January 2021 - Mortgage Rate Watch

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Refinance Volume Ramps Down on Rising Rates; Mortgage Bonds Beat Treasuries, But No Big Bounce

Published: 3/3/2021

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Rates Rising at Fastest Pace in Months

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by Matthew Graham on January 11 2021, 5:41 PM

Mortgage rates are coming off a rough week-- the roughest , in fact, since June 2020 by some measures. That's the last time rates rose this quickly for market-driven reasons. There were a few instances of bigger moves in Aug/Sept as the new refinance...
Mortgage Rates Brace For Potential Impact

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by Matthew Graham on January 05 2021, 3:53 PM

Mortgage rates got off to a slow start yesterday. It was hard to object considering that left the average lender in line with record lows. But today was a bit different. While most lenders were little-changed at first, many ultimately raised rates during...
Rates Rising Quickly, But The Truly Scary Stuff is For Another Day And Another Reason

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by Matthew Graham on January 06 2021, 5:33 PM

Mortgage rates went to bed last night knowing they were at risk of a volatile day today. Georgia's senate race has been in focus for 2 months now because it had the chance to change the balance of power in congress. With both seats flipping from red to...
The Real Story Behind The Past 2 Weeks of Mortgage Rate Volatility

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by Matthew Graham on January 15 2021, 4:41 PM

It was easy to get lulled into complacency by the second half of 2020 when it came to mortgage rates. Even as other indicators said rates should be rising, they continued on a calm journey to multiple record lows. 2021 has been very different so far!...
Have We Seen The End of Record Low Rates?

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by Matthew Graham on January 08 2021, 3:43 PM

While it might not seem like the sort of thing mortgage rates should care about, the senate run-off election in Georgia was by far and away this week's most important event. This wasn't a surprise either. In fact, interest rates have been bracing for...
Mortgage Rates Continue Healing, But Remain Well Above Recent Lows

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by Matthew Graham on January 13 2021, 4:32 PM

Mortgage rates had another solid day today--this time without any of the early drama seen yesterday. If you're just getting caught up, the bond market (which drives day-to-day interest rate movement) has been selling off aggressively since the Jan 5th...
Mortgage Rates Find Some Support After an Ugly Start

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by Matthew Graham on January 12 2021, 4:22 PM

Mortgage rates were off to a very bad start this morning, but recovered a portion of what they lost by the end of the day. The specifics depend greatly on the lender in question. Sadly, few if any lenders are still able to offer the rates seen yesterday...
Why Mortgage Rates Should Care About Bond Market Warning

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by Matthew Graham on January 29 2021, 4:52 PM

After spiking in early January, interest rates returned to near-all-time-low levels by the middle of the week. By the end, however, the market began to flash a warning about more volatility ahead. The warning is fairly simple. It has to do with a pattern...
Mortgage Rates Almost Back to Early January Levels

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by Matthew Graham on January 21 2021, 3:36 PM

Mortgage rates made more progress today, but only after some drama in the morning. The bond market started the day in weaker territory and many mortgage lenders were offering higher rates as a result. As the day progressed, bonds improved and lenders...
How Long Can The Good Times Last For Housing and Rates?

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by Matthew Graham on January 22 2021, 4:23 PM

While it wasn't quite the biggest surprise of 2020, the strength of the housing market was one of the best. The just-released numbers for December keep the good times rolling. Leading the charge was December's Existing Home Sales report from the National...
Mortgage Rates Are Actually HIGHER Today and This Week

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by Matthew Graham on January 07 2021, 5:40 PM

Mortgage rates moved higher today, but only a modest pace compared to yesterday (read more about yesterday's rate rout HERE ). Over the past two days, the average rate quote for a top tier conventional 30yr fixed loan has risen by an eighth of a percent...
Mortgage Rates Down Only Slightly Despite Bond Market Rally

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by Matthew Graham on January 25 2021, 4:24 PM

What's a bond market rally and why should mortgage rates care? There are all kinds of bonds. US Treasuries would be the quintessential example, but there are also bonds specific to the mortgage market. These are what groups of loans ultimately become...
Mortgage Rates Off To Slow Start, Which is Great

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by Matthew Graham on January 04 2021, 4:30 PM

Mortgage rates are off to a slow start in the new year, and that's a good thing. An absence of movement means the average lender continues offering rates that are at or near record lows. For top tier, conventional 30yr fixed loans, that's around 2.75...
Mortgage Rates Making Steady Progress Over The Past Week

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by Matthew Graham on January 20 2021, 4:25 PM

Mortgage rates are off to a decent start this week with the average lender offering slightly better terms compared to last Friday. The progress actually began earlier last week. On Tuesday morning, rates were at their highest levels in exactly 2 months...
Mortgage Rates Start Strong But End Higher

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by Matthew Graham on January 28 2021, 4:10 PM

Mortgage rates have had a great couple of weeks after jumping to multi-month highs at the beginning of January. By yesterday, they'd made it almost all the way back to their best recent levels. The same was true this morning, but things have changed since...

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