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  • Mon, Sep 19 2011
  • 2:42 PM » Remarks by FDIC Acting Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg to the American Banker Regulatory Symposium
    Published Mon, Sep 19 2011 2:42 PM by www.fdic.gov
    Remarks by FDIC Acting Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg to the American Banker Regulatory Symposium in Washington, D.C. delivered September 19, 2011are available at the following link: FDIC speeches, testimony, and other information are available on the Internet at , by subscription electronically (go to ) and may also be obtained through the FDIC's Public Information Center (877-275-3342 or 703-562-2200).
  • 1:55 PM » Ryan: Still Waiting for Credible Plan from President Obama
    Published Mon, Sep 19 2011 1:55 PM by budget.house.gov
    WASHINGTON – In response to the President’s latest proposal to raise taxes on job creators, House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan issued the following statement: “The President’s partisan speech and misguided proposals are disappointing, but not surprising. Having overseen an unprecedented surge in government spending – from his failed stimulus law, to the creation of new trillion-dollar health entitlements, to double-digit percentage increases in the budgets of many federal agencies – the President has finally admitted that he plans to send the bill for Washington’s reckless spending straight to American businesses and families. A $1.6 trillion tax hike on job creators is never a good idea. But taking more money from private savers and investors, and giving it to the same government bureaucrats who brought us the Solyndra debacle, is an even worse idea – especially in a weak economy. "Unfortunately, none of the President’s proposals this year – from his to his , to his recommendations today – offers a credible plan to lift our crushing burden of debt while restoring economic growth. Instead of renewed prosperity, the President has offered us a plan for shared scarcity. The nation deserves better.” For the latest from House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan: To learn more:
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: budget.house.gov
  • 12:21 PM » NAHB Builder Confidence index declines slightly in September
    Published Mon, Sep 19 2011 12:21 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reports the housing market index (HMI) declined in September to 14 from 15 in August. Any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes dipped by a single point to 14 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for September, released today. The index has now held between 13 and 16 for six consecutive months. ... "The fact that the HMI continues to hover within such a narrow, low range reflects builders' awareness that many consumers are simply unwilling or unable to move forward with a home purchase in today's uncertain economic climate," added NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "While some bright spots are beginning to emerge in about a dozen select metro areas, the broader picture remains fairly bleak due to the weak economy and job market." ... Each of the HMI's three component indexes recorded declines in September. The component gauging current sales conditions slipped one point to 14, while the components gauging sales expectations in the next six months and traffic of prospective buyers each declined two points, to 17 and 11, respectively. The Midwest was the only region to post a gain in its HMI score for September, edging up one point to 11. Meanwhile, the Northeast and South each posted two-point declines to 15 and the West posted a three-point decline to 12. Click on graph for larger image in new window. This graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the September release for the HMI and the July data for starts (August housing starts will be released tomorrow). Both confidence and housing starts have been moving sideways at a very depressed level for several years.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:05 PM » Will the Fed Stimulate, Target, Get Explicit, Twist, or Swerve?
    Published Mon, Sep 19 2011 12:05 PM by The Atlantic
    Whatever option it chooses, the market is watching and can be counted on to react Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke must yearn for a time when he can reside over a boring, uneventful monetary policy meeting. Unfortunately for the nation's top central banker, he won't get that sort of meeting this week. With unemployment stuck above 9% and job growth struggling, many want to see more aggressive action from the Fed. And the market expects it. What action might the monetary policy committee take this week? More Stimulus What would Wall Street really love to see? All of these stimulus-without-stimulus tactics might help nudge the economy in the right direction. But some additional asset purchases would be the Fed's most aggressive option. An additional round of quantitative easing would have the most dramatic effect on interest rates. But here's the problem: not everyone on the Fed's committee is convinced that additional stimulus is a good idea. as being on the right course. Others worry that inflation is already at the Fed's target rate -- and additional stimulus could send it too high. So this is probably not the most likely action the Fed would take at this time. An Inflation Target We have heard Bernanke and others suggest that the Fed could . Both hawks and doves like this idea, but each group likes it for totally different reasons. Hawks think a target would force the Fed to concentrate on price stability and put it ahead of stimulus. Doves, however, realize that the target actually provides the Fed even more flexibility to affect a weak economy: the target is meant to assure investors that even if inflation is elevated for a short period, eventually the Fed will move it lower to maintain its target. If you saw additional stimulus, then you might also see a target. It would serve as a way for the Fed to say, "Yes, we're taking some potentially inflationary measures, but don't worry about prices because here's where we intend...
  • 10:00 AM » Residential Remodeling Index at new high in July
    Published Mon, Sep 19 2011 10:00 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The BuildFax Residential Remodeling Index was at 130.4 in July, up from 129.5 in June. This is based on the number of properties pulling residential construction permits in a given month. From : The Residential BuildFax Remodeling Index rose 24% year-over-year--and for the twenty-first straight month--in July to 130.4, the highest number in the index to date. Residential remodels in July were up month-over-month almost a single point (.6%) from the June value of 129.5, and up year-over-year 25.6 points (24.5%) from the July 2010 value of 104.7. ... In July, the West (3.4 points; 3%) and Midwest (4.9 points; 5%) all had month-over-month gains, while the South (3.3 points; 3%) and Northeast (2.7 points; 3.4%) saw a decline. ... "As millions of Americans believe that they will not be able to secure a new home due to a variety of factors including tight credit, limited buyers and challenging job prospects, they are more and more turning to renovating and remodeling their current properties, sending remodeling activity to record levels," said Joe Emison, Vice President of Research and Development at BuildFax. Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. This is the highest level for the index (started in 2004) - even above the levels from 2004 through 2006 during the home equity ("home ATM") withdrawal boom. Note: Permits are not adjusted by value, so this doesn't mean there is more money being spent, just more permit activity. Also some smaller remodeling projects are done without permits and the index will miss that activity. Since there is a strong seasonal pattern for remodeling, the second graph shows the year-over-year change from the same month of the previous year. The remodeling index is up 24.5% from July 2010. Even though new home construction is still moving sideways, it appears that two other components of residential investment will increase in 2011: multi-family construction and home improvement. Data Source: BuildFax, Courtesy...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:53 AM » REALTORS® And Designations
    Published Mon, Sep 19 2011 8:53 AM by National Association of Realtors
    Many REALTORS® have designations in the field to help them stand apart from their colleagues. There are 17 designations in the field of real estate and 36 percent of members hold at least one designation. The most common designation is the Graduate REALTOR Institute (GRI) – 21 percent of members hold this designation. The Accredited Buyer Representative (ABR) and Certified Residential Specialist (CRS) are also common designations. Income differs among those who have a designation and those who do not. Those with at least one designation had a median gross annual income in 2010 of $49,300. Those who did not have a designation had a median gross annual income in 2010 of $26,900. For more information on the Member Profile, .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: National Association of Realtors
  • 8:53 AM » Q2 Flow of Funds: Household Real Estate assets off $6.6 trillion from peak
    Published Mon, Sep 19 2011 8:53 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Federal Reserve released the Q2 2011 Flow of Funds report today: . The Fed estimated that the value of household real estate fell $65 billion to $16.18 trillion in Q2 2011, from $16.25 trillion in Q1 2011. The value of household real estate has fallen $6.6 trillion from the peak - and is still falling in 2011. Household net worth peaked at $65.9 trillion in Q2 2007, and then net worth fell to $49.5 trillion in Q1 2009 (a loss of $16 trillion). Household net worth was at $58.5 trillion in Q2 2011 (up $8.9 trillion from the trough, but before the recent stock sell-off). Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. This is the Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP. This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations. This ratio was relatively stable for almost 50 years, and then we saw the stock market and housing bubbles. This graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952. Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008. In Q2 2011, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 38.6% - about the same as in Q1. Note: about have no mortgage debt as of April 2010. So the approximately 52+ million households with mortgages have far less than 38.6% equity - and . The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP. Mortgage debt declined by $47 billion in Q2. Mortgage debt has now declined by $678 billion from the peak. Studies suggest most of the decline in debt has been because of foreclosures (or short sales), but some of the decline is from homeowners paying down debt (sometimes so they can refinance at better rates). Assets prices, as a percent of GDP, have fallen significantly and are only slightly above historical levels. However household mortgage debt, as a percent of GDP, is still historically...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:52 AM » 10 Steps To Prevent the Next Bank Crisis
    Published Mon, Sep 19 2011 8:52 AM by www.ritholtz.com
    Look, this is really simple stuff : As I discussed yesterday on , we can easily prevent the next credit crisis caused by a TBTF banks (and the rogue traders they employ), we need to take 10 EZ steps: 1. Depression era Glass Steagall legislation needs to be restored (it was repealed in 1998). Separating FDIC deposit banks with much riskier Wall Street iBanks and speculators is imperative. 2. The Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 needs to be repealed, (Those opposed to this repeal should be deported). 3. Rating agencies need to have their official SEC charters revoked. If they want to sell ratings, they need to do so in the marketplace, not by regulatory mandate. 4. The SEC issued “ Bear Stearns exemption” — replacing the 1975 Net Capitalization Rule ’s 12 to 1 leverage limit to with essentially unlimited leverage — needs to be legislatively revoked, and the old rule officially reinstated. 5. The Depository Bank Reserve Rules that have whittled away need to be restored to decades ago levels. Basel 3 does not go far enough. And Federally Pre-emption of States anti-predatory lending laws must be revoked. 6. The Federal Reserve must focus on Employment and Inflation — not backstopping speculators. 7. Nonbank mortgage underwriters (i.e., Subprime lenders) need to be subjected to same comprehensive federal supervision as other banks. Traditional credit standards need to be applied. 8. Mortgage underwriting standards must revert to pre-2000 standards, including verifying income, payment history, and credit scores, Loan to value (LTV). And Automated underwriting (AU) systems need to be revamped or removed. 9. “Innovative” mortgage products — 2/28 ARMs, I/O s, Neg Ams — need to have stronger restrictions on them 10. Clawbacks of corporate bonuses AND stock sales paid for transactions that eventually turn out to be false, temporary, or losing positions (think subprime or CDO underwriting) must be the law of the land. This includes sales people, trading desks and executives...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.ritholtz.com
  • 8:52 AM » Is It Possible to Build a Home for $1,000?
    Published Mon, Sep 19 2011 8:52 AM by WSJ
    Ying chee Chui This house, with the roof removed, was designed by Ying chee Chui as a part of MIT’s “1K House†project. In some cities — New York, for example — many buyers think nothing of paying more than $1,000 per square foot for a home. But how about making one for $1,000? That’s the challenge architects at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology tried to tackle. They recently unveiled the first prototype from the “” project, an effort to produce low-cost homes in poor areas and regions struck by natural disaster. While the tiny price tag wasn’t possible, the mission remains noble. “There is a huge proportion of the world’s population that has pressing housing needs,†says Tony Ciochetti, a professor with the Cambridge, Mass., school’s . “Can you build affordable, sustainable shelter for such a large population?” The prototype, dubbed the Pinwheel House, was designed by Ying chee Chui, a 2011 graduate of MIT’s Department of Architecture. Measuring 800 square feet, it was constructed in Mianyang, part of China’s Sichuan province. The house boasts a modular layout with hollow brick walls with steel bars for reinforcement and wooden box beams. It is designed to withstand a magnitude 8.0 earthquake. Ying chee Chui The interior of the low-cost house designed by Ying chee Chui. This prototype turned out to be more costly — $5,925. (The price does not include land.) But that didn’t deter MIT. It is now at work on a second project, albeit one with a bigger price tag. The school is working to produce a series of home designs, intended for earthquake-and-tsunami-ravaged Japan, that would cost about $10,000 to build. MIT’s project shows that plenty of hurdles remain before any home can be manufactured for $1,000. “If it were easy, somebody would have done it,” Mr. Ciochetti points out. Follow Dawn on Twitter
  • 8:52 AM » Study: Lightly Regulated Lenders Made Riskiest Mortgages
    Published Mon, Sep 19 2011 8:52 AM by WSJ
    Getty Images A from economists at the International Monetary Fund finds that counties that had higher shares of mortgages sold by lightly regulated independent lenders also had higher foreclosure rates, a finding that suggests lax regulation of mortgage lending may have fueled the housing bubble. The paper uses econometric analyses to show how these non-bank, independent originators contributed to riskier lending at a disproportionate rate relative to more-heavily regulated banks. “The market share of these independents as of 2005 is a strong predictor of the increase in foreclosure rates between 2005 and 2007,” write IMF economists Jihad C. Dagher and Ning Fu. The findings, of course, don’t absolve banks. Instead, they argue that mortgage brokers and non-bank originators, such as Ameriquest, New Century, and WMC Mortgage, “contributed disproportionately” to the credit bubble. (Consumer advocates have also criticized bank regulators for failing to do anything to stem a deterioration in mortgage lending and for preempting more aggressive efforts by states to head off risky practices.) The research suggests that deregulation played a significant role in fueling the mortgage boom and bust. It takes data on foreclosures, home prices, and the market share of independent lenders to make a series of findings: Faster growth: During the 2003 to 2005 period, when the mortgage bubble inflated rapidly, credit growth by independent lenders was around 23% higher than that of banks. Independents tended to gain market share most in areas where they had less of a presence in the past. Weaker standards: Because independents were less tightly regulated and supervised than bank counterparts, they faced fewer lending constraints and gained market share “by originating increasingly risky loans,” the authors write. “The expansion of independent lenders came at the cost of fast deteriorating lending standards.” Expansion in bubble zones: These non-bank originators “expanded relatively faster...
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