Markets are currently pricing in the following probabilities for future interest rate moves as of the close on Wednesday:
FED- OIS Implied Rates
Markets are pricing in a 12% chance of a 25bp hike by the next meeting on Sept. 16.
Markets are pricing in a 21% chance of a 25bp hike by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 50bp hike and a 63% chance of a 75bp hike by June 24, 2009.
BOC - OIS Implied Rates
Markets are pricing in a 39% chance of a 25bp cut by the next meeting on Sept. 3.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25bp cut and a 33% chance of a 50bp cut by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of 25bp cut and a 82% chance of a 50bp cut by June 9, 2009.
BOJ - OIS Implied Rates
Markets are pricing in a 1% chance of a hike by the next meeting on Sept. 8.
Markets are pricing in a 6% chance of a 25bp cut by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 10% chance of a 25bp cut by Feb. 9, 2009.
RBA - OIS Implied Rates
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25bp cut and a 29% chance of a 50bp cut by the next meeting on Sept. 2.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 50bp cut and a 95% of a 97bp cut by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 75bp cut and a 94% chance of a 100bp cut by April 7, 2009.
BOE - SONIA Implied Rate
Markets are pricing in a 2% chance of a 25bp cut by the next meeting on Sept. 4.
Markets are pricing in an 82% chance of a 25bp cut by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of a 25bp cut and a 89% chance of a 50bp cut by March 5, 2009.
ECB - EONIA Implied Rate
Markets are pricing in a 10% chance of a 25bp cut by the next meeting on Sept. 4.
Markets are pricing in a 30% chance of a 25bp cut by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 68% chance of a 25bp cut by March 5, 2009.
By Ryan Szporer and edited by Nancy Girgis
©CEP News Ltd.