Markets are currently pricing in the following probabilities for future interest rate moves as of the close on Monday:
FED - OIS Implied Rates
Markets are pricing in a 22% chance of a 25bp hike by the next meeting on Sept. 16.
Markets are pricing in a 38% chance of a 25bp hike by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of two 25bp hikes, and a 75% chance of a third 25bp hike by June 24, 2009.
BOC - OIS Implied Rates
As of 6:35 a.m. EDT Tuesday, markets are pricing in a 32% chance of a 25bp cut by the next meeting on Sept. 3.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of one 25bp cut, and a 72% chance of a second 25bp cut by year-end.
BOJ - OIS Implied Rates
Markets are pricing in a 3% chance of a 25bp hike by the next meeting on Aug. 19.
Markets are pricing in a 3% chance of a 25bp hike by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 10% chance of a 25bp hike by Jan. 22, 2009.
RBA - OIS Implied Rates
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of one 25bp cut and 27% chance for another 25bp cut by the next meeting on Sept. 2.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of two 25bp cuts and 65% of a third 25bp cut by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 100% chance of three 25bp cuts, and a 57% chance of a third 25bp cut by March 31, 2009.
BOE - SONIA Implied Rate
Markets are pricing in a 31% chance of a 25bp hike by the next meeting on Sept. 4.
Markets are pricing in a 20% chance of a 25bp hike by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 54% chance of a 25bp cut by March 5, 2009.
ECB - EONIA Implied Rate
Markets are pricing in a 1% chance of a 25bp hike by the next meeting on Sept. 4.
Markets are pricing in a 23% chance of a 25bp cut by year-end.
Markets are pricing in a 50% chance of a 25bp cut by March 5, 2009.
By Ryan Szporer and edited by Nancy Girgis
©CEP News Ltd.