The Week Ahead: U.S. Housing Sales, Case-Shiller Home Prices
Economists, strategists and traders do not expect next week's releases to shed any new light on the current economic environment. Markets will receive more data on the U.S. housing market, July's durable goods orders, PCE report, and minutes from the FOMC Aug. 5 meeting. In Canada the only data of significance will be Q2 GDP.
In other U.S. releases, markets will receive regional manufacturing data with the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey and the ISM Chicago PMI, preliminary second quarter GDP and two-year and five-year note auctions.
George Adell, fixed income strategist from Commerce Capital Markets, said the data aren't providing any long term direction for markets. The result, he said, will be more volatility as markets react to the latest headlines from the media.
"The overall range trade remains in effect here and that is all linked to the Fed neutrality," he said. "Generally markets react favourably to the housing data. We do have month end, and bonds remain firm into month end."
Boris Schlossberg, director of currency at GFT Forex, said although the recent run in the bull market is over, he is still expecting the greenback to remain well bid. He said he is expecting the euro to remain in a range of 1.47 to 1.49 USD and the Yen 110.0 and 108.0 USD.
He added he isn't expecting a lot of major moves in currency markets because of light trading in the currency markets.
"Most of the dealers are trying to squeeze the last week of sunshine and everyone is hoping for no news because no one wants to deal with risk in the last days of August," he said.
Schlossberg added that commodity markets and geopolitical concerns could provide the most risk for markets.
"Oil seems to be the primary variable that is causing volatility across all asset classes," he said. "Everyone hopes that everything will be quiet but things could get ugly very quickly if geopolitical situations worsen."
Currencies aren't the only markets plagued by light volume. Max Bublitz, fixed income strategist from SCM Advisors said last week markets are consolidating in what has been summer trading, and he expects to see similar moves next week.
"There is not a lot of new news in the markets and it's going to be the same old story. But the fact that it is thin trading anything could happen," he said.
In Canada markets will receive second quarter GDP figures.
Steve Butler, director of currency trading at the Bank of Nova Scotia said markets will be anxious to find out if it was a positive or negative number.
First quarter GDP was negative 0.3% and Butler said a second negative print will raise recession talk.
"I think if we get a positive number the markets will breathe a sigh of release. Everyone is very concerned about the classical definition of a recession. It won't be a great number but as long as it's positive it will be good for the markets," he said.
Butler added the data won't force the Bank of Canada into taking action one way or another.
"I think it will be very important but there is a lot more data to be worked out and the Bank of Canada is going to remain in wait and see mode," he said.
All times in EDT
The week starts with the release of U.S. existing home sales, which is expected to rise 0.8% following June's decline of 2.6%.
10:00 US Existing Home Sales July Exp: 4.90M Prior: 4.86M
10:00 US Existing Home Sales (M/M) July Exp: +0.8% Prior: -2.6%
11:30 US Treasury to Sell $11B 30-Day Cash Management Bills
13:00 US Treasury to Sell $28B 3-Month Bills
13:00 US Treasury to Sell $27B 6-Month Bills
There is more housing data for the markets to digest. New home sales are expected to fall 0.9% in July following June's decline of 0.6%. The Case-Shiller home price index for June is expected to fall 16.2%, following 15.8% decline in May.
U.S. regional manufacturing data will also be released with the Richmond Fed manufacturing index which is expected to show a reading of -10, up from July's level of -16.
Finally, in the afternoon markets will receive the minutes from the FOMC monetary policy meeting from August 5.
9:00 US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index June Exp: 167.2 Prior: 168.5
9:00 US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (Y/Y) June Exp: -16.2% Prior: -15.8%
9:00 US S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI Q2 Prior: 159.2
9:00 US S&P/Case-Shiller US HPI (Y/Y) Q2 Exp: 16.3% Prior: -14.1%
10:00 US Consumer Confidence August Exp: 53.0 Prior: 51.9
10:00 US New Home Sales July Exp: 525K Prior: 530K
10:00 US New Home Sales (M/M) July Exp: -0.9% Prior: -0.6%
10:00 US House Price Index (M/M) June Exp: -0.4% Prior: -0.3%
10:00 US House Price Purchase Index (Q/Q) Q2 Exp: -1.6%
10:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index August Exp: -10 Prior: -16
13:00 US Treasury to Sell $20B 52-Week Bills
13:00 US Treasury to Sell 4-Week Bills
14:00 US Minutes of Aug. 5 FOMC Meeting
17:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence Prior: -49
U.S. durable goods report for July will be released, which are expected to rise 0.1% following a 0.8% rise in June. The consensus for durable goods excluding transportation is for a fall of 0.5% following July's rise of 2.0%.
In Fed speakers, Atlanta Fed president, Dennis Lockhart will speak on inflation at an event at Georgia State University.
7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications W/E August 22 Prior: -1.5%
8:30 US Durable Goods Orders July Exp: +0.1% Prior: +0.8%
8:30 US Durables Ex Transportation July Exp: -0.5% Prior: +2.0%
8:35 US Atlanta Fed's Lockhart to Speak on Inflation at Georgia State
10:35 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories W/E August 22 Prior: +9390K
10:35 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories W/E August 22 Prior: -6202K
10:35 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory W/E August 22 Prior: +481K
10:35 US DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization W/E August 22 Prior: -.20%
13:00 US Treasury to Sell 2-Year Notes
U.S. second-quarter GDP will be the focus of the day. Economists expect the second print of GDP to show a rise of 2.7% following a previous rise of 1.9%.
Initial jobless claims will also garner market attention with the economists forecasting 425,000 claims for the week ending August 23, down from the previous week's claims of 432,000.
8:30 CA Current Account Q2 Exp: +$8.0B Prior: +$5.6B
8:30 US GDP (Q/Q) (Annualized) Q2 Preliminary Exp: +2.8% Prior: +1.9%
8:30 US Personal Consumption Q2 Preliminary Exp: +1.6% Prior: +1.5%
8:30 US GDP Price Index Q2 Preliminary Exp: +1.1% Prior: +1.1%
8:30 US Core PCE (Q/Q) Q2 Preliminary Exp: +2.1% Prior: +2.1%
8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E August 23 Exp: +425K Prior: +432K
8:30 US Continuing Claims W/E August 16 Exp: 3380K Prior: 3362K
10:30 US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change Previous 88 Bcf
13:00 US Treasury to Sell 5-Year Notes
Markets will anxiously wait for Canadian second quarter GDP figures, which are expected to show a 0.1% rise following a 0.1% decline in the first-quarter.
In the U.S. markets will receive more inflation information with the release of the July PCE data and personal income and spending data. More PCE is expected to rise 0.3% in July, following a 0.6% rise in June. The annualized rate is also expected to tick up with a rise of 2.4% following June's increase of 2.3%.
The week also ends with more regional manufacturing data from the U.S. the ISM Chicago PMI and the NAPM Milwaukee surveys will be released.
8:30 CA Industrial Product Price (M/M) July Exp: +0.7% Prior: +1.3%
8:30 CA Raw Materials Price Index (M/M) July Exp: +0.2% Prior: +4.4%
8:30 CA Gross Domestic Product (M/M) June Exp: +0.1% Prior: -0.1%
8:30 CA Quarterly GDP Annualized Q2 Exp: +0.6% Prior: -0.3%
8:30 US Personal Income July Exp: -0.1% Prior: +0.1%
8:30 US Personal Spending July Exp: +0.3% Prior: +0.6%
8:30 US PCE Deflator (Y/Y) July Exp: +4.5% Prior: +4.1%
8:30 US PCE Core (M/M) July Exp: +0.3% Prior: +0.3%
8:30 US PCE Core (Y/Y) July Exp: +2.4% Prior: +2.3%
9:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager August Exp: 50.0 Prior: 50.8
10:00 US U. of Michigan/Reuters Confidence August Final Exp: 62.0 Prior: 61.7
10:00 US NAPM-Milwaukee August Prior: 44
By Neils Christensen and edited by Megan Ainscow