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Bond Markets Improve Temporarily After Weak Consumer Spending Data
Posted to: Micro News
Friday, May 30, 2014 9:01 AM

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Bond markets had a surprisingly decent overnight session, merely consolidating yesterday's losses at sideways, slightly higher levels.  10yr yields never went above 2.484 and have held under the important 2.47 level so far in the domestic session, but are RIGHT there at the moment (2.4679).  Similarly, MBS opened in line with yesterday's latest levels and have gone no lower.

The first move of the day was positive following a weaker-than-expected report on Consumer Spending.  Here are the details from the Incomes and Outlays data:

  • April spending -0.1 vs +0.2 forecast.  First decline since April 2013
  • April incomes +0.3 vs +0.3 forecast
  • Year-over-year PCE Price Index +1.6 vs +1.1 in March, biggest increase since Nov 2012
  • Inflation-adjusted consumer spending -0.3 vs +0.8 in March

Treasury yields fell to 2.452 after the data and MBS rallied to 103-01 in Fannie 3.5s.  Both have since moved back to the weaker levels of the morning, but haven't broken them.  The next major data is Chicago PMI at 9:45, but a big beat/miss can move markets noticeably at 9:42am (some market participants receive the data 3 minutes early).

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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.67%
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  • 15 Yr FRM 2.95%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 3.62%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 108-28 (0-00)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-17 (-0-04)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 111-30 (0-02)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 10.03%
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  • Refinance Index 11.33%
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  • Purchase Index 8.43%