http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Mortgage News Daily https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-07202026 Mon, 20 Jul 2026 19:53:58 GMT 6a5e8b60a6791958c554f048 Matthew Graham New Week. Same Old Story While we certainly CAN put short term market movement under a microscope and entertain various potential sources of motivation, it's just as good to take a few giant steps back and observe the bigger picture trend. When we do, we see a decisively weaker trend since October 2025 with additional volatility and selling pressure after the start of the Iran war. Unsurprisingly resurgence of hostilities has put upward pressure on both fuel prices and bond yields. This is definitely one of those "under the microscope" market movers at the start of the week. There were also some tradeflow considerations regardless of news headlines. This was seen in the form of both stocks and bonds noticeably shifting just after 9:30am. Until that point, stocks were improving and bonds were doing a decent job holding sideways. Afterward, both lost ground. Market Movement Recap 09:17 AM modestly weaker overnight. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 2.1bps at 4.567 11:41 AM MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 4.7bps at 4.593 02:49 PM MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 5.2bps at 4.597 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07202026 Mon, 20 Jul 2026 19:10:00 GMT 6a5e73a5802f0deca290b9ba Matthew Graham Last week ended on a promising note with Friday's rates falling just barely below the previous Friday's levels. This was a relief after the top-tier 30yr fixed rate matched 11-month highs for the average lender earlier in the week. Unfortunately, rates are starting the new week by heading back toward those highs. Our 30yr fixed rate index is up from 6.63% on Friday to 6.71% today. Many lenders raised rates in the middle of the day in response to weakness in the bond market. In general, that weakness is underpinned by renewed fighting in Iran (or more specifically, the effect of that fighting on fuel prices). [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-07202026 Mon, 20 Jul 2026 15:50:49 GMT 6a5e15fc7e13284cfcfd9bb4 Rob Chrisman Dang. I don’t know why I put my entire retirement plan into SpaceX stock… it has lost $1 trillion in book value since its post-IPO high. In 2026 Fannie’s stock price is down 44 percent, and Freddie’s stock price is down 46 percent. Did you sink your 401(k) into either, when doing a “re-IPO” was the talk of the Trump Administration? (Speaking of Fannie, rumors are flying that Fannie Lender Letter LL-2026-04 on AI will be followed by a more prescriptive framework.) One would hope that the industry has input into Freddie and Fannie’s activities. Mortgage leaders have limited influence over many of the forces dominating today's housing debate: They cannot directly control interest rates, housing inventory, inflation, or the pace of legislative reform. But they can direct how effectively their organizations prepare for technological disruption. The lenders that spend the coming years waiting for external solutions to affordability challenges may find themselves reacting to change rather than shaping it. By contrast, those that invest now in AI-ready operating models, governance structures, and workforce capabilities will be positioned to create lasting competitive advantages regardless of the broader economic environment. Housing policy will remain important, but the defining strategic decisions of the next decade are increasingly likely to occur not in Washington, but within the institutions responsible for financing homeownership itself. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are sponsored by JazzX, the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. From application to underwriting, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. Today’s has an interview with the Institutional Risk Analyst’s Chris Whalen on the fallout from the Two Harbors servicing deal, further consolidation in the mortgage industry, and dominos to fall as companies race to grab market share.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-07202026 Mon, 20 Jul 2026 14:12:03 GMT 6a5e3bb0a6791958c5545314 Matthew Graham You've seen the "good vibes only" t-shirt perhaps? Bond traders left theirs at home this morning. That's unfortunate as there isn't much beyond vibes to set the tone this week. Over the weekend, bad vibes came courtesy of another round of escalation in the Iran war. Additionally, the safe-haven buying that helped bonds on Friday has reversed course somewhat as stocks find their footing. At 7:30am, news of a proposed 10-day ceasefire caused yields and fuel prices to drop quickly but not excessively.  30 minutes later, the move was reversed after Houthis declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. 10yr yields are starting out several bps higher and MBS are down about an eighth. On the bright side, there's still quite a bit of room for yields to find a supportive ceiling between current levels and recent highs. And if we instead use the gloomier approach via the 9 month uptrend in yields, there's even more room to rally back toward the lower end of this trend channel. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-07172026 Fri, 17 Jul 2026 20:35:46 GMT 6a5aa040a6791958c54fa690 Matthew Graham Roughly Unchanged After Gradual Weakness Bonds ended the day roughly unchanged despite this morning's stronger start. With the S&P falling back to the lows of the day, we can't really blame asset allocation trading between stocks and bonds. It's easier to blame a mid-day surge in fuel prices (especially after 11am) which may have been related to headlines regarding U.S. missiles striking an oil tanker docked at Kharg Island. All told, it was still a victorious week with yields ending up slightly lower than last Friday. The week ahead is marked by limited data and the pre-FOMC blackout period. Bonds will remain tuned into oil price volatility and potentially to any big swings in stocks. Econ Data / Events Building Permits (Jun) 1.367M vs 1.40M f'cast, 1.41M prev Housing starts number mm (Jun) 1.427M vs 1.31M f'cast, 1.177M prev Import prices mm (Jun) 0.3% vs -0.7% f'cast, 1.9% prev Market Movement Recap 08:46 AM Modestly stronger start despite higher oil/gas. 10yr down 1.9bps at 4.536 and MBS up 1 tick (.03). 12:47 PM Near weakest levels. MBS unchanged and 10yr down 1bp at 4.546 04:12 PM At the weakest levels. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 0.4bps at 4.551 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07172026 Fri, 17 Jul 2026 18:41:00 GMT 6a5a78415b3a51804297df5b Matthew Graham The good news is that mortgage rates ended the day at their lowest levels of the week. That's welcome news after Monday's rates matched the highest seen since July 2025. Today's improvement came courtesy of weakness in the stock market, which is not necessarily a common or reliable source of inspiration for rates these days. But a majority of this week's drop is tied to back-to-back inflation reports coming in much lower than expected.  The bad news goes back to the long-term highs seen on Monday. In a short-term context, we've definitely seen solid improvement since then. In the bigger picture, however, this week's lows are still pretty close to the longer-term highs. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/07172026-housing-starts-building-permits-new-residenti Fri, 17 Jul 2026 17:59:00 GMT 6a5a7009f27dbf5c826ed045 Matthew Graham Residential construction rebounded in June as housing starts and completions recovered from May's unusually weak levels, though building permits continued to trend lower. The latest Census Bureau data suggests that while builders remain cautious about future projects, construction activity itself regained momentum after last month's sharp pullback. Privately owned housing starts jumped 19.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.427 million , reversing much of May's decline and coming in 3.5% above the June 2025 pace. The headline increase was driven almost entirely by multifamily construction, with starts for buildings containing five units or more surging to 513k . Meanwhile, single-family starts were essentially unchanged, slipping just 0.2% to 895k . Building permits, which provide a look at future construction activity, moved in the opposite direction. Total permits declined 3.0% to an annual rate of 1.367 million , down 2.3% from a year earlier. Single-family authorizations fell 2.4% to 871k , while multifamily permits were issued at a rate of 445k . The sharp rebound in total housing starts also reinforces the notion that May's exceptionally weak reading was largely the result of unusually volatile multifamily data rather than a broad deterioration in residential construction. Single-family activity remained remarkably steady over the two-month period, while multifamily starts swung from one of their weakest readings in years to one of their strongest. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/07172026-pending-home-sales Fri, 17 Jul 2026 17:51:00 GMT 6a5a6d39f27dbf5c826ed043 Matthew Graham Pending home sales declined in June as elevated mortgage rates and record-high home prices continued to weigh on buyer demand. The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), which tracks signed contracts on existing homes, fell 5.4% from May and was down 0.3% compared with a year earlier. The latest report suggests affordability remains a significant hurdle for prospective buyers. While employment gains continue to support household finances, higher borrowing costs and elevated home prices have kept many buyers, particularly first-time purchasers, on the sidelines. “The highest mortgage rates in nearly a year and the record-high national median home price together are contributing to a tepid housing market that is especially difficult for first-time homebuyers,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He added that continued job growth could help support housing demand, while noting that pending sales should be viewed as an indicator of future closings rather than a direct measure of completed transactions due to contract contingencies and fallout rates. Contract activity weakened across every major region during the month. The Northeast posted the smallest monthly decline at 3.0% , while the Midwest recorded the largest drop at 8.9% . The South fell 4.1% and the West declined 4.7% . Compared with a year earlier, pending sales increased 2.2% in the Northeast and 0.3% in the Midwest, while the South and West posted declines of 0.9% and 1.1% , respectively. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/07172026-builder-confidence-nahb-hmi Fri, 17 Jul 2026 17:40:00 GMT 6a5a6afdf27dbf5c826ed041 Matthew Graham Builder sentiment weakened further in July as affordability challenges and ongoing economic uncertainty continued to weigh on the market for new single-family homes. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) slipped two points to 34 , marking the 15th consecutive month the index has remained below 40--the longest such stretch since 2012. The latest reading reflects persistent headwinds for the industry, with elevated mortgage rates, rising material costs, expensive land and ongoing labor shortages continuing to limit both builder confidence and buyer demand. All three major components of the index moved lower in July. Current sales conditions declined one point to 37 , while sales expectations over the next six months fell two points to 43 . Traffic of prospective buyers also dropped two points to 23 , indicating many prospective purchasers remain on the sidelines. “Many potential buyers remain on the sidelines as they wait for lower mortgage rates, more certainty on inflation and a clearer economic outlook,” said NAHB Chairman Bill Owens. He added that the recently enacted 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act includes provisions intended to address land-use, zoning, regulatory and financing challenges, though those reforms will take time to produce results. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said affordability remains the industry's biggest obstacle, citing elevated mortgage rates, costly land, rising material prices and persistent skilled labor shortages. While he called the new housing legislation a positive step toward expanding supply and lowering housing costs, he noted that additional policy changes at the state and local levels will be needed to meaningfully improve conditions. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/07172026-mortgage-applications-mba Fri, 17 Jul 2026 17:31:00 GMT 6a5a687cf27dbf5c826ed03f Matthew Graham Mortgage application volume declined again last week as higher borrowing costs weighed on home purchase demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.7% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 10, even as refinance activity posted a modest rebound. Purchase applications fell 7% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 2% lower than the same week one year ago, marking a pullback after purchase demand had outpaced year-ago levels in recent weeks. Refinance activity moved in the opposite direction, with the Refinance Index increasing 4% from the prior week. Despite mortgage rates climbing higher, refinance applications remained 7% above year-ago levels, supported by stronger FHA and VA refinance activity. “Mortgage applications declined as the 30-year fixed rate increased to 6.65 percent, the highest level since August 2025. Purchase applications were down over the week and dipped below last year’s pace in the week following the July 4th holiday,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Despite higher mortgage rates, refinance applications increased, led by FHA and VA refinance applications rising 9 and 10 percent, respectively.” The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 43.2% from 40.6%, while the adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share declined to 7.1% from 7.8%. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full