1:12 PM » Cyprus May Be a Turning Point in the Eurozone Crisis
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One way or another, the situation is Cyprus likely marks a major turning point in the eurozone crisis. It could be the beginning of true disaster for the zone, eventually leading to a series of sovereign debt defaults and possible exits from the euro area. It could also be the point at which we learn that the eurozone has done enough to shore itself up and regain market confidence, so that a disaster in Cyprus does not spread, now or later, to other vulnerable countries. Yet, of course, the result could also be anticlimactic and not a turning point after all. Europe retains the ability to miraculously muddle through, neither truly fixing the Cyprus problem nor allowing it to turn catastrophic, living to fight another day. It is extraordinarily hard to predict what happens next in Cyprus and the eurozone, which is why it is so puzzling that markets are not more scared. They appear to have crisis fatigue, producing a complacency that combines a tinge of cynicism about the long-term resolution of anything with a belief that the zone can keep dancing between the bullets, in the short run anyway. There is the possibility that Russia, which has many interests in Cyprus, will provide the necessary financial aid, in lieu of the eurozone. However, Russia is far too canny for this to be a likely result, unless the maneuvering of elites behind the scenes at the Kremlin happens to align exactly as needed by the Cypriots. Overall, adopting Cyprus from its unhappy eurozone parents could be a very expensive folly. More likely, Putin strings the Cypriots along without making a binding offer of the necessary support. There is a higher probability that the eurozone finds a politically acceptable way to increase its support and to bridge the gap with the Cypriots. However, the two sides just spent the last nine months trying to do this and were stopped by insuperable political and policy obstacles. These appear to have gotten worse, if anything, although one never knows how a crisis atmosphere...