http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mortgage-rates Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07222026 Wed, 22 Jul 2026 19:47:00 GMT 6a61201eac093d4fc47ee373 Matthew Graham We have bad news and slightly less bad news. Starting with the latter, today's mortgage rates are only marginally higher than they were yesterday with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate up 0.02%. The bad news is that this takes our rate index to 6.77%--the highest level since July 28th, 2025.  Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market and bonds remain under pressure from a renewed surge in fuel prices. Specifically, higher fuel prices and additional uncertainty about the Iran war increase inflation expectations, and it's inflation that is the actual thorn in the bond market's side. Last week's inflation reports definitely offered some solace, but the bond market has progressively come to terms with the fact that last week's data was for the month of June (the best month for lower fuel prices since the start of the Iran war). July has been the polar opposite with gas futures quickly jumping back up to their highest levels of the year as of this morning. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07212026 Tue, 21 Jul 2026 19:29:00 GMT 6a5fcaa56e4a96a069f7ba5b Matthew Graham In late July, 2025, 30yr fixed rates embarked on an excellent adventure, moving down from 6.75% on July 31st to 5.99% by late February, 2026. Since then, things haven't been great thanks to war-related fuel price drama and stronger econ data (the supreme court ruling on tariffs didn't help either, because it increased Treasury issuance implications). Regardless of motivations, the net effect was a return to 6.75% on May 19th, 2026. Momentum has been fairly sideways since then, with the 6.75% level being revisited last Monday and now again today.  For those who want to keep the analysis simple, fuel prices do a good enough job explaining the move. In fact, August gasoline futures also just hit their May 19th highs this week--perfectly aligning with the round trip in rates. For those who want a bit more precision, we can also consider earnings season in the stock market which has created trading patterns among money managers that have pulled money out of the bond market over the past 2 days (bond selling = higher rates, all else equal). [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07202026 Mon, 20 Jul 2026 19:10:00 GMT 6a5e73a5802f0deca290b9ba Matthew Graham Last week ended on a promising note with Friday's rates falling just barely below the previous Friday's levels. This was a relief after the top-tier 30yr fixed rate matched 11-month highs for the average lender earlier in the week. Unfortunately, rates are starting the new week by heading back toward those highs. Our 30yr fixed rate index is up from 6.63% on Friday to 6.71% today. Many lenders raised rates in the middle of the day in response to weakness in the bond market. In general, that weakness is underpinned by renewed fighting in Iran (or more specifically, the effect of that fighting on fuel prices). [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07172026 Fri, 17 Jul 2026 18:41:00 GMT 6a5a78415b3a51804297df5b Matthew Graham The good news is that mortgage rates ended the day at their lowest levels of the week. That's welcome news after Monday's rates matched the highest seen since July 2025. Today's improvement came courtesy of weakness in the stock market, which is not necessarily a common or reliable source of inspiration for rates these days. But a majority of this week's drop is tied to back-to-back inflation reports coming in much lower than expected.  The bad news goes back to the long-term highs seen on Monday. In a short-term context, we've definitely seen solid improvement since then. In the bigger picture, however, this week's lows are still pretty close to the longer-term highs. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07162026 Thu, 16 Jul 2026 19:27:00 GMT 6a5932584d543ca5e637ad2d Matthew Graham While some news stories suggest that rates are the highest in 11 months today, that's not quite true. The highest rates of the year were seen on July 13th and May 19th when our 30yr fixed index hit 6.75%. The index was at 6.68% today, up from 6.64% yesterday. Any news regarding "highest rates since August 2025" is almost certainly citing Freddie Mac's weekly rate index which takes a 5 day trailing average rate through Wednesday and reports it on Thursday.  As for the reason for today's increase, there really isn't a satisfying scapegoat. The strongest case to be made is that bond yields (highly correlated with mortgage rates) topped out at the same time as fuel price futures.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07152026 Wed, 15 Jul 2026 18:40:00 GMT 6a57d5dc1f3c57458fbe387d Matthew Graham Mortgage rates moved lower again today following another lower-than-expected reading on an inflation report. Yesterday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) had a bigger impact on the underlying bond market, but today's Producer Price Index (PPI) wasn't far behind. Additionally, bonds did a better job of holding onto the improvement into the afternoon hours. This allowed mortgage lenders to drop rates even more than they did yesterday (0.06% today versus 0.05% yesterday). This takes the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.64% which is the lowest in just over a week. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07142026 Tue, 14 Jul 2026 19:17:00 GMT 6a568ca7330e6d0b75f90f03 Matthew Graham Our daily 30yr fixed rate index hit 6.75% yesterday. This matched the high from May 19th and is the highest level since late July 29, 2025. The key contributor to the recent spike has been the uptick in fuel prices in July combined with the fact that rates never made it any lower than 6.52% over the past 2 months. In other words, we were already in a high range and the uptick in fuel prices simply gave rates a push. Heading into today, we knew there was potential volatility associated with 2 events: Fed Chair Warsh's congressional testimony and the monthly release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)--a key inflation report.  The Warsh testimony had very little impact, but CPI was a different story. It showed inflation coming in much lower than expected in June. Lower inflation is generally good for rates. But the bond market is well aware that July could end up being a different story, thus limiting the exuberance of today's rate recovery with the rate index dropping only 0.05% to 6.70%.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07132026 Mon, 13 Jul 2026 20:12:00 GMT 6a554977823122ae4d1e9903 Matthew Graham Interest rates are based on bonds. Because the bonds underlying the average mortgage are fixed rate, inflation is the enemy. Imagine you're an investor fronting the money for a fixed-rate mortgage. You know your schedule of payments from day one. Let's say the payment is $5 or enough to buy a dozen eggs.  Now let's say inflation raises the price of those eggs to $7. You're still only receiving $5 because you invested in a fixed-rate loan. Because of this dynamic, when inflation fears increase, investors demand higher rates of return. We're dealing with two inflation threats right now: one is specific and one is general. The specific threat is that of elevated fuel prices stemming from the Iran war. As the fighting picked back up in July, so have rates. Today's war headlines were just the latest addition to the growing problem. The general threat is a broad array of other prices in the marketplace that aren't directly impacted by fuel or tariffs. Fed governor Waller spoke about this additional inflation today and said that if it was high enough according to this week's inflation data (tomorrow and Wednesday) that the Fed could consider hiking rates as soon as this month. So on the one hand, rates were already under pressure from the steady increase in fuel prices in recent days. Waller's comments added additional pressure.  The result is a top-tier, 30yr fixed rate that has returned to 6.75% for the average lender. This matches the high seen on May 19th, and you'd have to go back more than 11 months to see anything higher. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07102026 Fri, 10 Jul 2026 18:39:00 GMT 6a513cf43328a6a014ab1b15 Matthew Graham Rates are based on bonds and bonds have been taking cues from oil prices this week. Oil was flat overnight, bringing bonds along for the sideways ride. As such, the average mortgage lender began the day almost perfectly in line with yesterday's latest levels.  All that having been said, bonds experienced some of their own weakness in the afternoon, independent from oil prices (which continued sideways to slightly lower). Some mortgage lenders may choose to raise rates a bit before the end of businesses.  Those who don't will instead have to adjust for this market movement on Monday morning (assuming bonds don't change much by then). [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07092026 Thu, 09 Jul 2026 19:39:00 GMT 6a4ffa44af2a6d39a8f1386b Matthew Graham Mortgage rates were rapidly approaching 10-month highs as of yesterday afternoon. They managed a friendly bounce today, but it was fairly small with the average lender dropping 0.03% to 6.5% for a top-tier 30yr fixed scenario. One reason for caution is that the rate improvement looks to be dependent on oil price volatility after this week's resurgence in U.S./Iran tensions. Oil finally moved lower today. In general, lower oil prices imply lower inflation pressure, and lower rates. This isn't always the case, but there are times (like this week and many of the weeks since the start of the Iran war) where oil prices and rates are clearly correlated.  In the bigger picture, rates are drifting sideways in a narrow range near 10-month highs as they wait for more concrete inspiration.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates