The Day Ahead: U.S. July New Home Sales, FOMC Minutes
Housing data will be center of attention on Tuesday with the release of U.S. new home sales for July and the June Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
U.S. new home sales are expected to fall 0.9% to 525k in July following June's decline of 0.6%. Meanwhile, the Case-Shiller home price composite for June is expected to fall 16.2% year-over-year following May's 15.8% decline.
"Americans continue to be faced with elevated borrowing costs, tighter lending conditions, fewer job opportunities, moderating real wages and an end to large fiscal stimulus packages," economists from Scotia Capital wrote.
U.S. regional manufacturing data will also be released on Tuesday with the August Richmond Fed manufacturing index, which is expected to show a reading of -10, up from July's level of -16.
John Sidawi, vice-president and senior FX trader at Federated Investment Management, said he is not expecting Tuesday's data to have a big impact on markets. Sidawi expects the markets will pay closer attention to the liquidity problems that Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are currently experiencing
"What's driving markets right now is lack of liquidity in equity markets as well as foreign exchange markets and also the tension around financials," he said "If something comes out regarding Lehman's that is positive, regardless of the data that will override it."
Finally, in the afternoon, markets will receive the minutes from the FOMC monetary policy meeting from Aug. 4 and 5.
Economists will be reviewing the minutes closely to see if there is any indication of what direction future monetary policy might take.
"Within the Fed, opinions are divided between those who would like to see higher interest rates in order to bring down inflationary pressures and those who prefer a prolonged pause given the ongoing deterioration of economic activity and the recent decline in commodity prices," wrote economists from BBVA. "In our view, the Fed is likely to keep its target rate unaltered until the second half of 2009."
In Canada, markets will receive third-quarter earnings data from BMO and Scotiabank. Furthermore, Bank of Canada Deputy Governor David Longworth will be speaking at Canadian Association for Business Economics. The topic will be 'Work in Progress: The Bank of Canada's Response to the Financial Turbulence'.
All times in EDT.
7:45 US ICSC Chain Store Sales W/E August 23 Y/Y (Prior: +2.4%)
8:30 CA Employment Insurance for June
8:55 US Redbook Retail Sales W/E August 23 Y/Y (Prior: +1.3%)
9:00 US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index June Exp: 167.2 Prior: 168.5
9:00 US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (Y/Y) June Exp: -16.2% Prior: -15.8%
9:00 US S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI Q2 Prior: 159.2
9:00 US S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI (Y/Y) Q2 Exp: -16.2% Prior: -14.1%
10:00 US Consumer Confidence August Exp: 53.0 Prior: 51.9
10:00 US New Home Sales July Exp: 525K Prior: 530K
10:00 US New Home Sales (M/M) July Exp: -0.9% Prior: -0.6%
10:00 US House Price Index (M/M) June Exp: -0.4% Prior: -0.3%
10:00 US House Price Purchase Index (Q/Q) Q2 Exp: -1.5% Prior: -1.7%
10:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index August Exp: -10 Prior: -16
12:15 CA BOC Deputy Governor David Longworth will Speak on the response to the financial turbulence
13:00 US Treasury to Sell $20B in 52-Week Bills
13:00 US Treasury to Sell$29B in 4-Week Bills
13:00 CA BMO announces Q3 earnings results
13:00 CA ScotiaBank announces Q3 earnings results
14:00 US Minutes of Aug. 5 FOMC Meeting
17:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence Prior: -49
By Steve Stecyk and edited by Nancy Girgis