http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Mortgage News Daily https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-10302026 Fri, 30 Oct 2026 19:16:09 GMT 6ae4fb3c9f50a0a93e0df7c3 Matthew Graham Bonds Almost Able to Break Even Thanks to Tech Turmoil Tech stocks embarked on a wild ride starting with earnings releases after the bell yesterday. While today's recap title mentions "breaking even," if we were to measure today's bond market movement versus yesterday's 3pm ET levels, 10yr yields are more than 5bps lower. In other words, those earnings releases created a big late-day rally yesterday and today became largely about trying to hold onto the gains. By mid-day, bonds were a bit weaker with 10yr yields approaching 4.96%. Around 1240pm, news broke regarding Anthropic being unlikely to receive an "investment grade" rating after its IPO. This pushed the NASDAQ even deeper into negative territory and helped bonds make it most of the way back to "unchanged" by 3pm.  Econ Data / Events Employment Cost Index 0.8 vs 0.8 f'cast, 0.9 prev Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/10302026-new-home-sales Fri, 30 Oct 2026 18:53:00 GMT 6ae4e886c00ac0be8dda5360 Matthew Graham New home sales lost almost no ground in September, effectively reinforcing the healthy rebound seen in August's report.  The Census Bureau's New Residential Construction report clocked sales at an annual pace of 676k, down only 0.6% month over month. As seen in the chart below, the broader trend has been sideways for nearly 3 years now. The number of new houses for sale slipped to 476,000 , down 1.0% from August and 2.3% from a year earlier. With inventory edging lower alongside sales, the implied supply eased to 8.4 months , compared with 8.5 months in August and 8.2 months last September. Prices rebounded from August's decline. The median sales price rose to $400,400 , up 3.9% for the month but still 3.9% below September 2025. The average sales price increased 0.4% to $472,800 , leaving it 6.7% below its year-ago level. As a reminder, these figures are broadly based and don't factor in location, lot size, and other key pricing components Sales (MoM): -0.6% Sales (YoY): -5.3% Inventory (MoM): -1.0% Inventory (YoY): -2.3% Months' Supply: 8.4 (down from 8.5 prior month; 8.2 YoY) Median Price: $400,400 Average Price: $472,800 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/10302026-case-shiller-fhfa-home-prices-prices-apprecia Fri, 30 Oct 2026 18:49:00 GMT 6ae4e7392c363b35e44e9478 Matthew Graham Home price appreciation picked up again in August (as reported this week), but the improvement was minimal.  The FHFA House Price Index rose 0.3% from July to August, bringing annual appreciation to 2.4% . July's previously reported monthly gain was revised down from 0.3% to 0.2%. Regional results remained uneven, with annual appreciation ranging from 0.5% in the Mountain division to 4.4% in the East North Central division. Case-Shiller's national index rose 2.1% year over year, up from 1.9% in July. The 10-City Composite gained 3.6% , while the 20-City Composite rose 2.7% . Even with the recent improvement, the inflation-adjusted trend remains negative. Consumer prices rose 3.4% annually in August, well above the 2.1% increase in national home prices. That gap has persisted for more than a year, offering some relief on a relative affordability basis even as elevated home prices and mortgage rates continue to challenge buyers. Case-Shiller's metro-level results continued to show a sharp divide between markets. Chicago led the 20 tracked cities for the sixth consecutive month , with prices up 6.7% year over year. New York followed at 6.2%, and Cleveland gained 4.3%. Seattle remained at the other end of the spectrum, with prices down 2.0% annually, followed by Las Vegas at -1.3% and Denver at -0.8%. FHFA House Price Index Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/10302026-mortgage-applications-mba Fri, 30 Oct 2026 18:33:00 GMT 6ae4e5ec2c363b35e44e9476 Matthew Graham Mortgage applications finally rebounded as mortgage rates fell for a second straight week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 3.4% increase in total application volume for the week ending October 23. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 7.37% from 7.41%, its lowest level in three weeks. Both purchase and refinance applications moved higher, but just barely, and well below levels from last year. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 4% for the week, and still 18% below year-ago levels . Refinances increased 3%, offering only a modest rebound from a market still 61% below its level a year earlier. “The decline in rates gave borrowers some relief, with applications rebounding slightly, particularly conventional applications,” said MBA's Joel Kan. He noted that mortgage rates remain more than a percentage point above year-ago levels, while most homeowners have little incentive to refinance. Adjustable-rate mortgages accounted for 11.3% of applications , the highest share in more than a year, as borrowers sought lower monthly payments. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 7.37% (from 7.41%) | Points: 0.76 (from 0.75) 15yr Fixed: 6.70% (from 6.73%) | Points: 0.85 (from 0.73) Jumbo 30yr: 7.28% (from 7.33%) | Points: 0.64 (from 0.60) FHA: 7.12% (from 7.13%) | Points: 1.07 (from 1.15) 5/1 ARM: 6.41% (from 6.46%) | Points: 1.20 (from 1.11) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-10302026 Fri, 30 Oct 2026 18:24:00 GMT 6ae4e2c4c00ac0be8dda535d Matthew Graham The rate market continues taking cues from turmoil in the tech sector. That resulted in the lowest rates in more than a month today as tech stocks slide to their lowest levels since July.  The biggest shift for the underlying bond market (bonds dictate rates) came just before 1pm on reports that Anthropic's post IPO credit rating was not likely to be "investment grade." That matters because it means Anthropic would face higher borrowing costs.  Given the company's key role in driving the AI buildout, there are two implications that helped bonds/rates today. First, higher borrowing costs mean lower potential debt issuance, and that issuance has been a key factor in pushing interest rates higher in 2026. Second, any headwinds for major AI companies suggest potential economic headwinds given the central role AI plays in the current economic growth cycle. In general, lower/slower economic growth is good for rates/bonds, all else equal.  The average mortgage lender added modestly to yesterday's larger improvement, resulting in a top-tier 30yr fixed rate just under 7.30%. This is the lowest level since September 23rd, 2026. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-10302026 Fri, 30 Oct 2026 15:41:12 GMT 6ae48f92a452bc93fac1aa7c Rob Chrisman As companies around the nation stage in-person or virtual costume contests, here’s some information for you a little off the beaten path. People want to own a home (“no one grows up wanting to be a renter”) regardless of… the amount of daylight? Looking at averages in the Continental United States (not Alaska or Hawaii), the difference between the amount of daylight on the first day of summer and the first day of winter is 5 ½ hours, “cushioned” by adjusting our timepieces. As much of the nation prepares to “fall back” this Sunday, talk again has come up about Congress eliminating this practice. Despite being passed in the House, and pressure from Donald Trump, several senators are holding up legislation that would eliminate changing the clocks. Supporters argue that ending the time change would mean less hassle and provide more daylight during the afternoon, when Americans are most active (except for me cuz that’s my nap time). Opponents say commuters in some states wouldn’t see the sun in winter until after 9 AM, and sunrise in the summer would be at 4 or 5 AM. Good luck with that one, Congress. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are presented by FICO. As the industry's most predictive credit score, FICO Score 10T combines proven performance with deeper insight into borrower behavior to help support a stronger and more resilient housing finance system. Today’s has an interview with ACI Worldwide’s Tom Warsop on how real-time payments and richer payment data could make mortgage funding faster, more certain, and more efficient.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-10302026 Fri, 30 Oct 2026 13:59:33 GMT 6ae4b1689f50a0a93e0d652d Matthew Graham Bonds were initially stronger in the overnight session with 10yr yields briefly falling under 4.90%. The rally generally aligned with overnight losses in the stock market, at least at first. When European markets came online, bonds began drifting more sideways even as stocks gradually declined to new lows. Given that today is month-end and that much of this month has seen quite a lot of volatility, it's reasonable to expect compulsory month-end trades to set the tone. Translation: bonds could do their own thing for their own reasons regardless of what's going on in stocks. Some analysts are reporting that month-end rebalancing models are calling for selling some bonds and buying some stocks, but we wouldn't lose sleep over that one unless stocks end up surging into positive territory.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-10292026 Thu, 29 Oct 2026 21:08:21 GMT 6ae3c4b09f50a0a93e0bad58 Matthew Graham Tech Jitters are Back. Bonds Like It As has been the case for the past several weeks, the near-term fate of the rate rally is dependent on tech jitters. While those had leveled off in a sideways pattern over the first few days of the week, they resurfaced today, both at the NYSE open and close. The 4pm move was bigger for stocks and directly linked to weak guidance in Intel and Amazon earnings releases. Bonds were already moderately stronger on the day after the 9:30am gains, but improved even more after the 4pm NYSE close.  Econ Data / Events Core PCE (m/m) (Sep) 0.3% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev Core PCE (y/y) (Sep) 3.1% vs 3.1% f'cast, 3% prev GDPQ3 3.4% vs 3.2% f'cast, 2.2% prev Jobless Claims (Oct)/24 194.0K vs 199K f'cast, 194K prev Market Movement Recap 09:55 AM fairly sharp rally at 9:30am coincided with NYSE open and heavy losses in a few key tech names Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-10292026 Thu, 29 Oct 2026 20:16:00 GMT 6ae3b037553d5ce3dd8d0509 Matthew Graham After 4 rather uneventful trading days, the bond market (which underlies interest rate movement) experienced a bit more volatility today. Fortunately, it was volatility in a friendly direction. 10yr Treasury yields ended the day at their lowest level since September 22nd. Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest mark since September 23rd for the average lender.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Bond gains coincided with moments of weakness in the stock market, primarily at the 9:30am NYSE open and the 4pm close. Weaker guidance from the likes of Intel and Amazon reinforced the recently cautious narrative surrounding tech and the AI buildout, sending tech stocks sharply lower at 4pm. NOTE: today's mortgage rate index has not yet been updated for any additional lender reprices that may hit in the coming hours. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-10292026 Thu, 29 Oct 2026 15:12:52 GMT 6ae33e963756932a9e7ec1c2 Rob Chrisman Artificial intelligence continues to capture the imagination of a wide range of companies, including lenders. “Why Underwriting Is the Right Problem for AI to Solve First,” is a topic on a recent Thought Leadership piece. It will be a topic on today’s The Big Picture with James Sais, the head of mortgage lending at Fifth Third Bank. You may be thinking about rolling AI out, but who’s in charge, you or it? In its IPO filing Monday, Anthropic (ANT) warned prospective investors that artificial intelligence systems could pose catastrophic risks as they operate with greater autonomy. "Concerns have been raised both within our organization and by other researchers, regulators, policymakers, and industry participants that sufficiently advanced AI systems could, if not developed, deployed, and operated with appropriate safeguards, oversight, and security measures, pose catastrophic or existential risks to humanity, particularly if such systems were misused, replicated, weaponized, or allowed to operate with a high degree of autonomy," it said. And you want this to run your company, or manage your money? (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are presented by FICO. As the industry's most predictive credit score, FICO Score 10T combines proven performance with deeper insight into borrower behavior to help support a stronger and more resilient housing finance system. Today’s has an interview with Sela’s Nate Becker on mortgage voice agents, their performance, adoption, and the future role of loan officers.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full