http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mortgage-rates Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04092026 Thu, 09 Apr 2026 19:25:00 GMT 69d7ffba236f973dbdab5974 Matthew Graham Many borrowers will see no difference between yesterday and today's mortgage rate quotes. The average lender moved just a hair lower. Once again, the rate market is responding to war-related headlines and their impact on oil prices. Rates don't always care what oil prices are doing, but at present, there's more correlation than normal due to the inflation implications from a protracted conflict. Inflation is the true concern for bonds/rates when it comes to oil. Today's headlines involved various de-escalation anecdotes, mainly centering on Israel and Lebanon. Prior to those headlines, rates were set to match yesterday's levels. Afterward, the average lender was 0.02% lower for a top tier 30yr fixed rate. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04082026 Wed, 08 Apr 2026 19:27:00 GMT 69d6b2440f11bcec23e3fcda Matthew Graham It's a fluid situation in financial markets on Wednesday. The 2-week ceasefire in the Iran war caused a big reaction last night, but the benefit to the bond market (bonds dictate rates) has been increasingly wiped out during domestic hours.  If we measure the reversal versus yesterday's closing levels at 5pm ET, the reversal is almost complete. But bonds were already rallying in the afternoon due to expectations for the official ceasefire news. All that to say, we're still in noticeably better shape than we were mid-day yesterday, but the overall improvement is smaller than most borrowers would expect. In fact, the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is just barely at the low end of April's range at 6.40% vs the previous low of 6.41% on April 2nd. Earlier today, it was as low as 6.38%, but mortgage lenders made mid-day changes in response to bond market deterioration.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04072026 Tue, 07 Apr 2026 19:14:00 GMT 69d55a4dea3f6b419f5a7e43 Matthew Graham In stark contrast to the entire month of March, April's mortgage rate volatility has been downright boring. To put this in context, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate rose a substantial 0.65% by March 27th. In the first five business days of April, they've held inside a range of just 0.04%. Today did nothing to expand that range although it did leave rates microscopically higher versus yesterday. The Iran war continues to be the dominant source of inspiration for the financial markets, including the bond market that underlies interest rates. Given that tonight brings a deadline for a potentially major escalation in the war, there's a risk of volatility heading into tomorrow. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04062026 Mon, 06 Apr 2026 19:11:00 GMT 69d407da10613c3ee1692b12 Matthew Graham It was an uneventful day for mortgage rates with the average lender close enough to Friday's levels that borrowers would not see much of a difference between the two days. The bond market (which underlies and dictates rate movement) was still in quasi-holiday mode as most overseas markets were closed for holidays. Financial markets (including bonds) continue taking cues from major developments in the Iran war, but today ended up being more about waiting for those events based on Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen The Strait of Hormuz or face major escalation. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04022026 Thu, 02 Apr 2026 19:12:00 GMT 69cec536aa4e003cc6836374 Matthew Graham On any given Thursday, there's a decent enough chance that the average mortgage rate headline will be unintentionally misleading. At issue is media reliance on the longstanding weekly mortgage rate surveys. If news stories are going to cite this data, that's fine, but it's critical to understand the methodology. Whether it's MBA (reported yesterday) or Freddie Mac (reported today), the weekly surveys have an inherent reporting lag--that is, they are published at least a day after data collection ends. In addition, they represent an average of 5 business days.  This means that the weekly mortgage rate would be reported as 6.2% if the first 4 days were 6.0% and the 5th day jumped to 7%.  This is most frustrating for consumers when the present moment's rates are higher than the weekly average. Thankfully, today's case is the opposite. The most recent long-term rate high occurred on March 27th, and we've moved noticeably lower since then. Today didn't add much to that move, but it nonetheless brought the average lender to the lowest levels since March 18th. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04012026 Wed, 01 Apr 2026 19:14:00 GMT 69cd7036bd172ebcf86502f6 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates were little-changed on Wednesday, despite the release of several economic reports and another deluge of war-related headlines. In the slightly bigger picture, the market is trading with some sense of hope of a finite timeline for the war. Today, that meant a moderate drop in oil prices and bond yields (aka "rates"). Bonds struggled to maintain the improvement after this morning's economic reports which were broadly stronger than expected. In general, stronger econ data suggests higher rates, all else equal. In addition to stronger employment and retail sales reports, a key manufacturing report showed much higher inflation--also something that pushes rates higher. All of the above having been said, there really wasn't a major reaction to any of this morning's scheduled events/reports. If anything, bonds and rates have been roughly sideways in a narrower-than-average range. The average mortgage lender was lower than yesterday by 0.02% on a top-tier 30yr fixed rate.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-03312026 Tue, 31 Mar 2026 19:21:00 GMT 69cc2366085695562cbde017 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates moved lower for the second straight day as markets responded to potential de-escalation in the Iran war.  Rates are based on bonds and bonds improved overnight as The President said the war could end even if the Strait of Hormuz was not yet reopened. Additional improvement followed during domestic hours based on headlines that suggested Iranian officials were "ready to end the war." The market reaction might have been bigger had those claims not been contingent on Iran wanting "certain guarantees."  They also came from Iran's President and not the Supreme Leader. Still, stocks, bonds, and oil prices all responded. The bond market response involved additional improvement. As bonds improve, rates move lower.  The net effect for mortgage rates was a move back below 6.50% for top-tier 30yr fixed rates at the average lender. This marks the best 2 days of improvement since the war began, but the caveat is that the larger movements are often seen after rates hit longer-term highs. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-03302026 Mon, 30 Mar 2026 19:24:00 GMT 69cacfbd7604fda7b381d3c9 Matthew Graham The bad news is that the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate remains over 6.5% after being under 6% just a month ago. The good news is that rates recovered nicely over the weekend.  By Friday afternoon, the average rate was 6.64%--the highest since August 2025--adding to a trend of rapid upward movement over the course of March. While there's no way to know if a bigger picture corner has been turned, it's a victory in the short term. Notably, the underlying bond market broke from its typical correlation with oil prices today. The latter has experienced severe volatility due to the Iran war, and bonds have been affected due to inflation implications. It's too soon to determine if that's happening for temporary reasons relating to the calendar more than underlying events and economic fundamentals. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-03272026 Fri, 27 Mar 2026 18:29:00 GMT 69c6cd8a8d4c3d47ca342303 Matthew Graham There were mixed blessings in the mortgage rate world today. The bad news is that today's rates are just a bit higher than yesterday's, resulting in another 8 month high. The good news is that things were looking quite a bit worse earlier in the morning. Mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day even though those rates are dictated by movement in the underlying bond market. If bonds move enough, lenders will change rates mid-day. Today was one of those days and, fortunately, the change was in a friendly direction.  Before the improvement, the average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate was roughly 6.7%, but afterward, only 6.64%. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-03262026 Thu, 26 Mar 2026 18:49:00 GMT 69c584c359125d15ba811cc0 Matthew Graham After a somewhat hopeful day on Wednesday, mortgage rates are back to their same old tricks on Thursday. The tricks in question involve following the broader market reaction to the Iran war which has caused significant and almost exclusive upward movement in interest rates for the entire month of March. Average 30yr fixed rates have been at or near the highest levels in 7-8 months over the past 4 days. Today easily took them to slightly higher levels as global financial markets lost ground. The move lines up symmetrically with lower stock prices and higher oil prices. Until there's meaningful and lasting de-escalation of the Iran war, the safest bet is for more volatility for interest rates. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates