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Bond Markets Fighting to Hold Ground After Claims Data
Posted to: Micro News
Thursday, March 20, 2014 8:50 AM

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Bond markets improved during Asian market hours and moved back in the other direction during European hours to hit the domestic session mostly unchanged.  Prices began slipping right off the bat and coped with a modest amount of additional weakness after stronger-than-expected claims data.

Initial Jobless Claims

  • 320k vs 325k forecast, 315k previously
  • 4-wk average down to 327k from 330.5k
  • Continued Claims 2.889 mln cs 2.868 mln forecast, 2.855mln previously
  • Thoughts: while higher than last time, 320k claims is a solid print, and the second time in a row under the important 323k level.  Apart from the late 2013 volatility that markets largely disregarded, 323k was about as low as we got until last week.  Keep in mind that today's claims are for last week, and that's the week the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses in it's Establishment Survey to generate the NFP number.

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Despite some additional weakness after the data, the downside drive looks limited for now.  That can obviously change as the morning progresses, but so far Fannie 4.0s haven't been more than an eighth of a point weaker and are currently down only 3/32nds at 103-18.  10yr yields are up just over a bp at 2.784. 

The next round of data is coming up at 10am with Philly Fed and Existing Home Sales.

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