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Bond Markets Reluctantly Follow Geopolitical Risk
Posted to: Micro News
Tuesday, August 27, 2013 9:15 AM
If yesterday afternoon's Kerry speech wasn't enough for bond market to get wholeheartedly involved with the flight to safety move (stock prices down, bond prices up) suggested by equities, today is shaping up differently. The wires are rife with Syria-related headlines--most of them sounding reasonably austere. Here are some highlights:
- GENEVA - VISIT BY U.N. CHEMICAL WEAPONS INSPECTORS IN SYRIA POSTPONED UNTIL WEDNESDAY TO "IMPROVE PREPAREDNESS AND SAFETY" - U.N. STATEMENT - RTRS
- BRITAIN IS CONSIDERING 'PROPORTIONATE RESPONSE' TO SUSPECTED CHEMICAL WEAPONS ATTACK IN SYRIA - PM'S SPOKESMAN - RTRS
- Tuesday, August 27, 2013 1:47:40 AM TURKISH FOREIGN MINISTER SAYS "CRIME AGAINST HUMANITY" CANNOT GO UNANSWERED IN SYRIA, TEST FOR INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY - RTRS
- MOUALEM SAYS SYRIA WILL PRESS ON WITH MILITARY CAMPAIGN DESPITE ANY POSSIBLE FOREIGN STRIKES - RTRS
- Tuesday, August 27, 2013 4:42:12 AM BRITISH PRIME MINISTER CAMERON RECALLS PARLIAMENT FROM SUMMER BREAK TO DISCUSS SYRIA ON THURSDAY - RTRS
- U.S. MILITARY "READY TO GO" IF OBAMA ORDERS ACTION OVER CHEMICAL WEAPONS ATTACK IN SYRIA, U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY TELLS BBC - RTRS
- SYRIA OPPOSITION HAS HANDED WESTERN POWERS LIST OF SUGGESTED TARGETS FOR STRIKE - SOURCES - RTRS
- "The US government asked Greece to provide its military bases in Kalamata and Souda, in case Washington decides to directly intervene in Syria." - Ekathmerini.com
Global markets have been pushing the flight-to-safety bid all night with the onset of European hours seeing the biggest drop for stocks and bonds. Treasuries may be reluctant participants now, but 'reluctant' is the key word. Case in point, S&Ps are down nearly 20 points while 10yr yields are less than 4bps lower so far this morning.
Still, we are indeed seeing bond markets 'play the game,' as it were. Buyers were lined up at the 8:20am CME open and provided another jolt lower for 10yr yields, which are now challenging an important horizontal pivot at 2.75%.
MBS opened a few ticks higher and have improved from there with 4.0s up 7 ticks to 103-12 so far. Moments ago, Case Shiller Home Prices came out slightly weaker than expected, but had no material impact on trading levels. The morning's major data is Consumer Confidence at 10am and the reaction to that--the extent to which bond markets favor the important data over the global headlines---will be informative for the rest of the day and week. As of this moment, the 2.75 zone (the inability to break it) is the most informative development so far.
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