brought the top tier 30yr fixed rate up to 6.68 from 6.58 on Thursday. Today's average remained perfectly flat at 6.68%. War-related headlines had periodic impacts on both oil prices and the bond/rate market. The scariest moment of the day for rates followed a headline that Iran had shot down a U.S. helicopter. Trump posted that the U.S. must respond to that attack, but subsequent comments minimized the initial sense of urgency. Oil prices definitely bounced higher on the news, but bonds/rates were able to hold their ground without forcing mortgage lenders to raise rates in the afternoon. Tomorrow brings the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is the earlier of the two official government inflation reports on consumer-level prices. The market is already priced for the median economic forecast, as always. If the actual numbers come in much higher or lower than those forecasts, it could cause volatility for rates in either direction (i.e. higher inflation = higher rates and vice versa). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06082026 Mon, 08 Jun 2026 20:33:00 GMT 6a272a22a5293e5761747797 Matthew Graham The average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate rose 0.08% last Friday after the jobs report came in much stronger than expected. Today added another 0.02% of upward movement. Today's level of 6.68% is the 3rd highest of the past 9 months. Unlike Friday, there were no big-ticket economic reports driving volatility in rate markets. The only arguable cause and effect was seen earlier in the morning surrounding war-related headlines. These actually helped rates start the day lower than they otherwise would have. As the week continues, investors will remain tuned in to war-related developments as well as an important inflation report on Wednesday morning (the Consumer Price Index or "CPI").  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06052026 Fri, 05 Jun 2026 18:29:00 GMT 6a2337fedd4904e35ba017f6 Matthew Graham Over the past three months, mortgage rate movement has been driven primarily by developments in the Iran war. It's not that war, itself, is a consideration, but rather the implications for fuel prices and inflation. Bonds care deeply about inflation and interest rates are based directly on bonds. When inflation isn't raging (or at the risk of raging), rates/bonds spend most of their time thinking about the economy. Lately, the data has been even-keeled enough that it hasn't had enough of an impact to override the war's inflation-related volatility, but today was an exception. The jobs report not only crushed expectations, but it revised the past 2 reports sharply higher as well. The net effect is that the labor market looks more like it's finding its footing (possibly even accelerating) and less like it is still in the downtrend that characterized the post-covid normalization.  If all that was confusing, here's the simple version. More people got jobs than expected and the market didn't like it because it removes any argument in favor of the Fed cutting rates. Fed rates don't equal mortgage rates, but Fed rate expectations for the future cause mortgage rate movement in the present (and Treasury movement, and stock market movement, etc.).  On a bright note, even after today's rout, the average lender remains under the highs seen on May 19th. The Iran war is still the most important input for rates, and a confirmed peace deal would still provide relief.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06042026 Thu, 04 Jun 2026 19:13:00 GMT 6a21d16af413a6d55c9799c2 Matthew Graham After hitting long-term highs on May 19th, mortgage rates dropped somewhat quickly by May 26th. Ever since then, they've been moving back and forth in a very narrow range. Today's movement happened to be the good kind with the average lender cutting top-tier 30yr fixed rates by 0.03%. As always, keep in mind that mortgages are most commonly offered in 0.125% increments. When our daily rate index changes by only 0.03%, it's because we are also measuring the underlying costs associated with any given rate and extrapolating the relative impact on interest rates. To use a crude example, let's consider two different hypothetical rate quote options yesterday and today. Yesterday 6.625% at a cost of $12 upfront 6.50% at a cost of $24 upfront Today 6.625% at a cost of $9 upfront 6.50% at a cost of $21 upfront Now pretend you only have $15 to spend for closing costs. You still can't afford to buy your rate down to 6.5%, and you'll still be choosing the 6.625% quote. But while the interest rate portion of your quote didn't change, the actual interest cost improved.  Our index captures and expresses these improvements in a single number.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06032026 Wed, 03 Jun 2026 19:03:00 GMT 6a207cf7416cd8eabd9eb433 Matthew Graham Imagine being stuck at home watching TV for 3 months and only being able to stream one show. That's been the case for the bond market (which dictates interest rates) since the beginning of March. The show in question involves watching war-related headlines and reacting in roughly the same manner as oil prices. Today's episode was more interesting than yesterday's. Key details included reports of Iranian missile strikes on various U.S. and allied targets. In general, rates have improved on news that increases the odds of a peace deal. Unsurprisingly, today's headlines (technically, yesterday night, but reflected in today's rate movement) did the opposite. Thanks to headline fatigue and desensitization, the rate market has been responding with less volatility over the past few weeks. As such, today's increase was fairly modest in the big picture but nonetheless leaves rates near their highest levels in more than 9 months. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06022026 Tue, 02 Jun 2026 19:59:00 GMT 6a1f3b2eab2ed9370ce5d461 Matthew Graham It was an uneventful day for the bond market and, thus, mortgage rates. Unlike the average trading day of late, there were no conspicuous war-related headlines making for shocks to oil prices. Since the start of the war, interest rates have had a strong correlation with oil prices due to inflation implications. That correlation was present today, but oil moved lower and higher well inside yesterday's range.  Top tier 30yr fixed rates fell from 6.60 to 6.57% for the average lender. This is very close to the lowest level in more than 2 weeks (6.56% seen last Friday).  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06012026 Mon, 01 Jun 2026 19:33:00 GMT 6a1ddfbf8119a15a08dc2a38 Matthew Graham Following last week's relatively strong move to the lowest levels since May 14th, mortgage rates bounced slightly higher to start the news week. The move followed a clear shift in the Iran war news cycle with morning headlines citing Iranian officials saying the peace negotiation were effectively tabled as long as hostilities remained between Israel and Lebanon. As a refresher, the Iran war is bad for rates primarily due to the actual and implied impact on inflation due to higher fuel costs. Bonds dictate rates and bonds hate inflation. There was an immediate and moderately sharp reaction in both oil prices and bonds right when this morning's news came out. Fortunately, the damage was fairly mild for mortgage rates with the average lender moving up 0.04% to 6.60% for a top tier 30yr fixed scenario. This is still 0.10% lower than the most recent high of 6.70% seen on May 19th. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05292026 Fri, 29 May 2026 17:34:00 GMT 6a19d3161b1e08268fb58a8b Matthew Graham While there are still a few hours left in the trading day, it's a near certainty that this week will end with mortgage rates at meaningfully lower levels compared to last Friday. Today is only adding modestly to that trend, but that makes it the 8th straight business day where rates have either held steady or moved lower. On that note, it's possibly worth considering that these sorts of winning streaks have definite life spans. We've certainly seen stretches of more than 10 business days without any upward movement in rates, but they're very rare. Even then, if the streak were to end on Monday or Tuesday, it may only be a temporary blip before more improvement. The bigger-picture issue remains the state of the Iran war. If it officially ends, rates likely have more room to improve. If hostilities re-escalate, rates could move back up into the recently higher range. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates