http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Mortgage News Daily https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-04302026 Thu, 30 Apr 2026 20:29:12 GMT 69f3ca14a6791958c5a90516 Matthew Graham Bonds Recover With Oil, But Not Completely Ever since bottoming out together on the morning of April 17th, bond yields and oil prices have been moving higher together.  The early overnight trading hours may have witnessed a bit of a "blow-off top" (fancy words that basically mean markets reversed course simply because they'd gone too high, too fast). In other words, there wasn't an overt reason for the reversal in the news cycle. That said, there arguably wasn't sufficient justification for the last leg of the rate/oil spike seen yesterday. Econ data didn't necessarily drive any of the movement, but with PCE falling right in line with expectations, it didn't get in the way. Perhaps more impressive is that bonds didn't see any selling pressure from the lowest jobless claims reading in more than 3 years. Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (Apr)/18 1,785K vs 1820K f'cast, 1821K prev Core PCE (m/m) (Mar) 0.3% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.4% prev Core PCE (y/y) (Mar) 3.2% vs 3.2% f'cast, 3% prev Core PCE Prices QoQQ1 4.3% vs 4.1% f'cast, 2.7% prev Employment costsQ1 0.9% vs 0.8% f'cast, 0.7% prev GDPQ1 2.0% vs 2.3% f'cast, 0.5% prev Jobless Claims (Apr)/25 189K vs 215K f'cast, 214K prev PCE (y/y) (Mar) 3.5% vs 3.5% f'cast, 2.8% prev PCE prices (m/m) (Mar) 0.7% vs 0.7% f'cast, 0.4% prev Market Movement Recap 08:31 AM slightly stronger overnight and no immediate reaction to boatload of econ data. MBS up 7 ticks and 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.402 12:05 PM Fairly flat since the open. MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 4bps at 4.39 03:21 PM Near best levels. MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 4.8bps at 4.383 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04302026 Thu, 30 Apr 2026 19:09:00 GMT 69f3ab14024e37c1a8f75d7a Matthew Graham Mortgage rates spiked on Wednesday (yesterday) after reports suggested a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As has been the case for most of the past 2 months, interest rate movement was clearly correlated with oil prices. Now today, both are moving back in the other direction though not for reasons that are as obvious as yesterday's. The rally began just after 2am ET with both oil prices and bond yields dropping in concert. Lower bond yields mean lower rates, all else equal. After hitting 6.50% for top-tier 30yr fixed rates, the average lender is back down to 6.45--roughly where they were yesterday morning before a round of mid-day increases in the afternoon. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/04302026-housing-starts-building-permits-new-residenti Thu, 30 Apr 2026 18:11:00 GMT 69f39ccd08414d39135e4ea6 Matthew Graham Residential construction activity moved in opposite directions in March, as housing starts posted a strong rebound while building permits fell sharply from the previous month’s elevated pace. The latest Census Bureau report suggests builders accelerated new projects even as future pipeline activity softened. Privately owned housing starts rose 10.8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.502 million , up from February’s revised 1.356 million pace. Starts were also 10.8% higher than March 2025 levels. Single-family starts increased 9.7% to 1.032 million, while multifamily starts (buildings with five units or more) came in at 446k. On the permitting side, activity pulled back notably. Total building permits fell 10.8% to an annual rate of 1.372 million , down from February’s revised 1.538 million pace and 7.4% below year-ago levels. Single-family permits declined 3.8% to 895k, while multifamily authorizations dropped to 427k. In general, there's no point in reading too much into month-to-month volatility in this data series. What's important is that there's been a decent, supportive floor of construction activity seen in 2024-2025 and a general upward trend since October, 2025. Housing completions were essentially flat for the month, edging up 0.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.366 million . Despite the monthly stability, completions were 12.8% lower than the same time last year. Single-family completions fell 4.8% to 896k, while multifamily completions reached 452k. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/04302026-mortgage-applications-mba Thu, 30 Apr 2026 17:46:00 GMT 69f39aa308414d39135e4ea4 Matthew Graham Mortgage applications eased modestly last week, giving back a small portion of the prior week’s sharp gains as rates moved slightly higher. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 1.6% decrease on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending April 24. The pullback was driven by softer refinance demand, while purchase activity continued to improve. The Refinance Index fell 4% from the previous week but remained 51% higher than the same week one year ago. Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1% week over week and stood 21% above last year’s level. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased slightly to 6.37% from 6.35%, contributing to the decline in refinance activity. Even so, steady inventory gains and resilient demand appear to be supporting buyers during the spring market. MBA’s Mike Fratantoni said, " Mortgage rates increased slightly last week, with the 30-year fixed rate rising to 6.37 percent... More notably, purchase application activity was more than 20 percent above last year’s pace... potential homebuyers certainly appear to be moving forward this spring and taking advantage of the more favorable inventory conditions in most parts of the country. " Application composition shifted further away from refinancing, with refinance share declining to 42.5% from 44.2% the prior week. ARM share increased to 8.3% . FHA share fell to 17.2% , while VA share held steady at 15.0% and USDA share remained unchanged at 0.5% . Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/04302026-case-shiller-fhfa-home-prices-prices-apprecia Thu, 30 Apr 2026 17:15:00 GMT 69f39347fa3a8a2ac01e4c0a Matthew Graham Home price appreciation remained subdued in early 2026, according to the latest data from both FHFA and S&P Cotality Case-Shiller. The two reports show prices still edging higher nationally, but with momentum slowing further as affordability constraints and elevated mortgage rates continue to weigh on the market. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index was unchanged in February from the prior month, following an upwardly revised 0.2% gain in January . On an annual basis, prices were up 1.7% versus February 2025, slightly below the pace seen in prior months and consistent with a cooling appreciation trend. Regional FHFA data showed continued divergence across the country. Monthly price changes ranged from -1.1% in the Mountain division to +0.6% in the South Atlantic division. Over the past year, appreciation ranged from -0.7% in the Mountain region to +4.2% in the Middle Atlantic, highlighting a growing split between softer Western markets and firmer Northeastern areas. The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted a 0.7% year-over-year gain in February, down from 0.8% previously and marking another step lower in annual appreciation. The 10-City Composite rose 1.5% , while the 20-City Composite increased 0.9% , both slowing from January readings. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-04302026 Thu, 30 Apr 2026 15:47:35 GMT 69f34f515f4a80e0351eec3e Rob Chrisman As an industry, we tend to care about interest rates, especially mortgage rates. (A recent STRATMOR piece is titled, “Mortgage Rates Are Not Random.”) But there is a group of people much less sensitive to rates and represent competition to lenders. All-cash home purchases have remained structurally elevated since early 2023, averaging 28 percent of existing home sales, well above the post-2015 norm of 23 percent, and consistently exceeding that benchmark since late 2022. Affluent households, relocating homeowners cashing out of higher-cost markets, investors, and increasingly ordinary savers primarily make up this group, underscoring how accumulated equity and liquidity are reshaping housing demand. While cash activity is far less prevalent in new home sales (largely due to higher price points) both segments have still seen above-trend cash buying in recent years. For housing finance markets, the implications are significant: elevated cash transactions effectively bypass mortgage origination, reducing the flow of loans into the Agency mortgage-backed securities market. Using current run rates, this translates into roughly 1.2 million annual home purchases (or about $385 billion in potential mortgage issuance) being removed from the system, tightening supply, and reinforcing technical support for mortgage spreads even as overall housing activity remains constrained. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Figure, which is shaking up the lending world with their five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Figure has hundreds of partners in the Banking, Credit Union, Home Improvement, and of course, IMB space embedding their technology. Today’s has an interview with CI&T’s Tim Von Kaenel on building, integrating, and optimizing technology to drive differentiation, modernize operations, and navigate an increasingly complex and fast-evolving digital landscape. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-04302026 Thu, 30 Apr 2026 13:40:28 GMT 69f369fca6791958c5a842d9 Matthew Graham From an analytical standpoint, it's hard to offer new and interesting insights when the order of any given day is simply to observe broad war-related sentiment via oil prices.  From there, if bonds are diverging, we have a few things to discuss, but if bond yields are following, the case is closed. Today's case is mostly closed as the correlation is mostly there. The only minor divergence arrived after the boatload of AM econ data. It wasn't much of a move, but it was in a friendly direction despite sharply lower jobless claims. Perhaps the market was modestly relieved that year over year PCE "only" rose to 3.5%?  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-04292026 Wed, 29 Apr 2026 20:42:08 GMT 69f27c18a6791958c5a68e4a Matthew Graham Today's Weakness Mostly War-Related With Small Boost From Fed Because today was was a "Fed day" and because bonds hit their weakest levels of the day after the Fed announcement, we may look back on the selling and blame the Fed. In actuality, the Fed was only a small piece of the puzzle. Specifically, 10yr yields had already moved up from 4.34+ to 4.40 before the Fed announcement. At the 3pm CME close, there was only 1 more basis point of selling (4.41). The overnight/morning weakness was already covered in the morning commentary, but as a reminder, it had to do with the potential for a longer-term blockade of The Strait of Hormuz. There were no major issues with the Fed, but the market didn't like the fact that 3 dissenting voters preferred to abandon the vague reference to future rate cuts via the "additional adjustments" verbiage.  Econ Data / Events MBA Purchase Index (Apr)/24 177.7 vs -- f'cast, 175.6 prev MBA Refi Index (Apr)/24 977.9 vs -- f'cast, 1023.1 prev Mortgage (Mar)ket Index (Apr)/24 298.5 vs -- f'cast, 303.3 prev Building Permits (Mar) 1.372M vs 1.39M f'cast, 1.538M prev Building Permits (Feb) 1.538M vs -- f'cast, 1.386M prev Core CapEx (Mar) 3.3% vs 0.5% f'cast, 0.6% prev Durable goods (Mar) 0.8% vs 0.5% f'cast, -1.4% prev Housing starts number mm (Mar) 1.502M vs 1.40M f'cast, -- prev Market Movement Recap 08:31 AM weaker overnight and modest additional selling after 830am data.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2bps at 4.369 10:07 AM MBS down 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr up 5.3bps at 4.402 12:01 PM Some volatility in response to news that the US is considering renewed strikes in Iran, but losses have been erased since then. MBS still down about 30bps and 10yr up 5bps at 4.398 02:16 PM Slightly weaker after Fed announcement. MBS down 14 ticks (.44) and 10yr up 5.8bps at 4.406 02:53 PM Weakest levels. MBS down nearly half a point. 10yr up 7bps at 4.42 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04292026 Wed, 29 Apr 2026 20:09:00 GMT 69f268a0fb59458ec025b750 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates jumped higher today at the fastest pace in weeks to the highest levels since March 30th. There were two key motivations for the increase, but one accounted for a vast majority of the damage. News came out overnight that spoke to the possibility of a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets took this seriously because it involved conversations with oil executives to assess the the impact of a prolonged blockade on domestic energy markets and fuel prices. Bond yields (which correlate with rates) and oil prices lurched higher again this morning after a White House official reiterated/corroborated the overnight news. The supporting actor in today's rate drama was the Fed announcement. While the Fed didn't hike rates, 3 voters voiced their opposition to the wording of the Fed's statement because it tacitly implies the Fed is more inclined to cut rates vs hike them in the near future. Those 3 voters would prefer to indicate that rates could go either way depending on inflation and the economy. The market took this as a minor negative indication for rates. Measuring in terms of 10-year Treasury yields, more than 80% of today's rate spike was in place before the Fed announcement came out. The average mortgage lender is back to 6.50% for top tier 30-year fixed scenarios, up from 6.38% yesterday. Most lenders made mid-day adjustments to even higher rates as the underlying bond market continued to suffer into the afternoon.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-04292026 Wed, 29 Apr 2026 18:00:51 GMT 69f2556ca6791958c5a63c1a Matthew Graham Available Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The implications of developments in Developments in the Middle East for are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the U.S. economy are uncertain. economic outlook. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full