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Pace of Annual Home Price Increases is Quickening
The S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices posted
another set of strong and broad-based annual increases in November 2012. Data released today shows that the 10-City
Composite Index rose 4.5 percent and the 20-City Composite was up 5.5 percent
compared to November 2011. Prices rose
in 19 of the cities the tracked by the indices with only New York showing an
annual decline, 1.2 percent. The
year-over-year increase was greater than that posted in October for all of the
cities except Cleveland where the annual increase was unchanged.
Prices were down by 0.2 percent in the 10-City Composite
and 0.1 percent in the 20-City compared to October's numbers. In October both indices declined 0.2 percent
compared to September. Prices declined
in 10 of the 20 cities in November.
David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee said, "The November
monthly figures were stronger than October, with 10 cities seeing rising prices
versus seven the month before.
"Phoenix and San Francisco were both up 1.4% in November followed by
Minneapolis up 1.0%. On the down side, Chicago was again amongst the weakest
with a drop of 1.3% for November.
"Winter is usually a weak period for housing which explains why we now see
about half the cities with falling month-to-month prices compared to 20 out of
20 seeing rising prices last summer. The better annual price changes also point
to seasonal weakness rather than a reversal in the housing market. Further
evidence that the weakness is seasonal is seen in the seasonally adjusted
figures: only New York saw prices fall on a seasonally adjusted basis while
Cleveland was flat.
Blizter said that regional patterns are shifting as well with the Southwest
including hard-hit Las Vegas and Phoenix staging a strong comeback and Miami
and Tampa in the Southeast close behind. "The sunbelt, which bore the brunt of the
housing collapse, is back in a leadership position. California is also doing
well while the northeast and industrial Midwest is lagging somewhat," he
said.
Phoenix is, in fact, staging a very strong comeback. Prices have rising 22.8 percent over the last
12 months, the largest increase of any of the cities, and November was the
seventh consecutive month it posted a double-digit annual return.
Blitzer said, "Housing is clearly recovering. Prices are rising as are both
new and existing home sales. Existing home sales in November were 5.0 million,
highest since November 2009. New Home sales at 398,000 were the highest since
June 2010. These figures confirm that housing is contributing to economic
growth."
As of November average home prices nationally have returned to the levels
of autumn 2003 and are down from their respective peaks in June/July 2006 by
about 30 percent. Measured from the
recent lows prices hit in early 2012 both composites have recovered by 8 to 9
percent.
[Image or graph removed from email. View full article with images]
The cities posting negative month over month returns in
November were Boston, Chicago and New York (all of which have seen declines in
six out of the last 12 months), Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Portland
(OR), Tampa and Washington DC
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are constructed to accurately
track the price path of typical single-family homes located in the relevant
metropolitan areas. The indices have a
base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of
150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home
located within the subject market.
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Pace of Annual Home Price Increases is Quickening
The S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices posted
another set of strong and broad-based annual increases in November 2012. Data released today shows that the 10-City
Composite Index rose 4.5 percent and the 20-City Composite was up 5.5 percent
compared to November 2011. Prices rose
in 19 of the cities the tracked by the indices with only New York showing an
annual decline, 1.2 percent. The
year-over-year increase was greater than that posted in October for all of the
cities except Cleveland where the annual increase was unchanged.
Prices were down by 0.2 percent in the 10-City Composite
and 0.1 percent in the 20-City compared to October's numbers. In October both indices declined 0.2 percent
compared to September. Prices declined
in 10 of the 20 cities in November.
David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee said, "The November
monthly figures were stronger than October, with 10 cities seeing rising prices
versus seven the month before.
"Phoenix and San Francisco were both up 1.4% in November followed by
Minneapolis up 1.0%. On the down side, Chicago was again amongst the weakest
with a drop of 1.3% for November.
"Winter is usually a weak period for housing which explains why we now see
about half the cities with falling month-to-month prices compared to 20 out of
20 seeing rising prices last summer. The better annual price changes also point
to seasonal weakness rather than a reversal in the housing market. Further
evidence that the weakness is seasonal is seen in the seasonally adjusted
figures: only New York saw prices fall on a seasonally adjusted basis while
Cleveland was flat.
Blizter said that regional patterns are shifting as well with the Southwest
including hard-hit Las Vegas and Phoenix staging a strong comeback and Miami
and Tampa in the Southeast close behind. "The sunbelt, which bore the brunt of the
housing collapse, is back in a leadership position. California is also doing
well while the northeast and industrial Midwest is lagging somewhat," he
said.
Phoenix is, in fact, staging a very strong comeback. Prices have rising 22.8 percent over the last
12 months, the largest increase of any of the cities, and November was the
seventh consecutive month it posted a double-digit annual return.
Blitzer said, "Housing is clearly recovering. Prices are rising as are both
new and existing home sales. Existing home sales in November were 5.0 million,
highest since November 2009. New Home sales at 398,000 were the highest since
June 2010. These figures confirm that housing is contributing to economic
growth."
As of November average home prices nationally have returned to the levels
of autumn 2003 and are down from their respective peaks in June/July 2006 by
about 30 percent. Measured from the
recent lows prices hit in early 2012 both composites have recovered by 8 to 9
percent.
The cities posting negative month over month returns in
November were Boston, Chicago and New York (all of which have seen declines in
six out of the last 12 months), Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Portland
(OR), Tampa and Washington DC
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are constructed to accurately
track the price path of typical single-family homes located in the relevant
metropolitan areas. The indices have a
base value of 100 in January 2000; thus, for example, a current index value of
150 translates to a 50% appreciation rate since January 2000 for a typical home
located within the subject market.
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