Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis

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Victory For Rates; Hope For Housing Inventory?

Mortgage Rates Lowest in Nearly a Month

Another Tentatively Decent Day For Rates

Mortgage Rate Outlook May Be Improving

Who's Lying About The Housing Market?

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Forbearance Decline Largest in Six Months

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Property Taxes Outpacing Inflation; Forbearances Decline; Victory For Rates

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Another Week, Another Holding Pattern For Rates (Until Wednesday)

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by Matthew Graham on April 14 2008, 1:53 PM

Despite economic tumult, mortgage rates held a very tight range last week. So far this morning, the story is the same. We have lost a little ground from Friday and even from earlier this morning, but overall, the impact will not be huge. The economic...
Mortgage Rates Continuing To Hold Steady

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by Matthew Graham on April 09 2008, 2:34 PM

Despite rising stocks in the last week, Mortgage Backed Securities (the bonds that directly govern mortgage rates) have continued to trade steady into this week. We have not had any impactful news for the bond market this week. Or rather, any impactful...
Is Friday Our Lucky Day?

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by Matthew Graham on April 04 2008, 2:44 PM

Last Friday was great and now this Friday is shaping up to be even better. In the middle of the week, some economic news started a "buzz" on Wall Street that the recession might be dodged and the growth would be returning. Stocks rallied and a booming...
Slightly Improved Rates To Start The Week

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by Matthew Graham on March 31 2008, 8:00 PM

Friday ended strong with Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) , the money that mortgages turn into that is traded between big banks, improving right up through closing. Today, after some volatility, MBS have held on to those gains which has caused most lenders...
After a Tepid Yesterday, We're "On The Move" (with strings attached)

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by Matthew Graham on March 27 2008, 1:57 PM

Yesterday's prices for Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), the bonds that directly impact mortgage rates, did not vary by a significant margin in one direction or another. Today however brought a plethora of economic data for the markets to interpret. In...
After a Rough Day, Rates Should Improve a bit Today

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by Matthew Graham on March 25 2008, 2:05 PM

Yesterday's Home Sales figured beat expectations by a bit for the first time in a long time. The market rode that wave all the way to close which drew a lot of money out of the Mortgage Bond market, forcing interest rates up. It had seemed for a moment...
Mortgage Rates Up Sharply

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by Matthew Graham on March 24 2008, 2:56 PM

There were several items of rough news for the markets to digest today. Well, that's rough for Mortgage-Backed-Securities (which govern mortgage rates), but not necessarily rough for the broader market. As some analysts (and many of the firm's shareholders...
Another "Up" Day for Mortgages?

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by Matthew Graham on March 20 2008, 1:35 PM

"Up" refers to price in this case, specifically the price of Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the securities that directly govern mortgage rates. And "up" in price means "down" in rate. We have 30 minutes to go until important economic data...
After a wild Friday and an even wilder weekend, we're off to a good start

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by Matthew Graham on March 17 2008, 1:31 PM

Friday held many ups and downs for the Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) market, which have a direct effect on interest rates. Mostly this was a big "up" in the morning, followed by a big "down" that stabilized into the afternoon. All in all, no ground was...
More Good News For Rates

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by Matthew Graham on March 12 2008, 1:26 PM

After quite a bumpy couple of weeks, the mortgage market finally caught a break when Bernanke announced that the Fed would make 200 billion dollars available in a short term auction. Why is this good for rates? Because the participating dealer banks will...
After a Great Friday, What Does Monday Hold?

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by Matthew Graham on March 10 2008, 3:02 PM

Friday was a fantastic day for Mortgage Backed Securities, which are directly related to mortgage rates. The trading day ended on a high note indicating that there would be better rates released Monday morning barring some catastrophe. So far this morning...
Yesterday Bad, Today Good???

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by Matthew Graham on March 07 2008, 1:37 PM

Yesterday was quite a bad day for mortgage rates despite a weak stock market and a strong 10 year treasury. When stock prices are down, treasury yields are down, and mortgage yields (interest rates) go up, it's a sign of some problems. There were several...
Rates Inch Higher

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by Matthew Graham on March 06 2008, 4:44 PM

Economic data was mixed again this morning and even though certain reports exceeded expectations, numbers are weak overall. Even though the 10 year treasury is improving today, mortgage bonds are worsening. There is poor demand among buyers for bonds...
Rates Higher Again Today On Mixed Data

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by Matthew Graham on March 05 2008, 3:49 PM

Economic reports were mixed this morning with some showing weak employment figures and others showing a brief stabilization in the non-manufacturing sector. Whatever the case, the Mortgage Bond market apparently had farther to fall from yesterday's slide...
Inflation Keeps Rates on The Run

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by Matthew Graham on March 04 2008, 4:24 PM

I wish I had better news, but so far, "not so good." Even though all of the news and data continues to point toward weakening economies, which is normally good for interest rates, inflation looms large as mortgage rate's mortal enemy. Remember that Mortgage...

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