http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mortgage-rates Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07022026 Thu, 02 Jul 2026 17:05:00 GMT 6a469b5cfb356d7231bfba06 Matthew Graham Today is a half day for financial markets, which is a typical feature of a federal holiday weekend. Because tomorrow is fully closed, the big jobs report (normally a Friday affair) was instead released this morning. It ended up helping rates move lower. The jobs report (officially "The Employment Situation") measures new jobs created (or lost) each month in addition to the unemployment rate. The job count was much weaker than expected and, although the unemployment rate technically dropped, it did so for the wrong reasons (fewer people considered themselves part of the workforce). In fact, if we adjust for labor force participation, unemployment actually moved higher. The jobs report is the most important economic data as far as bonds are concerned. And because bonds dictate rates, there's a clear connection to the mortgage world. Weaker jobs data = lower rates, all else equal. Today was no exception with MND's 30yr fixed rate index erasing most of yesterday's spike.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07012026 Wed, 01 Jul 2026 19:15:00 GMT 6a45698e484d55c8f061fe49 Matthew Graham In a real sense, today's rate update is more of an addendum to yesterday's rate update. Yesterday afternoon saw heavy, continued selling in the bond market amid a flood of trading associated with the end of the quarter. Because mortgage rates are directly based on the bond market, this resulted in multiple lenders raising rates late in the day (after yesterday's update).  Today has been much calmer by comparison with bonds holding fairly close to yesterday's latest levels after some early weakness. Even so, there was still some weakness for mortgage lenders to account for. From yesterday morning, the average lender is up 0.11% on a top tier 30yr fixed quote.   If we adjust yesterday afternoon to account for the late day reprices, today's rates are, instead, 0.05% higher. Either way, we're currently back in line with the highs from the beginning of last week, but still below the highs from early June or mid-May. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06302026 Tue, 30 Jun 2026 18:39:00 GMT 6a440ebfc30699d717875e68 Matthew Graham Starting last Thursday, mortgage rates have barely budged. In terms of our 30yr fixed index, the maximum day-over-day change has been 0.02% since then. The past 3 business days have seen rates either hold steady or move cautiously lower. Today's rates moved higher, but at just as slow a pace. The underlying bond market primarily took cues from trading motivations that didn't have anything to do with typical considerations like economic data and news headlines. As we discussed last week, some of the world's biggest investment accounts have been in the process of rebalancing their portfolios for the end of Q2. This was helpful for rates last week, but the opposite was true today. To a lesser extent, bonds lost some ground after this morning's job openings data for the month of May. It showed more job openings than the median forecast expected, which is generally bad for bonds/rates, but Thursday's jobs report for June is a more meaningful report with more power to cause volatility. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06292026 Mon, 29 Jun 2026 19:07:00 GMT 6a42c37548426d4ea2ea105e Matthew Graham Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest level since May 14th. Most of the recent drop happened last Wednesday, but each day since then has added a microscopic improvement. Today was no exception with the 30yr fixed rate index falling a mere 0.01%--the lowest increment we measure. The calendar of economic events was completely empty and consequential news headlines were just as scarce. This will change over the next 3 days on at least one front. Big-ticket econ data comes out on each of the next 3 mornings. Thursday's jobs report is typically the most important scheduled monthly data, but each day carries at least some risk for volatility. Why only 3 more days this week? Because Friday is closed for the Independence Day observance. And when the bond market is closed, mortgage lenders don't generate new rate sheets (and typically aren't open to accept new locks). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06262026 Fri, 26 Jun 2026 19:06:00 GMT 6a3ecee17f19115eae0e9257 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates officially hit their lowest level in more than a month yesterday with MND's 30yr fixed index falling to 6.53% from 6.55% on Wednesday. Today was completely unchanged at 6.53%, thus maintaining the lowest level since May 14th, 2026.  There weren't any dramatic developments behind the scenes in term of economic data or news headlines (not that we'd expect them when rates hold perfectly flat). This week's broader improvement can be attributed to buying demand in the bond market owing to large investors rebalancing their stock/bond portfolios before the end of the quarter. As the quarter officially ends early next week, new volatility could emerge. It could be further compounded by the more active slate of economic data culminating in Thursday's big jobs report--the biggest economic report on any given month. NOTE: the jobs report would normally be out on a Friday, but next Friday is the holiday observance for the 4th of July.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06252026 Thu, 25 Jun 2026 17:45:00 GMT 6a3d6aa68a4dd6d6cf58e804 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates had a great day yesterday, moving within 0.01% of the lowest levels in more than a month. They dropped just a bit more today and are now officially the lowest they've been since May 14th.  Today's improvement was more of an afterthought, but nonetheless helps legitimize yesterday's heavy lifting as something other than a freak coincidence. The only word of caution is that the last few weeks of any given quarter can see elevated volatility in a random pattern due to considerations in the trading world (mortgages are ultimately based on trading levels in the bond market). In terms of nuts and bolts, bonds got today's modest boost after PCE inflation data came in on target. This doesn't seem like something that should spark a reaction, but the "target" is merely a median forecast. Some traders may have been expecting hotter inflation and were thus willing to buy a few bonds when those fears didn't materialize.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06242026 Wed, 24 Jun 2026 18:52:00 GMT 6a3c291eb1321553efbc30ef Matthew Graham Rate momentum shifted noticeably on Wednesday. The underlying bond market saw heavy buying in pre-market trading--likely a result of large-scale quarter-end rebalancing among the largest money managers (i.e. adjusting balance of stocks vs bonds in investment portfolios). Excess demand for bonds = lower rates, all else equal. It also hasn't hurt that oil prices continue declining as bond demand has frequently benefited from the lower implied inflation. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell 0.10% to 6.55--just a hair above June 16th levels of 6.54%. Before that, you'd have to go back to May 14th to see anything lower.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06232026 Tue, 23 Jun 2026 19:31:00 GMT 6a3ae02eea71841b4ad94dc0 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates may be based directly on the bond market, but the two don't always move in perfect lock-step. Today was a good example of that. Bonds improved enough for rates to move modestly lower according to typical correlation. Instead, the average mortgage lender improved by the smallest possible amount that we register on our daily rate index. When this happens, it's often able to be explained by the timing of intraday volatility in the bond market and that's generally the case this time around.  Simply put, yesterday morning's best levels lined up with this morning's weakest levels even though the bulk of today's trading took place in moderately stronger territory. There was no major intraday volatility tied to any news headlines or economic reports. Tomorrow is also fairly quiet on the scheduled data front, but the calendar heats up a bit on Thursday morning.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06222026 Mon, 22 Jun 2026 19:57:00 GMT 6a3997f0832c678f20eba443 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates gave back the improvement seen last Thursday and broke above last Wednesday's levels to hit the highest mark since June 10th. This isn't a big range in the bigger picture, but it does leave rates near 10-month highs. The move is also a bit counterintuitive given developments in other markets and typical correlations. For instance, On almost any other recent trading day, if oil prices and European bond yields are both moving lower (they are), so are U.S. bond yields and rates.  The disconnect may be as simple as an ongoing reaction to last week's Fed announcement which confirmed that investors need to brace for a potentially higher rate path in the future and--at the very least--less transparency about how that rate path may evolve. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06182026 Thu, 18 Jun 2026 16:46:00 GMT 6a3423168e1136df3cd86966 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates spiked yesterday after the Fed announcement. The primary driver was the Fed's revised outlook for potential rate hikes later this year. Because the Fed Funds Rate governs ultra-short-term transactions (24hrs or less), it has the biggest impact on the shortest-term debt and a diminishing impact on longer term debt. While the typical mortgage may be ABLE to last for 30 years, in practice, the average mortgage length (due to refinances and sales) is a moving target assumed to be around 5 years. That's helping us today.  Shorter-term debt is still having some indigestion over Fed day, but longer-term debt has recovered more of yesterday's losses. Top tier 30yr fixed rates are about halfway back to yesterday's pre-Fed levels for the average mortgage lender and in the lower-middle of the range seen since mid-May. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates