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  • Thu, Jul 12 2018
  • 4:34 PM » Hotels: Occupancy Rate decreased Year-over-Year
    Published Thu, Jul 12 2018 4:34 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 7 July The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 1-7 July 2018, according to data from STR. In comparison with the week of 2-8 July 2017, the industry recorded the following: • Occupancy: -3.1% to 63.5% • Average daily rate (ADR): +1.1% to US$123.59 • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): -2.0% to US$78.47 STR analysts note that occupancy declines were mostly a result of the Fourth of July holiday , especially early in the week. emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2018, dash light blue is 2017 (record year due to hurricanes), blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels). The occupancy rate, to date, is slightly ahead of the record year in 2017.  Note: 2017 finished strong due to the impact of the hurricanes. On a seasonal basis, the occupancy rate will be solid through the summer travel season. Data Source: STR, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:52 PM » Fed's Powell says economy is in 'good place' but tariffs could change that
    Published Thu, Jul 12 2018 3:52 PM by CNBC
    Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said he believes the economy is "in a good place," but that an escalation in tariffs between the United States and trading partners could affect that success.
  • 2:50 PM » Fed's escape from crisis holdings could hit dead end
    Published Thu, Jul 12 2018 2:50 PM by Reuters
    Not long ago the Federal Reserve expected to quietly shed nearly half of its $4.5-trillion portfolio by around 2022, leaving little trace of the extraordinary steps it took to face down the financial crisis. But an unexpected market kink could force the Fed to scrap the plan two or three years early and permanently leave it holding $1 trillion more than it wanted.
  • 2:42 PM » High Rollers Keep Rolling: Luxury Home Sales and Prices Soar
    Published Thu, Jul 12 2018 2:42 PM by www.realtor.com
    Many Americans are struggling to close the deal on a starter home, but the luxury-home market is going strong, according to a realtor.com analysis. The post High Rollers Keep Rolling: Luxury Home Sales and Prices Soar appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:10 PM » Universal basic income would cost the US up to $3.8 trillion per year — Bridgewater estimate
    Published Thu, Jul 12 2018 1:10 PM by CNBC
    Hedge fund manager Ray Dalio is looking at whether universal basic income can help solve wealth inequality.
  • 12:00 PM » Key Measures Show Inflation increased YoY in June
    Published Thu, Jul 12 2018 12:00 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.8% annualized rate) in June. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% (2.7% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report. Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.1% (1.6% annualized rate) in June. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.2% (2.0% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis. Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for June here .  Motor fuel was up 7% annualized in June. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.8%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.2%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 2.3%. Core PCE is for May and increased 1.96% year-over-year. On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 2.8% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 2.7% annualized, and core CPI was at 1.6% annualized. Using these measures, inflation increased year-over-year in June.  Overall, these measures are above the Fed's 2% target (Core PCE is close).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:38 AM » The housing shortage may be turning, warning of a price bubble
    Published Thu, Jul 12 2018 11:38 AM by CNBC
    The supply of homes for sale in the second quarter of 2018, the all-important spring market, rose at three times the rate of the same period last year, according to Trulia, a real estate listing and research company.
  • 11:20 AM » Charting the Trade-War Fallout Through Commodities From Soy to Copper
    Published Thu, Jul 12 2018 11:20 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Charting the Trade-War Fallout Through Commodities From Soy to Copper Bloomberg As the U.S.-China trade war heats up, the underbelly of commodity markets offers a slew of signals on the evolving consumer and industrial landscape. Bone up on the shifting sands in global commerce with these key metrics, as chosen by raw-material ...
  • 10:20 AM » Beijing urges U.S. firms in China to lobby Washington over trade war
    Published Thu, Jul 12 2018 10:20 AM by Reuters
    Beijing urges U.S. firms in China to lobby Washington over trade war
  • 9:21 AM » Fed official: 'We could end up getting behind if we don't keep moving things up'
    Published Thu, Jul 12 2018 9:21 AM by CNBC
    Members of the Federal Reserve are telegraphing two more rate hikes this year.
  • 9:02 AM » BLS: CPI increased 0.1% in June, Core CPI increased 0.2%
    Published Thu, Jul 12 2018 9:02 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS : The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment . The indexes for shelter, gasoline, and food all rose to lead to the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index. The food index increased 0.2 percent in June, with the indexes for food at home and food away from home both rising 0.2 percent. Despite a 0.5-percent increase in the gasoline index, the energy index declined 0.3 percent, with the indexes for electricity and natural gas both falling. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in June . The all items index rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ending June; this was the largest 12-month increase since the period ending February 2012. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.3 percent for the 12 months ending June . emphasis added I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI. This was close to the consensus forecast.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:40 AM » Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 214,000
    Published Thu, Jul 12 2018 8:40 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The DOL reported : In the week ending July 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000 , a decrease of 18,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 231,000 to 232,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,000, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 224,500 to 224,750. emphasis added The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 223,000. This was lower than the consensus forecast. The low level of claims suggest few layoffs.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:08 AM » Goodbye inverted yield curve? Fed looks for alternative signals to guide policy
    Published Thu, Jul 12 2018 8:08 AM by Reuters
    Federal Reserve officials are scouring new niches of the financial markets to find signals accurate enough to warn the central bank when it is time to stop hiking interest rates before they risk tipping the economy into a recession.
  • 8:07 AM » High-Yield Borrowers Play Catch Up After Pre-Summer Window Opens
    Published Thu, Jul 12 2018 8:07 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg High-Yield Borrowers Play Catch Up After Pre-Summer Window Opens Bloomberg High-yield bond sales in Europe are picking up ahead of the summer holidays in August, following a rocky second quarter that soured funding prospects for corporate borrowers. Narrowing credit spreads have helped open the issuance window for six ...
  • 8:07 AM » US Yield Curve Will Invert in Mid-2019, Morgan Stanley Says
    Published Thu, Jul 12 2018 8:07 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg US Yield Curve Will Invert in Mid-2019, Morgan Stanley Says Bloomberg The Federal Reserve next March will probably map out an end to the contraction in its balance sheet, helping support longer-dated bond yields, which will drop below those on shorter-dated notes by the middle of 2019, according to Morgan Stanley ...
  • 8:07 AM » Americans Burdened by Increasing Housing Costs, Slow Wage Gains
    Published Thu, Jul 12 2018 8:07 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Americans Burdened by Increasing Housing Costs, Slow Wage Gains Bloomberg $500 more, each and every month. That's the additional cost of a mortgage payment if you bought a median-priced home in San Jose, California, in the first quarter of 2018 compared to late last year. The mortgage payment would be about $4,600 compared ...
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