The Week Ahead: U.S. Housing Data and Canadian Inflation
According to economists and strategists, the U.S. housing market is going to be the top news in the U.S. Along with new and existing home sales, the Fed beige book and the durable goods report will provide important glimpses into the economy. In Canada, markets will pay attention to retail sales and inflation data.
In Canada, the data will play a secondary role for markets. George Androulidakis, director of FX for the National Bank of Canada, said the story in currency markets is energy. When oil sold off, he added, the loonie followed suit and he expects the weakness to continue.
"The selloff in crude oil so far hasn't completely weakened the dollar but it has stopped it its run," he said.
Androulidakis added retail sales and inflation will be important but the impact will be limited, as the Bank of Canada has made it clear they are on hold for the foreseeable future.
"I don't think the data next week will rock the bank into short term moves," he said.
Energy markets will also rule Canadian equities, according to Tony Demarin, chief investment officer at BCV Financial. He said while the data will be important the TSX will respond to second quarter earnings from energy companies.
He added with higher energy prices, he is expecting companies to beat street expectations.
"I think stocks right now are driven by earnings and the TSX will continue to do well if Canadian energy companies show positive earnings."
Looking at North American equities, Demarin said there have been more surprises with second-quarter earnings, which is positive for markets and may point to an interim bottom, but that will depend the housing industry and whether it continues to weaken.
On Thursday, U.S. markets will receive existing home sales, which are expected to fall 1.1% following a previous rise of 2.0%. On Friday, new home sales are forecasted to fall 1.5% following May's 2.5% fall.
Paul Mendelson, chief investment officer from Windham Financial Services, said because expectations are so low for the housing market, any signs of improvement could help boost markets.
"I don't think we will see the housing market come ripping back but right now people are looking for stabilization," he said.
He added a lot of markets will continue to take their direction from second-quarter earnings, which means a lot of volatility in the coming weeks.
"Right now earnings are painting a mixed picture and right now there isn't a lot of direction," he said. "Right now we are stuck in a channel, trading between 2006 lows, which is very strong support and January's lows which is the new resistance level."
Mendelson added he will also be paying attention to the Beige book because of its outlook on the economy. He will also focus on jobless claims.
"As long as jobless claims stay under 400,000 then I think it will be okay. If we start going above that level there will be more concerns about the economy and the labour market," he said.
All times in EDT
Monday: The week starts off slow with the release of U.S. leading indicators for June, which are expected to fall 0.1% following May's rise of 0.1%.
10:00 US Leading Indicators June Exp: -0.1% Prior: +0.1%
10:30 US Treasury to Sell $9B in 9-Day Cash Management Bills
13:00 US Treasury to Sell $24B 3-Month Bills
13:00 US Treasury to Sell $23 B 6-Month Bills
11:00 US TSY's Ryan to speak on Capital Markets
Tuesday: Markets will focus on Canadian data with the release of Canadian retail sales. Economists expect retail sales less autos to rise 0.6% following a previous rise of 1.1%. In the U.S., markets will receive the Richmond Fed manufacturing index, which is expected to come in at -10 following a previous reading of -12.
8:10 US Paulson to Speak in New York on U.S. Economy, Markets
8:30 CA Retail Sales (M/M) May Exp: +0.6% Prior: +0.6%
8:30 CA Retail Sales Less Autos (M/M) May Exp: +0.8% Prior: +1.1%
8:30 CA Employment Insurance for May
8:30 US Fed's Plosser Speaks in Pennsylvania on U.S. Economy
10:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index July Exp: -9 Prior: -12
10:00 US House Price Index (M/M) May Exp: -0.6% Prior: -0.8%
10:30 CA BOC Treasury Bill Auction
11:15 CA BOC Bond Auction
11:30 US Treasury to Sell 4-Week Bills
13:00 US Treasury to Sell $6B 20-Year TIPS; Reopening
17:00 US ABC Consumer Confidence W/W July 20 Exp: -42 Prior: -41
Wednesday: Markets will once again focus on Canadian data will the release of the June inflation report. The bank of Canada core CPI is expected to rise to 1.6% following May's rise of 1.5%. The Bank of Canada is also holding a conference and Fed members Frederic Mishkin, Boston Fed president and Donald Kohn, Fed governor will speak at the event. In the afternoon market participants will be anxious to read the Fed Beige book.
7:00 CA Consumer Price Index (M/M) June Exp: +0.6% Prior: +1.0%
7:00 CA Consumer Price Index (Y/Y) June Exp: +2.9% Prior: +2.2%
7:00 CA Bank Canada CPI Core (M/M) June Exp: +0.2% Prior: +0.3%
7:00 CA Bank Canada CPI Core (Y/Y) June Exp: +1.6% Prior: +1.5%
7:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications 18-July Prior: +1.7%
9:00 US Fed's Mishkin Speaks at Bank of Canada Conference
10:35 US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories W/E July 18 Prior: +2952K
10:35 US DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories W/E July 18 Prior: +2472K
10:35 US DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory W/E July 18 Prior: +3189K
10:35 US DOE U.S. Refinery Utilization W/E July 18 Prior: +0.33%
11:15 US Fed's Kohn Speaks on Transparency at Bank of Canada Conference
13:00 US Treasury to Sell 2-Year Notes
14:00 US Fed's Beige Book
Thursday: The week starts to pick up in the U.S. with the first of two major housing reports. Markets will receive June existing home sales, which are expected to fall 1.1% following May's rise of 2.0%.
8:30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E July 19 Exp: +380K Prior: +366K
8:30 US Continuing Claims W/E July 12 Exp: 3175K Prior: 3122K
10:00 US Existing Home Sales June Exp: 4.94M Prior: 4.99M
10:00 US Existing Home Sales (M/M) June Exp: -1.2% Prior: +2.0%
10:00 US NY Fed's Geithner, SEC's Cox to Testify Before House Committee
10:35 US EIA Natural Gas Storage Change 18-July Prior: +104 Bcf
13:00 US Treasury to Sell 5-Year Notes
Friday: The week ends on a busy note with the release of more important housing and manufacturing data. The consensus for June new home sales is calling for a fall of 1.5% following May's decline of 2.5%. In other data, economists expect June's U.S. durable goods ex-transportation to come in flat following a 0.9% fall in May. The headline numbers are expected to fall 0.3% following a previous flat reading.
8:30 US Durable Goods Orders June Exp: -0.4% Prior: +0.0%
8:30 US Durables Ex Transportation June Exp: 0.2% Prior: -0.9%
10:00 US University of Michigan/Reuters Confidence July Final Exp: 56.3 Prior: 56.6
10:00 US New Home Sales June Exp: 503K Prior: 512K
10:00 US New Home Sales (M/M) June Exp: -1.8% Prior: -2.5%
By Neils Christensen and edited by Cristina Markham