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Mortgage News Daily combines the expertise of some of the housing industry's leading minds with the power of social media to offer an always lively, constantly evolving web community. MND communicates breaking news, streams video, and provides expert opinion and commentary to a community of interested market professionals and curious consumers.What Might Move Mortgage Rates in the Week Ahead?
The road got a little bumpy, but last week came to a close with
consumer borrowing costs once again priced near record lows. We were
expecting the ups and downs of related markets to play a larger role in
the behavior of mortgage rates, but in the end, lender loan pricing
strategies did not follow the directional guidance offered by
mortgage-backed securities (MBS) prices in the secondary mortgage
market. Instead, the movement of mortgage rates was more reflective of
competition and "turn times" in the primary mortgage market. This has
been a theme lately...
What do we think will move mortgage rates in the week ahead?
Based
on shifting tones in the investing marketplace, it's tempting to say
mortgage rates might finally re-attach to the movement of MBS prices in the secondary
market, but we were proven wrong when we made that assumption last week.
Maybe not totally though, perhaps our forecast was just a tad early.
One
of the biggest reasons mortgage rates have managed to hold steady near
record lows is market participants (Do you have a 401(k)? Yes? Then
you are a market participant!) have been unusually uncertain about the
health of the economy. In an effort to protect their principal
investment from unexpected events in the marketplace, these investors have allocated their funds into "risk
averse" assets like U.S. Treasuries and Agency Mortgage-backed
Securities.
We refer to this as a "flight to safety". This happens
when investors are nervous about owning risky assets like stocks but do
not want to miss out on earning a return on their funds, so they move
their money into risk-free U.S Treasury debt and agency MBS to provide a
safe-haven AND an investment return. To remind readers, as benchmark
Treasury yields fall, prices of mortgage-backed securities move higher,
which allows lenders to offer lower mortgage rates. As Treasury yields
rise, mortgage-backed security prices are pressured lower, which forces
lenders to push mortgage rates higher.
The "flight to
safety" has been a staple in our commentary over the last few months.
Uncertain times have led a huge herd of investors into risk averse
assets, helping drive mortgage rates to record low levels. More lately
it's felt like nothing has been able to break the "flight to safety", demand for mortgage-backed securities has been huge!
With that in
mind...
When asked "What Will Move Mortgage Rates in the Week Ahead?" our answer is NOTHING!
That is unless the herd of investors who've parked their money in
"flight to safety" assets start to favor riskier investments like stocks. It going to take a big old rally in stocks to convince the
"flight to safety" crowd that it's time to come out from under their risk
averse rock. This was proven today. Stocks rallied considerably, yet
both Treasury yields and mortgage rates barely budged!
The best 30 year fixed mortgage rates remain in the 4.375% to 4.625% range. The "best execution" rate for a well-qualified borrower is still 4.50%, for both conventional and FHA/VA. No borrower should be quoted a rate over 5.25%
Please don't read the above comments as "nothing will move mortgage rates from record lows this week". In fact, we
aren't sure how much longer this resilience will last. We're feeling more defensive than we have in weeks. Mortgage-backed securities are extremely expensive, the major lenders look to be near full-capacity, and stocks are gaining technical momentum. If stocks extend their recent rally, the "flight to safety" will eventually be put to the test
and so will record low mortgage rates, which are still attainable.
Remember: the "flight to safety"
is the glue holding mortgage rates near record lows, if it breaks down,
mortgage rates will surely rise for floaters and fence sitters looking to close in the next 30 days.
HERE is an economic calendar for the Week Ahead
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This email was sent to you by:
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Mortgage News Daily
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Anonymous Anonymous |
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Message:
YOUR MESSAGE HERE
What Might Move Mortgage Rates in the Week Ahead?
The road got a little bumpy, but last week came to a close with
consumer borrowing costs once again priced near record lows. We were
expecting the ups and downs of related markets to play a larger role in
the behavior of mortgage rates, but in the end, lender loan pricing
strategies did not follow the directional guidance offered by
mortgage-backed securities (MBS) prices in the secondary mortgage
market. Instead, the movement of mortgage rates was more reflective of
competition and "turn times" in the primary mortgage market. This has
been a theme lately...
What do we think will move mortgage rates in the week ahead?
Based
on shifting tones in the investing marketplace, it's tempting to say
mortgage rates might finally re-attach to the movement of MBS prices in the secondary
market, but we were proven wrong when we made that assumption last week.
Maybe not totally though, perhaps our forecast was just a tad early.
One
of the biggest reasons mortgage rates have managed to hold steady near
record lows is market participants (Do you have a 401(k)? Yes? Then
you are a market participant!) have been unusually uncertain about the
health of the economy. In an effort to protect their principal
investment from unexpected events in the marketplace, these investors have allocated their funds into "risk
averse" assets like U.S. Treasuries and Agency Mortgage-backed
Securities.
We refer to this as a "flight to safety". This happens
when investors are nervous about owning risky assets like stocks but do
not want to miss out on earning a return on their funds, so they move
their money into risk-free U.S Treasury debt and agency MBS to provide a
safe-haven AND an investment return. To remind readers, as benchmark
Treasury yields fall, prices of mortgage-backed securities move higher,
which allows lenders to offer lower mortgage rates. As Treasury yields
rise, mortgage-backed security prices are pressured lower, which forces
lenders to push mortgage rates higher.
The "flight to
safety" has been a staple in our commentary over the last few months.
Uncertain times have led a huge herd of investors into risk averse
assets, helping drive mortgage rates to record low levels. More lately
it's felt like nothing has been able to break the "flight to safety", demand for mortgage-backed securities has been huge!
With that in
mind...
When asked "What Will Move Mortgage Rates in the Week Ahead?" our answer is NOTHING!
That is unless the herd of investors who've parked their money in
"flight to safety" assets start to favor riskier investments like stocks. It going to take a big old rally in stocks to convince the
"flight to safety" crowd that it's time to come out from under their risk
averse rock. This was proven today. Stocks rallied considerably, yet
both Treasury yields and mortgage rates barely budged!
The best 30 year fixed mortgage rates remain in the 4.375% to 4.625% range. The "best execution" rate for a well-qualified borrower is still 4.50%, for both conventional and FHA/VA. No borrower should be quoted a rate over 5.25%
Please don't read the above comments as "nothing will move mortgage rates from record lows this week". In fact, we
aren't sure how much longer this resilience will last. We're feeling more defensive than we have in weeks. Mortgage-backed securities are extremely expensive, the major lenders look to be near full-capacity, and stocks are gaining technical momentum. If stocks extend their recent rally, the "flight to safety" will eventually be put to the test
and so will record low mortgage rates, which are still attainable.
Remember: the "flight to safety"
is the glue holding mortgage rates near record lows, if it breaks down,
mortgage rates will surely rise for floaters and fence sitters looking to close in the next 30 days.
HERE is an economic calendar for the Week Ahead
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